登錄
選單
登錄
海擇短評 Haize Comment：
攜程集團(NASDAQ: TCOM)近期公告2024Q1財報。自2023年12月，攜程集團市值不斷走升，市值最高距2017年的歷史高點391億美金不到5%；依Q1財報結算數據，除了交通與住宿收入創下歷史次高外，集團收入的YoY年增率達29%，EBITDA利潤率為33%，運營利潤達33.2億人民幣；若推估全年運營利潤能達150億人民幣(20.1億美金)，換算現在的本益比不到20倍，市值走升到也不奇怪。不過，一如許多有超預期表現的行業頭部公司，攜程並沒有對接下來是否仍會超預期，給到明確的承諾。因此，我們對本季財報更關心(回報快的)出境事業發展與(需要投入時間的)各類細分市場新機會。海擇資本在此說明如下：
1. 出境事業重點不在於Trip.com平台：出境遊對攜程很重要，重要之處不僅在於服務境外客源的Trip.com平台本身。其實攜程把Trip.com平台做得有點重，Q1對集團總收入的貢獻也僅10%；重點在於通過做境外客源，攜程能對境內外各類的供應商更有價格與庫存的控制力，從而在服務中國出境客源的過程中，掌握更好的利潤率。事實上，在中國人出境的部分，目前沒有其他中國旅遊公司能與攜程抗衡。Q1中國國際航班運力約回升至2019年的70%，出境機票價格約在2019年的115%，而去年同期則在130%以上；若如民航局預測，年底運力回升至80%，將對出境更有利。反映在攜程收入上，攜程全球平台在亞太地區的收入，年增率約80%，而全球平台的收入約70%來自亞洲市場，看來能完整的吃下出境紅利；依公司說明，五一假期，攜程境內外旅遊預訂量再創新高，其中出境機票和酒店預訂量較2019年高20%，也印證了我們的推斷。
2. 探索銀髮族與入境遊細分市場：本次攜程提到了幾個細分市場，一個是從年齡區分的銀髮族市場，數據預估2025年，能經常出遊的健康老年人數量預計將超過1億人，總市場規模超過1兆人民幣；由於這類人群兼具休閒旅遊和淡季旅遊的傾向，代表著中國境內市場的成長機會；另一個則是中國入境旅遊市場，這個市場現在不大，但相信會得到政策面的支持，具有數兆人民幣的潛在市場規模。另外一些規模較小的新市場，則涵蓋了針對年輕人推出娛樂活動+旅遊等新產品組合；以及從區域上爭取大二、三線城市用戶群，提高用戶獲取和交叉銷售率。
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Trip.com Group (NASDAQ: TCOM) recently released its Q1 2024 financial report. Since December 2023, the company's market value has been rising, now just under 5% away from its 2017 peak of $39.1 billion. According to the Q1 data, besides reaching near-historic highs in transportation and accommodation revenue, the group's YoY revenue growth rate was 29%, with an EBITDA margin of 33%, and operating profit of RMB 3.32 billion. With an estimated annual operating profit of RMB 15 billion ($2.01 billion), which translates to a current P/E ratio of less than 20 times, it is not surprising that the market value has risen. However, like many leading companies with better-than-expected performance, Trip.com has not made clear commitments about continuing to exceed expectations. Therefore, our focus this quarter is more on the rapid development of outbound business and new opportunities in various niche markets, as explained by Haize Capital.
1. The focus of Trip.com's outbound business extends beyond the Trip.com platform itself, which contributed only 10% to the group’s total revenue in Q1. The significance lies in controlling pricing and inventory with suppliers both domestically and internationally, thereby achieving better profit margins in serving Chinese outbound tourists. Currently, no other Chinese travel company can compete with Trip.com in this segment. In Q1, the capacity of international flights in China recovered to about 70% of 2019 levels, with outbound ticket prices at about 115% of 2019 prices. If, as predicted by the Civil Aviation Administration, capacity increases to 80% by year-end, this will further benefit outbound travel. Reflecting this, Trip.com's global platform revenue in the Asia-Pacific region grew by about 80% YoY, with about 70% of the global platform's revenue coming from the Asian market, indicating Trip.com is fully capitalizing on the outbound travel boom. During the May Day holiday, Trip.com’s domestic and international bookings reached new highs, with outbound flights and hotel bookings up 20% compared to 2019, confirming our analysis.
2. Trip.com is exploring niche markets including the senior traveler segment and inbound tourism. For the senior market, it is projected that by 2025, over 100 million active, healthy seniors will generate a market exceeding 1 trillion RMB. This demographic tends to travel during off-peak seasons, indicating significant growth opportunities within China. The Chinese inbound tourism market, currently small, is expected to receive government support and has a potential worth trillions of RMB. Additionally, smaller new markets being targeted include entertainment and travel product combinations for young people, as well as efforts to attract users from second and third-tier cities to improve customer acquisition and cross-selling rates.
標籤 Label： TCOM Tourism Outbound Inbound