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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
Airbnb(NASDQ: ABNB)近期公告2024Q1財報。Chesky一直以對市場獨特的嗅覺，在設計產品與研判需求時能取得先機；用他自己的說法，就是專精於產品的可靠性(reliability)、可負擔性(affordability)與可用性(usability)。但Airbnb近期的發展也證明了，一家公司在創新、獨占、盈利的路上越登越高的同時，也可能同時距離市場第一OTA的霸者地位越來越遠，不過目前投資市場也已反映了這部分的差距。海擇資本披露部分季報解讀如下：
1. 高利潤率與高市場份額的選擇：Airbnb本季的交易額、自由現金流、ADR、間夜量紛紛創下歷史新高，收入與Adjusted EBITDA則創下Q1歷史新高。我們認為這得利於Chesky幾乎整整比對手(特別是Vrbo)早一年就進入低客單價市場，增加單間房(一戶房中的一間)及降低清潔費/服務費，衝高了間夜量，而快速上升的通膨反而更堆高ADR(Average Daily Rate)。從公司的Q2預期來看，由於收入的YoY增速還有8%至10%，估計交易額與間夜量仍能再創歷史新高。值得注意的是，公司在保證EBITDA利潤率下限為35%的同時，其實也意味著放棄以較低的行銷ROI追求間夜數的機會，這也揭露了在市場份額上，Airbnb難以在整體住宿領域追近與Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)的距離，甚至可能被逐步微幅拉開的原因。
2. 新體驗產品仍難量化複製：本季公司以"Icons(中文版翻譯成"傳奇")"為名，推出了涵蓋音樂、電影、體育(music, film, sports)等領域的非凡體驗(extraordinary experiences)產品。Chesky認為"傳奇"產品有三大效益：品牌宣傳、獲取特定領域客源、拓展產品線。不過，從目前已確認的產品來看，如奧賽美術館(Musée d'Orsay, 位於法國)過夜、在私人酒吧欣賞Kevin Hart的脫口秀(美國)、在X戰警的住所過夜(美國)、寶來塢明星Janhvi Kapoor私宅過夜(印度)，大體都以住宿類體驗為主，活動體驗較少，即便住宿體驗也很難快速複製推廣。海擇資本認為，Chesky也清楚這類體驗產品精神上比過去Airbnb的體驗產品更難開發、更獨占、更難被競爭對手複製，但同時也很難被自己大量複製。它能做到很好的品牌宣傳，但難以創下大產量追上Booking。
3. AI使用場景迥異於其他OTA：本季Chesky也正式披露了其生成式AI產品的樣貌，值得注意的是，其訴求的使用對象(優先級)是房東而非客人。其用途有兩種，首先，AI能讓房東(供應商)用人工智慧更簡單的組織適合客人下單的照片，目的是讓客人能更直觀的經由視覺購買產品，提高轉換率。其次，與OTA不同的是，OTA是推送給客人適合的SKU；在Airbnb，AI是專屬於房東的"人工智慧快速回應(AI-powered quick replies)"，它的存在價值是協助房東預測客人會問的問題，並提供解答思路。海擇資本認為，其AI避免了OTA傾斜於推薦高佣金產品的風險，理論上對客人的體驗會更好，對整體房東也更公正，但對於產量的提升，較不立竿見影。
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Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) recently released its Q1 2024 financial report. Chesky has always had a unique market sense, allowing him to be ahead in product design and demand prediction. In his own words, he focuses on product reliability, affordability, and usability. However, Airbnb's recent developments also show that as a company climbs higher in innovation, exclusivity, and profitability, it may also move further away from the leading position of the top Online Travel Agency (OTA). The investment market has already reflected this gap. Haize Capital has provided an interpretation of the quarterly report as follows:
1. High profit margins and market share choice: This quarter, Airbnb's transaction volume, free cash flow, ADR (Average Daily Rate), and room nights all reached historic highs, with revenue and Adjusted EBITDA hitting record highs for Q1. This success can be attributed to Chesky entering the lower-priced market almost a year ahead of competitors, particularly Vrbo, by increasing single-room offerings and reducing cleaning and service fees, thereby boosting room nights. Rising inflation further elevated the ADR. Looking ahead to Q2, with an anticipated 8% to 10% year-over-year revenue growth, transaction volumes and nights booked are expected to reach new records. It’s important to note that while maintaining a minimum EBITDA margin of 35%, Airbnb has effectively chosen not to pursue more room nights at lower marketing ROI, revealing challenges in catching up to Booking (NASDAQ: BKNG) in overall market share, and possibly even seeing the gap widen slightly.
2. New experience products are hard to quantify and replicate: This quarter, the company launched a product line named "Icons" offering extraordinary experiences in music, film, and sports. Chesky sees three benefits to the "Icons" products: brand promotion, attracting specific customer segments, and expanding the product line. However, current offerings such as overnight stays at the Musée d'Orsay in France, enjoying Kevin Hart's stand-up in a private bar in the US, overnight stays at the X-Men residence in the US, and stays at Bollywood star Janhvi Kapoor's private home in India, are primarily accommodation-based with fewer activity experiences, and are challenging to replicate and scale quickly. Haize Capital believes that while these experiences are more difficult to develop, more exclusive, and harder for competitors to replicate compared to past Airbnb experiences, they are also difficult for Airbnb itself to replicate in large quantities. They serve as excellent brand promotion but struggle to achieve the mass production needed to catch up with Booking.
3. AI use differs from other OTAs: This quarter, Chesky officially unveiled Airbnb's generative AI product, notably designed primarily for hosts rather than guests. The AI serves two purposes: firstly, it helps hosts organize photos in a way that simplifies the booking process for guests, aiming to enhance visual appeal and increase conversion rates. Secondly, unlike OTAs that push suitable SKUs to guests, Airbnb's AI provides "AI-powered quick replies" specifically for hosts, helping them predict and respond to potential guest inquiries. Haize Capital notes that Airbnb's AI approach avoids the risk of OTAs promoting high-commission products, potentially enhancing guest experience and offering fairer treatment to hosts, though it may not immediately boost production significantly.
標籤 Label： ABNB BKNG Vrbo EXPE Accommodation Experiences AI