美國3月就業率: 外國移民為就業增長主力
U.S. Employment Rate for March: Immigrants Dominate Job Growth

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

近期美國勞工部公告了3月就業率數據，將該數據結合JPMorgan對移民勞動力的調查，剛好可以做為東亞少子化議題的解方借鑑。

美國勞工部近期公告的3月的美國就業率數據，非農就業人數激增30.3萬人，除了遠超原本預期的21.4萬人，也高於2月的27.5萬人增量，除了增量是2023年5月以來新高，就業人數總量也創下歷史新高。

我們推斷3月創新高的就業人群與工作型態與海擇觀點之前披露的資訊相同，人群上有不少是外國移民(包括非法移民)，崗位型態也以兼職工作為主；因為勞工部按崗位計算的企業調查數據(Establishment)雖然屢創新高；而按人頭計算的家庭調查(Household)數據，由於只統計合法居民的家庭，就業人口總量與此前就只在持穩狀態。第三方數據也可以證明新增崗位以兼職工作為主，該數據顯示，3月份美國全職工作減少6,000個，但兼職工作則增加了69.1萬個。

再輔以JPMorgan的數據來看更有意思，從後疫情(2021年)以來，美國新增的勞動力超過50%都是來自外國移民者，這裡定義的外國移民僅限於移民第一代(Foreign Born)，隨著這個趨勢演變，這些外國移民勞動力，已成為帶動美國就業增長的主力。而按照美國人口調查與統計局(U.S. Census Bureau)的統計，美國3.3億總人口中，外國移民佔比約15%。因此也可以理解為，這些佔比不到兩成的外國移民，撐起了美國的就業率數據，未來甚至可能影響GDP結構。從這個角度看，或許移民勞動力可以成為東亞少子化議題的解決方案之一。

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The U.S. Department of Labor recently announced the employment data for March, which, combined with JPMorgan's survey on immigrant labor, provides valuable reference for addressing the issue of declining birthrates in East Asia.

The Department of Labor's latest announcement revealed that U.S. non-farm employment surged by 303,000 in March, significantly exceeding the expected 214,000 and surpassing February's increase of 275,000. This marks the highest monthly increase since May 2023 and sets a new record for total employment.

We infer that the record-high employment in March involves the same demographics and job types previously disclosed by Haize Capital. A significant portion of this group consists of foreign immigrants, including undocumented ones, predominantly in part-time positions. While the establishment survey data from the Department of Labor, which calculates employment by position, continues to reach new highs, the household survey data, which counts only legal residents, shows employment levels merely stabilizing. Third-party data corroborate that the new jobs are mainly part-time, showing a decrease of 6,000 full-time jobs but an increase of 691,000 part-time jobs in March.

Further supplemented by JPMorgan's data, it becomes even more interesting. Since the post-pandemic period (2021), over 50% of the new labor force in the U.S. has been from foreign immigrants, defined here as first-generation immigrants. As this trend evolves, these foreign-born labor forces have become the main drivers of employment growth in the U.S. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, foreign immigrants constitute about 15% of the total U.S. population of 330 million. Thus, it can be understood that these immigrants, making up less than 20% of the population, are supporting the U.S. employment rate and could even influence the GDP structure in the future. From this perspective, immigrant labor could potentially be one of the solutions to the issue of declining birthrates in East Asia. 

標籤 Label： U.S.  Employment  Immigrant  JPMorgan  East Asia