登錄
選單
登錄
海擇短評 Haize Comment：
Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)在上季電話會議時，對Q1的間夜數給到4%-6%的低增速預期，而近期公告2024Q1財報的超出此前預期，結算出的間夜增速為9%，為低標的1.25倍；交易額為435億美元，再創歷史新高；淨利7.76億美元，再創歷史Q1新高。雖然我們對Booking的套路並不感到訝異，但屢屢出現"超預期"財報其實對公司治理來說不算好事，只是既然股價漲了，市場投資人也就不怎麼介意了。Booking是間歷經殺伐走到世界OTA頂峰的公司，即便有戰略層面的問題，短期也難撼動其地位，所以海擇資本會更關心的是全球行業枯榮與競爭格局變化，並依此精神解讀電話會議如下：
1. 旅遊行業美國減速、亞洲補漲：Booking在電話會議給到的Q2預期仍然不好，間夜增速在4%至6%之間，交易額增速在3%至5%之間。先不推估本季能否仍有超水準的表現，海擇資本認為，即便增速仍能比預期翻倍，9%的間夜增速對這個帝國來說不算令人驚嘆。將增長細化到各區域分解來看，亞洲區的間夜增速超過10%，其中中國、日本、韓國、印度和印尼表現最好；歐洲和世界其他地區則出現高個位數成長；而美國則是低個位數成長，這裡值得注意的是，美國的消費動能開始有了雜音，這也對應了以美國為核心市場的Expedia出現減速的現況。此外，Booking也提到了Q1的Adjuested EBITDA會是今年最低的季度，這點與Expedia的財測一致。
2. 非住宿產品交易額佔比約10%：本季Booking雖仍未披露住宿以外產品各自的交易額，但披露了住宿以外產品的交易額佔比與年增率。交易額佔比是高個位數，亦即約40億美金左右，換算用車/機票/活動體驗的平均(每日)客單價約120美金左右；而交易額的年增率約50%，考慮到機票航段的年增速33%、用車天數的年增速11%，海擇資本推估主要是因為機票的客單價較高，推動了交易額增長。這部分的數據也意味著，機票很可能在2-3年之內，超越租車成為Booking第二大的事業(從Volume看)，也就是說未來Booking會更向Trip.com(NASDAQ: TCOM)。
3. 在替代住宿領域影響力續增：本季Booking的替代住宿間夜量YoY增長13%，在總間夜量中佔比36%，亦即達1.07億間夜，是首次單季超過1億間夜，也意味著在全球範圍內更站穩腳跟。從間夜規模看，Booking大概是Airbnb的三分之二；但從房源數看，Q1季末總房源約740萬套，與Airbnb已分庭抗禮。從房源的組成來看，Booking以小型獨立房源為主，較欠缺類似Vrbo的高單價別墅與整棟式房源，如果說Booking有超車Airbnb的機會，海擇資本會認為是先從美國Vrbo的獨佔房源做突破的可能性較高。
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Booking (NASDAQ: BKNG) projected a modest 4%-6% growth in overnight stays for Q1 during their last earnings call. However, their recent Q1 2024 financial report exceeded these expectations with a 9% increase, 1.25 times the lower end of their forecast. Transaction volume reached $43.5 billion, setting a new historical record, with net earnings at $776 million, the highest Q1 in history. While we are not surprised by Booking's patterns, consistently exceeding forecasts may not be ideal for corporate governance. Nevertheless, since the stock price has risen, investors seem less concerned. As a company that has reached the summit of the global OTA market through significant challenges, short-term strategic issues are unlikely to affect its standing. Hence, Haize Capital is more focused on global industry trends and changes in the competitive landscape, which we will address in our analysis of the earnings call.
1. Travel industry slowdown in the U.S. and catch-up growth in Asia: Booking's Q2 forecast during the earnings call remains weak, with expected room nights growth between 4% to 6% and transaction volume growth between 3% to 5%. Haize Capital notes that even if growth doubles expectations to 9%, it is not particularly impressive for this empire. Breaking down growth by region, Asia outperforms with room nights growth exceeding 10%, particularly in China, Japan, South Korea, India, and Indonesia. Europe and other parts of the world see high single-digit growth, whereas the U.S. market experiences low single-digit growth. Notably, there are signs of weakening consumer momentum in the U.S., correlating with a slowdown for Expedia, which focuses on the American market. Additionally, Booking mentioned that Q1's adjusted EBITDA would be the lowest of the year, aligning with Expedia's financial forecast.
2. Non-accommodation products account for about 10% of transaction volume: This quarter, Booking has not disclosed the transaction volumes for non-accommodation products individually, but it did share their share of total transactions and the annual growth rate. The transaction share for these products is in the high single digits, approximately $4 billion, with an average daily revenue per user (ARPU) of around $120 for car rentals, flights, and experiences. The annual growth rate of transaction volume is about 50%, with flight segments growing at 33% annually and car rental days at 11%. Haize Capital attributes this growth primarily to higher ticket prices for flights. This data suggests that within two to three years, flights could surpass car rentals as Booking's second-largest segment by volume, positioning Booking more similarly to Trip.com (NASDAQ: TCOM).
3. Increased influence in alternative accommodations: This quarter, Booking's alternative accommodation nights increased by 13% year-over-year, accounting for 36% of total alternative nights, or 107 million nights, marking the first time it exceeded 100 million in a single quarter, solidifying its global standing. In terms of alternative room nights, Booking is approximately two-thirds the size of Airbnb. At the end of Q1, Booking had about 7.4 million listings, comparable to Airbnb. Booking primarily offers smaller, independent properties and lacks high-priced villas and whole properties like those offered by Vrbo. If Booking were to surpass Airbnb, Haize Capital sees potential in breaking through by targeting exclusive properties similar to those offered by Vrbo in the U.S.
標籤 Label： BKNG ABNB EXPE Hotel Flight TCOM Airbnb Expedia