GoTo：EBITDA轉盈，期待TikTok助力
GoTo: EBITDA Turns Profitable, Anticipating Boost from TikTok Collaboration

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

GoTo：EBITDA轉盈，期待TikTok助力

近期印尼網約車服務商暨電商GoTo(IDX: GOTO)公告2023Q4與2023全年財報，繼競爭對手Grab(NASDAQ: GRAB)之後，GoTo也踏上EBITDA轉盈之路。GoTo轉盈雖不令人意外，但由於過往其電商事業對集團盈利增長不會給投資人很大期待，現在依據其與TikTok所簽的協議來看，等於每季能坐收保護費，看來這會是GoTo在2024年全年轉盈的最好支柱。

GoTo在2023Q4的集團Adjusted EBITDA終於轉盈，從2022Q4虧損1.96億美金(3.1兆印尼盾)轉虧為盈為盈利486萬美金(770億印尼盾)，2023全年集團Adjusted EBITDA虧損也減少77%至2.34億美金(3.7兆印尼盾)。與Grab收入與盈利都能增長相比，GoTo在盈利的過程中，相對於2022年同期，隨選服務事業(包括網約車與配送服務)與電商事業的交易額都處於降低，可以理解為這是個擠去專門"薅羊毛"的低貢獻度客戶的過程，雙方運營實力已有不同。目前來看，GoTo整體的盈利數據仍不具規模，隨選服務事業盈利約1,509萬美金，Grab為2.78億，僅為Grab的5%多一點；而其交易額8.81億美金也僅約Grab的30%，規模經濟的程度也還不夠，從這個數據也可以理解為，單從隨選服務來看，兩者的競爭中，GoTo還是以守勢居多。

比較值得注意的是，在GoTo集團的組成中，其電商事業(Tokopedia)能為集團帶來的整合效益一直存疑，本季電商事業結算轉盈1,408萬美金，雖仍略低於隨選服務事業，但以其過往的虧損"實力"來說，海擇資本認為這成績不算差。且GoTo已完成了與TikTok的交易，將Tokopedia平台與TikTok的電子商務業務合併，由於合併的時間點是1月，是以本季轉盈還不計入TikTok貢獻的常規佣金收入。根據GoTo提供的公告與試算，雖然合併公司是由TikTok取得控股權，但GoTo能根據訂單的交易額規模取得階梯式的佣金，若以Q3的數據試算，GoTo能取得3.9‰的佣金收入；千分比的分潤看起來不大，但是當季TikTok印尼就有29億美金的交易額，算起來可以分得1,140萬美金，佔GoTo在Q4電商事業收入的7.5%。當然，GoTo能以什麼姿勢在2024全年轉盈，後續還是要看自己努力，但TikTok的月活躍在印尼應該有超過1.3億的實力，潛力可觀，而這筆收入又等於印尼政府捧來送給GoTo的收入，其實GoTo是有很好二次創業起點重新翻身。

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Today's Haize Viewpoint

GoTo: EBITDA Turns Profitable, Anticipating Boost from TikTok Collaboration

The Indonesian ride-hailing and e-commerce company GoTo (IDX: GOTO) recently announced its Q4 2023 and full-year financial results. Following its competitor Grab (NASDAQ: GRAB), GoTo has also achieved a positive EBITDA. While GoTo's shift to profitability is not surprising, the previous modest expectations from its e-commerce business did not hold much promise for investors. Now, based on the agreement signed with TikTok, it appears that GoTo will have a steady income from protection fees every quarter, which could be a strong support for its profitability throughout 2024.

In Q4 2023, GoTo's group adjusted EBITDA turned positive, moving from a loss of $196 million (3.1 trillion Indonesian Rupiah) in Q4 2022 to a profit of $4.86 million (770 billion Indonesian Rupiah). For the entire year, the group’s adjusted EBITDA loss decreased by 77% to $234 million (3.7 trillion Indonesian Rupiah). Compared to Grab, which saw growth in both revenue and profits, GoTo's transaction volumes in on-demand services (including ride-hailing and delivery services) and e-commerce were reduced compared to the same period in 2022. This can be seen as a process of eliminating low-contribution customers who mainly exploit promotional offers, showing a divergence in operational strength. Currently, GoTo's profitability is still not substantial, with on-demand services generating a profit of about $15.09 million, which is just over 5% of Grab’s $278 million; and its transaction volume of $881 million is only about 30% of Grab's, indicating a lack of scale economy.

Of particular note is GoTo's e-commerce business (Tokopedia), which has always been questionable in terms of its ability to provide integrated benefits to the group. This quarter, the e-commerce business turned a profit of $14.08 million, although it is still slightly lower than the on-demand services. However, given its past losses, Haize Capital believes this performance is not bad. GoTo has completed a deal with TikTok to merge the Tokopedia platform with TikTok’s e-commerce operations, which began in January. Therefore, the profit this quarter does not include regular commission income contributed by TikTok. According to GoTo’s announcements and calculations, although TikTok acquired the controlling stake, GoTo would receive a tiered commission based on the order transaction volume. Using Q3 data as an example, GoTo would receive a 0.39% commission; while this percentage seems small, TikTok's transaction volume in Indonesia for the season was $2.9 billion, potentially earning GoTo $11.4 million, which accounts for 7.5% of GoTo’s Q4 e-commerce revenue. Looking forward, GoTo’s profitability in 2024 will depend on its own efforts, but with TikTok’s monthly active users in Indonesia potentially exceeding 130 million, the potential is significant. This income is akin to a gift from the Indonesian government to GoTo, providing a great starting point for a business turnaround.

標籤 Label： GOTO  GRAB  Gojek  TikTok  Tokopedia