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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
"旅遊"除了是消費行為，對世界還有什麼意義？
拿烏克蘭來說，它的旅遊行業GDP占比其實並不算高。根據第三方機構Statista的研究數據，2019年烏克蘭旅遊行業直接貢獻的GDP約35億美金，僅占整體GDP的7%。若與整個歐盟(European Union)相比，2019年歐盟旅遊行業直接貢獻的GDP約2.09兆美金，占整體歐盟GDP的13%。從上述數據可以換算，歐盟的旅遊行業GDP占比大概接近烏克蘭的2倍，而烏克蘭旅遊行業直接貢獻的GDP約為歐盟整體的1.6‰，這也與戰爭初期Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)在電話會議表示，烏克蘭戰爭對Booking在歐洲收入的直接影響基本可以忽略的意思相同。
雖然旅遊GDP對烏克蘭的影響不高，在區域上對歐盟的直接影響也不高，但即便只看旅遊業，其間接影響仍遠超過GDP與產值本身。根據"聯合國糧農組織(FAO, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)"統計，2021年俄羅斯加烏克蘭總計承擔了全球55％的葵花油、33％的小麥、27％的大麥、17％的玉米出口量；甚至在種植良時所必須的肥料上，俄羅斯也是肥料出口大國，同時是全球最大的氮肥出口國，第二大的鉀肥出口國，第三大的磷肥出口國。從能源看，按照"World Population Review"，2019年俄羅斯出口2,387億立方公尺的天然氣，是全球最大的出口國；同時按EIA(U.S. Energy Information Administration)數據，也是全球第3大石油出國口(每日1077萬桶, 2022年)。可想而知，在俄羅斯被金融制裁、烏克蘭地域步入戰爭後，全球會因為供應減少而產生龐大的通貨膨脹，雖然旅遊行業表面看起來更旺，但考慮到通貨膨脹，相同價格所能購買的機票航程，住宿間夜，大體也不如過往。
烏克蘭從2013年廣場事件(Євромайдан)、頓巴斯內戰到2014年北約成員國正式介入並簽署明斯克協議(The Minsk Agreement)以來，烏克蘭正式捲入了北約與俄羅斯間的紛歧。長久以來，兩次被美國拒絕加入北約的俄羅斯(其中一次在蘇聯時代)，也在北約將東擴至烏克蘭之際，於2022年爆發"特殊軍事行動"，並在2024年莫斯科音樂廳(Crocus City Hall)恐攻事件後，正式升格為"戰爭"。這場戰爭對烏克蘭產生了什麼影響？多方媒體有意無意甚至有預算的傾斜立場，讓我們對戰爭的真實現況宛如迷霧，但從一些被烏克蘭驗證與公開的報導，仍能一窺近期現況，比如：
1. 在4月初國際媒體更新烏克蘭徵兵動員年齡擴充至23-60歲後，4月16日烏克蘭頒布的法令更降低到18-60歲。(RFE/RL, 2024/4/23)。
2. 烏克蘭義務役役期由18個月增至36個月後，近期進一步刪除了兵役法規中"服役3年可退役"的規定，亦即可能戰死才能退出戰場。(TVBS, 2024/4/16)。
3. 烏克蘭暫停為居住(避難)於他國軍齡男子提供領事簽證服務，以推動遣返回國成為兵源。(Reuters, 2024/4/24)。
世界歷史上，曾有過百年戰爭、四十年戰爭、三十年戰爭、十年戰爭，相信在戰爭發生與持續的當下，沒人相信戰爭能持續那麼長的時間。海擇資本認為，旅遊行業對國家GDP的影響雖小，但旅遊帶來的交流，能化除各種文化與媒體濾鏡中，一方對另一方妖魔化與卡通化，為人們找來更多的一致點與同理心。
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Besides being a consumer activity, what else does tourism mean to the world?
Take Ukraine for example, its tourism sector's GDP contribution is not particularly high. According to research data from Statista, in 2019, the direct contribution of Ukraine's tourism industry to its GDP was about $3.5 billion, making up only 7% of the total GDP. In comparison, the European Union's tourism industry directly contributed approximately $2.09 trillion to the GDP in the same year, accounting for 13% of the total EU GDP. From this data, the EU's tourism GDP ratio is roughly double that of Ukraine, and the direct contribution of Ukraine’s tourism to the overall EU GDP is about 0.16%. This aligns with early statements from Booking (NASDAQ: BKNG) during a conference call, indicating that the Ukraine war had a negligible direct impact on Booking's revenues in Europe.
Although tourism's GDP impact on Ukraine is low, and its direct impact on the EU regionally is also minimal, the indirect effects of the tourism industry far exceed the GDP and output itself. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in 2021, Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 55% of the world’s sunflower oil exports, 33% of wheat, 27% of barley, and 17% of corn. Russia is also a major exporter of fertilizers, the largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, the second-largest for potash, and the third-largest for phosphate fertilizers. Regarding energy, according to the World Population Review, Russia exported 238.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2019, making it the largest exporter globally. Additionally, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Russia was the world's third-largest oil exporter in 2022, with daily exports of 10.77 million barrels. It is conceivable that following financial sanctions against Russia and Ukraine entering war, global inflation will spike due to reduced supplies. Although the tourism industry might seem more robust on the surface, considering inflation, the same price now buys less in terms of flights, accommodations than before.
Since the 2013 Euromaidan events, the internal conflict in Donbas, and the formal involvement of NATO member states with the signing of the Minsk Agreement in 2014, Ukraine has been officially drawn into the disputes between NATO and Russia. Russia, which was twice denied NATO membership (once during the Soviet era), launched a "special military operation" in 2022 as NATO appeared poised to expand further into Ukraine. This escalated into an official "war" following a terrorist attack at Moscow's Crocus City Hall in 2024. What impact has this war had on Ukraine? Despite the foggy portrayal by various media outlets, some with unintended or even biased perspectives, verified and public reports from Ukraine still offer a glimpse into the recent situation, such as:
1. After international media reported that Ukraine had expanded the draft age range to 23-60 years in early April, a decree issued on April 16 lowered it further to 18-60 years. (RFE/RL, 2024/4/23).
2. Following an increase in mandatory military service from 18 to 36 months, Ukraine recently removed the provision from military regulations that allowed retirement after three years of service, meaning soldiers may now leave the battlefield only if killed in action. (TVBS, 2024/4/16).
3. Ukraine has suspended consular visa services for draft-age men residing (as refugees) in other countries, to facilitate their return and bolster military resources. (Reuters, 2024/4/24).
Throughout world history, there have been the Hundred Years' War, the Forty Years' War, the Thirty Years' War, and the Ten Years' War. It's hard to believe during their onset and continuation that these wars could last so long. Haize Capital believes that although the tourism industry has a small impact on a country's GDP, the exchanges it fosters can dissolve the demonization and caricature of one side by another through various cultural and media filters, bringing more points of commonality and empathy to people.
標籤 Label： Tourism GDP Ukraine War Economy Exchange