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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
如果說股票融斷(circuit breaker)是投機公司的專利，Tripadvisor(NASDAQ: TRIP)在本季財報公告日融斷，到底是意味著Tripadvisor終也成為投機公司，還是正派公司也有融斷的可能？這個答案也許對每個投資人都不同。無論答案如何，單日最高達37.7%的跌幅，相信總會讓Tripadvisor的投資人震驚不已。而當Tripadvisor宣告收購破局之際，海擇資本除了關注收購是否還有轉圜空間，另外就是回歸基本面，探究這家公司當下真正的價值。基於上述觀點，海擇資本簡析本季財報如下：
1. 收購窗口仍未徹底關閉：本次收購事項神秘而令人不解的原因在於，收購事件是由Tripadvisor自己公告，又似由自己中止。此前Tripadvisor的控股股東Liberty TripAdvisor(OTCMKTS: LTRPA)自稱收到收購要約，而由於它持有Tripadvisor約56%的股份，收購Liberty TripAdvisor的交易將同時導致收購Tripadvisor，開啟了事件序幕，而收購的可能性又因為Tripadvisor市值飛漲顯得更為繪聲繪影。而最神奇的地方在於，Liberty集團兼Tripadvisor的董事長Gregory Maffei在財報日提出收購中止，而Liberty TripAdvisor同步披露自己"一年內持續經營的能力存在重大疑問(there is substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year)”。一般拒絕收購是覺得收購價太便宜，但Maffei的說法又好像是公司怕收購方買得太貴，舉措十足精神分裂，一看就讓人覺得水深不見底。從結論來看，海擇資本認為官方並沒有把話完全說死，因為特別委員會的結論是"將繼續酌情評估擬議的替代方案(continue to evaluate proposed alternatives as appropriate)"。
2. 未來將以活動體驗平台為核心：本季公司財報有件更重要的事實因為關注都集中在收購案而未被重視，那就是Brand Tripadvisor(基於Tripadvisor官網平台產生的收入)在後疫情時期首次出現收入年減，Q1收入2.40億美元既低於去年同期(2.44億美元)，也低於2019年同期(2.54美元)。這意味著Tripadvisor必須快速發展第二收入曲線，甚至轉型成立另一種型態的公司，否則將無路可走。其原因有三，首先，在Brand Tripadvisor出現年減的同業，整個住宿行業並沒有出現衰退，本季全球住宿行業的現況是美國減速、亞洲補漲，OTA仍有增速；因此，只能說Tripadvisor做為通路更不受重視了。其次，此前Brand Tripadvisor上販售的住宿產品早已不如2019年同期，但加上平台販售的餐飲與活動體驗產品與廣告投放，還能維持年增；因此本次出現年減是里程碑式的挑戰。再次，按照目前的收入增長趨勢，兩年內Tripadvisor所屬的體驗(Viator)與餐飲(The Fork)自營平台收入將能超過Brand Tripadvisor；屆時，公司的未來就是以活動體驗為核心的旅遊OTA，平台只是行銷輔助。
3. Tripadvisor對潛在收購方的性價比仍高：這次收購破局，最難受的會是Gregory Maffei嗎？其實也未必，很多玩樂體驗商(如Klook, GetYourGuide, KKday)都期待看著Viator得到高估值，以利自己IPO上岸。本次收購破局後，Tripadvisor一天之內跌了30%，估值一次回到疫情初期低點，只有25億美元。如果將Tripadvisor、Viator、The Fork以Q1收入比例切分來看，Brand Tripadvisor與Viator的估值分別只有14.2億美元與8.4億美元，從海擇資本的角度來看，其實還是滿適合許多企業CVC的戰略投資(當然，這樣粗暴估值合不合理是另一回事)。
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If we consider circuit breakers as a feature of speculative companies, what does it imply when TripAdvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP) triggered a circuit breaker on its earnings report day? Does it mean TripAdvisor has become speculative, or can even reputable companies experience this? The answer might vary for each investor. Regardless, the single-day drop of up to 37.7% would surely have shocked TripAdvisor investors. Amid acquisition fallout, Haize Capital is not only assessing if there’s room to salvage the deal but is also revisiting the fundamentals to determine the company’s true value. Based on these insights, Haize Capital briefly analyzes this quarter’s financial report as follows:
1. Acquisition window remains open: The mysterious aspect of this acquisition involves TripAdvisor itself announcing the deal and then seemingly halting it. Previously, TripAdvisor’s majority shareholder, Liberty TripAdvisor (OTCMKTS: LTRPA), claimed it had received an acquisition offer. Since Liberty holds about 56% of TripAdvisor’s shares, acquiring Liberty would effectively mean acquiring TripAdvisor. This initiated the sequence of events, and the possibility of acquisition seemed even more plausible as TripAdvisor’s market value surged. Intriguingly, on the day of the earnings report, Liberty’s chairman and also TripAdvisor's chairman, Gregory Maffei, called off the acquisition. Concurrently, Liberty TripAdvisor expressed "substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year." Typically, acquisition refusals suggest the offer price is too low, but Maffei’s statement seemed to suggest a concern about the acquirer paying too much, creating a paradox. Haize Capital believes the door is not completely closed as the special committee concluded it would "continue to evaluate proposed alternatives as appropriate."
2. Future focus on experience-based platform: This quarter's financial report reveals an overlooked fact due to the focus on the acquisition: Brand TripAdvisor (revenue generated from the TripAdvisor official website platform) saw a year-on-year revenue decline for the first time post-pandemic, with Q1 earnings of $240 million, below last year's $244 million and $254 million in 2019. This indicates TripAdvisor needs to quickly develop a second revenue stream or transform into a different type of company to survive. There are three reasons for this. First, while Brand TripAdvisor experienced a decline, the global lodging industry did not, with the U.S. slowing down and Asia catching up, and online travel agencies (OTAs) still growing. Thus, TripAdvisor's channel is losing relevance. Secondly, the accommodation products previously sold on Brand TripAdvisor were already less competitive than in 2019, but the inclusion of dining and activity experience products and advertising maintained growth until now; thus, this decline marks a milestone challenge. Lastly, based on current trends, revenue from TripAdvisor’s experiences (Viator) and dining (The Fork) platforms is expected to surpass Brand TripAdvisor within two years, positioning the company as a travel OTA centered on activity experiences, with the platform serving merely as a marketing tool.
3. TripAdvisor still offers good value for potential acquirers: The fallout of this acquisition deal might not be most disappointing for Gregory Maffei. In fact, many activity providers like Klook, GetYourGuide, and KKday were hopeful to see Viator valued highly, which could aid their own IPOs. After the deal fell through, TripAdvisor’s stock plunged 30% in a day, bringing its valuation back down to the early pandemic low of $2.5 billion. Breaking down TripAdvisor, Viator, and The Fork by Q1 revenue proportions, the valuations of Brand TripAdvisor and Viator are only $1.42 billion and $0.84 billion respectively. From Haize Capital's perspective, this still makes it a viable strategic investment for many corporate venture capitals (CVCs), although such a crude valuation might be debatable.
標籤 Label： TRIP BKNG Booking TCOM Acquisition Viator The Fork Activity Experience