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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
近期冬海集團(Sea, NYSE: SE)公告2024Q1財報。雖然TikTok與Sea旗下的Shopee僅僅是在東南亞的一隅(印尼)激烈交戰，不過由於這是直播電商與傳統電商在東南亞人口大國的首次攻防，廣獲全球關注。Q1結束，Sea的電商事業收入YoY大漲30%、QoQ增長6%，帶動集團收入YoY增長23%、QoQ增長3%，事業體的Adjusted EBITDA虧損甚至降到2,170萬美元，相較Q3(虧損3.5億美元)、Q4(虧損2.3億美元)大幅減少。究竟是TikTok沒那麼強，還是Shopee真的有護城河，而Sea的金融事業超越嘴砲圈了嗎？這是我們認為投資人會有的好奇，海擇資本也嘗試解答如下：
1. TikTok未臻完全體：直觀的看，Shopee在Q1直播訂單的比例與Q4接近，僅約15%；這意味著Shopee的增長不算侵蝕TikTok直播電商的市場佔有率，看起來更像是TikTok在印尼推動合規化的進程不夠快。根據GoTo(IDX: GOTO)的公告，TikTok為了應對印尼政府的直播帶貨禁令，TikTok的電商交易必須與(從GoTo剝離出的)Tokopedia合作，在Tokopedia所建置的系統(Shop Tokopedia)進行，未來推廣到東南亞其他國家，仍然會與Tokopedia技術合作；此外，TikTok的物流也必須收購GoTo剝離出的GoTo Logistics後推進。這些進度仰賴了GoTo甚至印尼政府的配合，目前看來配合度還不夠快。
2. Shopee仍行有餘力：雖然直播訂單的佔比沒有快速拉升，Shopee還是以其它的方式擴大了市場佔有率。從結果看，Q1電商事業的訂單數YoY增長57%、GMV增長36%、收入增長30%，每筆訂單的平均收入雖然降低，但市佔率立竿見影提升。公司自建的物流系統"SPX Express"，雖然成本高，但依歷史經驗能大幅優化服務品質與客戶體驗，目前已能處理亞洲50%的訂單。Shopee與TikTok在印尼的競爭，最後會變成在TikTok徹底合規前，Shopee可以走多遠，以及Shopee的廣告投放率還有多大的空間可供挹注。
3. 金融事業漸成主戰場：東南亞表態進入數位金融市場的創業公司很多，但盈利的公司很少，即便只從EBITDA的角度看，我們談過的Grab(NASDAQ: GRAB)與GoTo，目前也尚未盈利。現在看來，Sea的金融事業是能穩定盈利的，考慮到裡面很大一部分是由信貸業務貢獻，這當然是拜有Shopee的實體業務之賜，對風控與使用場景都有助益。Q1公司的金融事業收入YoY增長21%，Adjusted EBITDA增長50%，現在看來，Sea的問題不是能不能盈利，而是怎麼在Shopee Pay、SPL(Shopee PayLater)和BCL(現金貸款, Buy Cash Loan)中，以最低的融資成本，爭取最有利的利潤率，並把數位金融業務擴展到Shopee生態系之外。
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Sea Group (NYSE: SE) recently announced its Q1 2024 financial results. While TikTok and Sea's Shopee are only battling in Indonesia, a corner of Southeast Asia, this clash between live-streaming and traditional e-commerce in a populous nation has attracted global attention. At the end of Q1, Sea’s e-commerce revenue soared by 30% YoY and 6% QoQ, driving the group's overall revenue up by 23% YoY and 3% QoQ. The division's adjusted EBITDA loss was significantly reduced to $21.7 million, compared to losses of $350 million in Q3 and $230 million in Q4. The key question is whether TikTok is not as strong as perceived or if Shopee genuinely has a competitive moat. Moreover, has Sea's financial services sector truly advanced beyond mere hype? This is what investors are curious about, and Haizei Capital has attempted to provide some answers.
1. TikTok is not fully operational yet: Observations from Q1 indicate that Shopee's live-streaming orders remain similar to Q4, at around 15%. This suggests that Shopee's growth is not eroding TikTok's live-commerce market share, and appears more due to TikTok's slow compliance progress in Indonesia. According to GoTo (IDX: GOTO), to address the Indonesian government's ban on live-stream selling, TikTok must collaborate with Tokopedia (spun off from GoTo) for e-commerce transactions on the Shop Tokopedia system. This partnership will extend to other Southeast Asian countries. Additionally, TikTok's logistics developments depend on acquiring GoTo's spin-off, GoTo Logistics. The progress relies heavily on cooperation from GoTo and the Indonesian government, which currently seems insufficiently rapid.
2. Shopee still has room to grow: Despite a slow increase in the proportion of live-streaming orders, Shopee has expanded its market share in other ways. In Q1, its e-commerce operations saw a 57% YoY increase in order volume, a 36% increase in GMV, and a 30% revenue growth. Although the average revenue per order decreased, market share visibly improved. Shopee's in-house logistics system, "SPX Express," although costly, has significantly enhanced service quality and customer experience, now handling 50% of orders in Asia. The competition between Shopee and TikTok in Indonesia will ultimately depend on how far Shopee can advance before TikTok fully complies with regulations, and how much potential there is for Shopee to increase its advertising spend.
3. Financial services are becoming the main battleground: Many startups in Southeast Asia are entering the digital finance market, but few are profitable, even when considering EBITDA alone. Companies we've discussed, such as Grab (NASDAQ: GRAB) and GoTo, are not yet profitable. However, Sea's financial division appears to be sustainably profitable, largely due to contributions from its credit business, bolstered by Shopee's physical operations which enhance risk control and use cases. In Q1, Sea's financial services revenue grew by 21% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 50%. The challenge for Sea is not about profitability, but how to secure the most favorable profit margins with the lowest financing costs through Shopee Pay, SPL (Shopee PayLater), and BCL (Buy Cash Loan), and to expand its digital finance operations beyond the Shopee ecosystem.
標籤 Label： NYSE: SE Shopee TikTok GOTO E-commerce Fintech