登錄
選單
登錄
海擇短評 Haize Comment：
美國證交所的租車類上市公司這幾年真可用"浮生若夢"形容－疫情發生後，Hertz(NASDAQ: HTZ)申請破產，不久後Avis(NASDAQ: CAR)就拜社交距離政策之賜，市值最高達到疫情低點期的85倍，超過200億美元，近期重生後的Hertz發生重大戰略失誤，Avis的盈利能力也回歸到疫情前的量級。隨著Hertz與Avis發布2024Q1財報，值得投資人關注的是，國際的租車市場是否再次崩解？Hertz的重生是否將以破局告終？Avis能再踏著Hertz的失誤走上巔峰嗎？海擇資本嘗試藉由相關公司的Q1財報，提供一些思考上的試金石：
1. 電動車不是Hertz挫敗主因：Hertz於2021年11月破產後得到重整機會，取得第一留置權循環信貸(First Lien Revolving Credit)重返沙場，Stephen Scherr也於2022年2月以CEO的身分加入Hertz，並以提供電動車(特斯拉為主)租賃作為主要戰略。由於租車公司的商業模式在於，在買入新車與賣出二手車的時間差，賺取儘可能多的租金收益，特斯拉的跌價確實為Hertz帶來不少遠期殘值下降的影響。但海擇資本認為，購買電動車的影響沒到公司覆滅的程度，Scherr確實在2021年宣布要購買10萬輛特斯拉，甚至還說要購買17.5萬輛通用的電動車，但我們認為實際上大量購買的只有特斯拉，總量也不超過5萬輛，在公司總車隊約53萬輛中，佔比不到10%。Scherr的真正問題在於，任內2年，Hertz的運營並沒有明確改善，舉例來說，從2024Q1每日租金來看，相對於2019年同期，Hertz的漲價幅度遠高於Avis，但運營成果卻遠不如Avis。簡單來說，海擇資本認為Scherr引咎辭職的真正原因不在於買太多電動車，而是在於除了購買電動車，他幾乎沒有其他的重大戰略。
2. 經理人制度加深虧損：Hertz本季稅前虧損5.8億美元，相對於可用的流動資金13億美元(包括4.7億美元不受限制的現金及第一留置權循環信貸的可用餘額)是筆鉅款。不過我們認為這不是將發生的常態，而是Gil West在接任CEO之際，先行清除可能的風險，比如原規劃全年處置2萬輛電動車，在Q1就已處置了1萬輛；並將里程數較高的車輛提前減少75%；同時進行債權融資，使本季利息增加1.06億美元。如West在電話會議說明他能為公司帶來的EBITDA改善，三分之二來自成本驅動，三分之一來自收入驅動，我們認為成本驅動的要素就是就是提前認列損失，West接下來還可能大幅關店，事實上，Q1已關閉125家門市，而Hertz全球營運的11,000多個地點中，效率不彰的還很多。
3. 租車市場未崩盤，只是回到買方市場：從Avis在Q1的Adjusted EBITDA來看，總額1,200萬美元，與2023Q1的5.35億美元相比大幅下降。海擇資本這存在兩部分的影響，一是定價與2023年同期相比下降6%，但3月跌幅已和緩(4%)，Q2也有持續改善；從交易天數來看，美洲需求仍創歷史新高。其二，Avis不清楚Hertz會把二手車清理到什麼程度，為了抗風險，Q1就已處置掉預期年銷量的50%以上，這導致了Q1整個租車市場(特別是美國)充斥二手車，大量的供給帶低了價格，也使Avis本季在賣車部份產生約4,000萬美元的虧損(去年盈利2.5億美元)。整體來說，我們認為市場並非崩盤，只是從賣方市場回到買方市場。
4. Avis未來增量得靠自己：那麼，對Avis來說，這次還能再踏著Hertz更上一層樓嗎？我們認為機率很低，Hertz在Q1的大虧來自於基於經理人交迭的責任區分，所以大筆認列了一次性費用，但Hertz所需的資金還能在破產後談的循環信貸中得到滿足，重振旗鼓的時間會比預期短。海擇資本認為，未來Avis的增長只能靠自己踏踏實實做好國際化，爭取亞洲旅遊捕漲的機會，Q1 Avis的國際租賃天數雖較2023年同期成長4%，但仍比2019年同期下降17%，增長空間仍大。
-------
The recent years for U.S. stock exchange-listed car rental companies like Hertz (NASDAQ: HTZ) and Avis (NASDAQ: CAR) could be described as "life is but a dream." After the pandemic struck, Hertz filed for bankruptcy, while Avis, benefiting from social distancing policies, saw its market value peak at 85 times its low during the pandemic, exceeding $20 billion. Recently, as Hertz made strategic errors post-recovery and Avis returned to pre-pandemic profit levels, investors are watching their Q1 2024 financial reports closely. Will the international car rental market collapse again? Will Hertz's revival end in failure? Can Avis reach new heights by capitalizing on Hertz's mistakes? Haize Capital aims to provide insights through the analysis of these companies' Q1 financial reports.
1. Electric vehicles were not the main reason for Hertz's failure: After emerging from bankruptcy in November 2021 with a First Lien Revolving Credit, Hertz, under the leadership of CEO Stephen Scherr from February 2022, focused on renting electric vehicles, primarily Teslas. The business model of car rental companies relies on maximizing rental income during the lifespan of a vehicle before resale. While Tesla's depreciation did impact Hertz's future residual values, Haize Capital believes it was not devastating. Scherr announced plans to buy 100,000 Teslas and even 175,000 GM electric vehicles, but in reality, purchases were predominantly Teslas and did not exceed 50,000 units, less than 10% of the total fleet of 530,000 vehicles. The real issue during Scherr's two-year tenure was the lack of operational improvement. For example, Hertz's rental price increases since Q1 2024 compared to the same period in 2019 were significantly higher than Avis's, yet its operational results were inferior. Haize Capital suggests that Scherr's resignation was not primarily due to the electric vehicle purchases but rather the lack of other significant strategies beyond this initiative.
2. Management system exacerbates losses: This quarter, Hertz reported a pre-tax loss of $580 million against available liquid assets of $1.3 billion, including $470 million in unrestricted cash and available credit from a First Lien Revolving Credit. However, this is not seen as the norm but rather a strategic move by CEO Gil West to mitigate potential risks at the outset of his tenure. For instance, while initially planning to dispose of 20,000 electric vehicles throughout the year, 10,000 were sold off in Q1 alone. Additionally, vehicles with higher mileage were reduced by 75% prematurely, and debt financing actions increased the interest expenses by $106 million this quarter. As West explained during the earnings call, two-thirds of the EBITDA improvement he expects to bring will be from cost-driven factors and one-third from revenue-driven initiatives, implying that these cost measures include early recognition of losses. Furthermore, significant store closures are anticipated, with 125 locations already shut down in Q1 among Hertz’s over 11,000 global operations, many of which are underperforming.
3. Car rental market hasn't collapsed, merely shifted to a buyer's market: Avis's adjusted EBITDA in Q1 was $12 million, a sharp decline from $535 million in Q1 2023. Haize Capital identifies two main factors: First, pricing decreased by 6% compared to the same period last year, with the decline easing to 4% by March and showing signs of improvement in Q2. Transaction days in the Americas reached a historical high. Second, uncertain of the extent to which Hertz would offload used vehicles, Avis preemptively sold over 50% of its anticipated annual sales volume in Q1. This led to an influx of used cars in the market, especially in the U.S., driving down prices and resulting in a $40 million loss for Avis this quarter from vehicle sales, compared to a $250 million profit last year. Overall, the market has not collapsed but has shifted from a seller's to a buyer's market.
4. Avis must rely on itself for future growth: Can Avis once again climb higher on the back of Hertz's challenges? The likelihood seems low. Hertz's substantial Q1 losses stemmed from managerial transitions, leading to significant one-time expenses. However, Hertz can still meet its financial needs through post-bankruptcy revolving credit, potentially speeding up its recovery. Haize Capital believes that Avis must focus on solidifying its international presence and capitalize on growing tourism in Asia. Although Avis's international rental days in Q1 grew by 4% compared to the same period in 2023, they are still 17% lower than in 2019, indicating significant room for growth.
標籤 Label： Hertz HTZ Avis CAR Car Rental