滴滴：未全面轉盈，但規模量級已能與Uber匹敵
Didi: Not fully profitable yet, but its scale is now comparable to Uber's.

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

滴滴：未全面轉盈，但規模量級已能與Uber匹敵

滴滴(OTC: DIDIY)近期公告2023Q4與2023全年財報，公司雖然仍未全面轉盈，但規模量級已能與Uber匹敵，所以本次海擇資本也將運營相關數據與Uber(NYSE: UBER)對比。值得注意的是，滴滴國際事業的體量不小，但成熟度還臻於早期，至於公司當前的市值是否合理，還要考慮地緣政治與中國的經濟動能，不確定性仍高。海擇資本分享部分觀點如下：

1. 盈利能力：Q4滴滴中國事業的Adjusted EBITA為盈利13.6億人民幣(1.9億美元)，合併財報的Adjusted EBITA則為虧損12.7億人民幣(1.8億美元)，主要是國際事業與新創事業仍處於虧損；但2023全年虧損21.6億人民幣(3.0億美元)已較2022年大幅減少83%，與Uber全年EBITDA盈利40.5億美元相比，距離仍大。值得注意的是，滴滴在財務結算時所披露的淨利/淨損指標，選擇的是EBITA而非常用的EBITDA，相比來說，EBITA涵蓋折舊費用，但排除攤銷費用，這意味著，滴滴選擇的財務績效視角是在考慮有形資產折舊影響的同時，排除了無形資產攤銷影響。

2. 交易額規模：Q4滴滴中國事業的交易額為716.9億人民幣(99.1億美元)，國際事業的交易額則為214.8億人民幣(29.7億美元)，合併報表為931.7億人民幣(128.8億美元)。若與Uber同期交易額375.8億美元相比，約為其的34%。

2. 訂單規模：根據公告，Q4滴滴中國事業與國際事業的日均單量分別為3,190萬單與850萬單，推估全季分別為29.3億單與7.8億單，總訂單數為37.5億單；若與Uber的26.0億單相比，規模超過Uber達44%。

3. 國際事業潛力：目前滴滴國際事業的主要市場為拉丁美洲的巴西與墨西哥，從交易額與訂單數看，國際事業分別達到中國事業的30%與27%，不過收入22.2億人民幣僅為中國事業5%，目前看來仍處於早期，盈利的可能性與時間點尚難推估。

4. 市值差異：按2024年4月8日的美國各證交所收盤價，Uber的市值為1,562億美元，滴滴的市值為216億美元，約為Uber的14%，惟市值的合理性，還要考慮地緣政治與中國的經濟動能，特別現在滴滴於港交所IPO的時間仍未明朗，不確定性仍高。

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Today's Haize Viewpoint

https://haizecapital.com/index.php?id=1071

Didi: Not fully profitable yet, but its scale is now comparable to Uber's.

Didi (OTC: DIDIY) recently released its financial results for Q4 2023 and the full year 2023. Although the company is not yet fully profitable, its scale is now comparable to Uber's, prompting Haize Capital to compare Didi's operational data with Uber (NYSE: UBER). Notably, Didi's international business is substantial, but still in its early stages. The current market value of the company must also consider geopolitical factors and the economic momentum of China, as uncertainties remain high. Haize Capital shares the following insights:

1. Profitability: In Q4, Didi's China business posted an Adjusted EBITA profit of 1.36 billion RMB ($190 million), while the consolidated Adjusted EBITA was a loss of 1.27 billion RMB ($180 million), mainly due to losses in international and new ventures. However, the annual loss of 2.16 billion RMB ($300 million) represents a significant 83% reduction from 2022. Compared to Uber's annual EBITDA profit of $4.05 billion, there is still a considerable gap. It is important to note that Didi's financial statements use EBITA instead of the more common EBITDA. EBITA includes depreciation but excludes amortization, indicating that Didi focuses on the impact of tangible asset depreciation while excluding the amortization of intangible assets.

2. Transaction Volume: In Q4, Didi's China business recorded a transaction volume of 71.69 billion RMB ($9.91 billion), with the international business at 21.48 billion RMB ($2.97 billion), totaling 93.17 billion RMB ($12.88 billion). Compared to Uber's same period transaction volume of $37.58 billion, Didi's volume is about 34%.

3. Order Volume: According to the announcement, Didi's China and international business handled an average daily order volume of 31.9 million and 8.5 million, respectively, estimating 2.93 billion and 0.78 billion orders for the quarter, totaling 3.75 billion orders. This surpasses Uber's 2.6 billion orders by 44%.

4. Potential of International Business: Currently, Didi's main international markets are Brazil and Mexico in Latin America. The international business accounts for 30% and 27% of China's transaction volume and order numbers, respectively, but only 5% of revenue, indicating it is still in the early stages with uncertain profitability timelines.

5. Market Value Differences: As of April 8, 2024, Uber's market capitalization stands at $156.2 billion, while Didi's is $21.6 billion, approximately 14% of Uber's. However, the reasonableness of these valuations must consider geopolitical and economic factors in China, especially since the timing of Didi's IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange remains unclear, maintaining a high level of uncertainty.

標籤 Label： DIDIY  DiDi  Uber  Grab