MakeMyTrip 2024Q1財報：運營數據遠超疫前；早早布局流量入口
MakeMyTrip 2024Q1 Earnings: Operating Data Far Exceeds Pre-Pandemic; Early Layout of Traffic Portals

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

MakeMyTrip(NASDAQ: MMYT)近期公告2024Q1財報。考慮到公司市值的本益比已經到風口上豬飛的程度，我們認為更值得關心的是，整體印度旅遊行業的現況與MakeMyTrip作為印度霸主，是否有弱點能成為新創公司的突破口。基於上述考慮，海擇資本披露部分思考如下：

1. 運營數據大幅突破疫前：根據WTTC數據，2033年印度整體旅遊行業對GDP的貢獻將增至36.8 兆盧比(4,418億美金)，約佔印度GDP的7%，並將在全國僱用超過5,820萬人，其中十分之一的人在該行業工作；而從現況來看，印度是全球成長最快的三大出境旅遊市場之一，預計到2030年將成為第四大旅遊消費國。雖然從盈利增長的角度看，MakeMyTrip本季的財報仍有季節性因素，Adjusted Operating Profit為3,243萬美元，QoQ略減3%。不過，本季各產品線的產量，已遠遠超過2019年同期：機票航段數1,282萬、住宿間夜量1,529萬、巴士票數2,272萬，分別較2019年增長26%、26%、33%；佣金收入則分別增長29%、16%、68%，已大幅超越疫前。

2. 聚合流量入口：除了可支配收入成長、交通基礎設施的持續投資等宏觀因素促進了印度旅遊業的成長。海擇資本認為，若從微觀看，相對於歐洲興起的Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)，MakeMyTrip更像是在中國興起的攜程(NASDAQ: TCOM，但MakeMyTrip又比攜程更早的認識到流量入口的重要性。除了佣金率高的酒店事業(18%)與機票事業(7%)外，MakeMyTrip極早就已控制頻次與流量都大的火車票、汽車票握在手中；對於一些符合當地特色的當地玩樂相關產品，也比如印度人國內的"心靈旅遊目的地(spiritual destinations)"，也布局較早。整體來說，提早控制流量入口能相對壓抑新創公司以流量崛起的風險。

3. 維持疫情間彈性服務：疫情間各國旅遊產品都提供免費退改的彈性服務，但大體在疫情後都已取消，目前僅在中國，有部分產品品類維持著這類生態。海擇資本認為，MakeMyTrip所推出的彈性服務也有鞏固需求、並讓新創公司不易進入市場的特點。除了此前談過在住宿產品推出的"零預訂(Book at Zero)"，在機票產品推出的"Flexifly"，使客戶能夠選擇行使零取消費或免費改期，擴大了國內航班的靈活性；而"簽證擔保(Visa Guarantee)"服務，則能確保在簽證被大使館拒絕的情況下，退回全額機票費。大體來說，這些重服務的舉措都會增加管銷成本，比如Q1的行銷費用達3160萬美元，YoY增加36%，公司得自行衡量ROI。

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MakeMyTrip (NASDAQ: MMYT) recently announced its Q1 2024 financial report. Given the company's elevated P/E ratio, we believe it's more important to focus on the overall status of India's travel industry and whether MakeMyTrip, as the dominant player in India, has vulnerabilities that new startups could exploit. Haize Capital reveals its thoughts based on these considerations.

1. Operational data significantly exceed pre-pandemic levels: According to WTTC data, by 2033, India's travel industry is expected to contribute 36.8 trillion rupees ($441.8 billion) to GDP, approximately 7% of India's total GDP, and employ over 58.2 million people, with one-tenth working in this sector. India is one of the top three fastest-growing outbound travel markets globally, projected to become the fourth-largest travel consumer by 2030. While MakeMyTrip's Q1 earnings show a seasonal dip with a 3% QoQ decrease in Adjusted Operating Profit at $32.43 million, its product lines have vastly outperformed those of Q1 2019: air ticket segments at 12.82 million, accommodation nights at 15.29 million, and bus ticket numbers at 22.72 million, representing increases of 26%, 26%, and 33%, respectively; commission income has surged by 29%, 16%, and 68% compared to 2019.

2. Traffic Aggregation Gateway: In addition to macro factors like rising disposable income and continuous investment in transportation infrastructure fueling India's travel industry growth, the company noted the importance of traffic gateways. Compared to Booking (NASDAQ: BKNG) in Europe, MakeMyTrip more closely resembles Ctrip (NASDAQ: TCOM) in China but recognized the significance of traffic gateways earlier. Beyond high-commission sectors like hotels (18%) and air tickets (7%), MakeMyTrip quickly took control of high-frequency and high-traffic products like train and bus tickets. It also strategically entered markets for local experiences tailored to Indian preferences, such as spiritual destinations, ahead of others. Early control of these traffic gateways has effectively mitigated the risk of new startups rising through traffic acquisition.

3. Maintaining Flexible Services Post-Pandemic: During the pandemic, travel products worldwide offered flexible cancellation and changes without fees, but most have discontinued these post-pandemic, except in China, where some product categories retain this approach. Haize Capital believes MakeMyTrip's flexible services have helped solidify demand and create barriers for new entrants. Services such as "Book at Zero" for accommodations and "Flexifly" for air tickets, which allow customers to choose zero cancellation fees or free rescheduling, have increased flexibility for domestic flights. The "Visa Guarantee" service ensures a full ticket refund if a visa application is denied. These service-focused measures increase operational costs; for example, Q1 marketing expenses were $31.6 million, a 36% YoY increase, necessitating a careful ROI assessment by the company.

標籤 Label： MMYT  India  Tourism  BKNG  TCOM