韓國赴中遊需求漸旺
Growing demand for Korean tourists travelling to China

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

此前海擇資本談過，韓國總人口數5,174萬雖僅為日本總人口數1.26億的四成，但2023年韓國的出境旅客的翻倍，可見其為東亞出境大國；我們也談了Q1韓國出境旅客的意向，說明赴日外，中國成為值得注意的新增長曲線。那麼，Q2的現況又是如何？

目前看來，Q2與Q3也不會太差。首先，赴中的需求促使航線運力快速恢復；根據韓國國土交通省(Ministry of Land,Infrastructure and Transport)數據，今年夏季中國航線的運力供應大幅增加，將在231條航線上，每週運營4,528次航班，與2019年相比恢復了98.7%，與去年夏季(2023年3月26日-10月28日)和冬季(2023年10月29日-2024年3月30日)相比，分別增加了86倍和73倍。

此外，目前企業的自結數據也還不錯。從HanaTour(KRX: 039130)的財務數據來看，按地區劃分，3月份以中國為出境目的地的佔比為10%，MoM上升3.9%；若以其銷售的赴中團隊遊客戶數量來看，1月約11,000人，2月為12,000人，3月則達到16,600人，呈穩步上升趨勢。赴中佔比10%從數字來看並不大，但考慮到2月韓國出境遊人次102.8萬中，有81.9萬人次赴日，達80%；從這個角度看，雖然韓國人赴中的佔比僅10%，但可以說已成為日本以外的重要目的地。

另一個值得注意的議題是，航線運力是雙向的，如果韓國人赴中的數據不錯，中國人赴韓的數據是不是也不會太差？目前來看，我們是認同這個觀點的。

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Haize Capital previously noted that while South Korea's population of 51.74 million is only 40% of Japan's 126 million, the doubling of South Korean outbound travelers in 2023 highlights its status as a major player in East Asia's outbound tourism. We also discussed the travel intentions of South Korean outbound travelers in Q1, indicating that, aside from Japan, China has become a significant growth area. So, what is the situation in Q2?

It appears that Q2 and Q3 are also promising. Firstly, the demand for travel to China has facilitated a rapid restoration of flight capacities. According to data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport of Korea, this summer's capacity on China routes has significantly increased, operating 4,528 flights weekly on 231 routes. This represents a 98.7% recovery compared to 2019. Compared to last summer (March 26, 2023 - October 28, 2023) and last winter (October 29, 2023 - March 30, 2024), the increase is 86-fold and 73-fold, respectively.

Additionally, the self-reported data from companies is also promising. According to the financial data from HanaTour (KRX: 039130), the proportion of trips to China in March accounted for 10% of their total outbound destinations, a MoM increase of 3.9%. Looking at the number of customers traveling to China on group tours sold by HanaTour, there were approximately 11,000 people in January, 12,000 in February, and 16,600 in March, showing a steady upward trend. While 10% may seem small, considering that in February, out of 1.028 million South Koreans traveling abroad, 819,000 went to Japan, accounting for 80%, the 10% figure to China signifies its importance as a destination beyond Japan.

Another noteworthy issue is that flight capacity is bilateral. If the data for South Koreans traveling to China is positive, wouldn't the data for Chinese traveling to South Korea likely be similar? Currently, we agree with this perspective.

                                                                        

標籤 Label： South Korea  China  Outbound  Tourism  Destination