日本2024年3月旅遊交易概況：出境產品交易額比2019年同期下降33%
Japan's Travel Transaction Profile for March 2024: Outbound Product Transactions Down 33% from Same Period in 2019

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

日本觀光廳(JNTO)近期公告公佈日本43家國內主要旅遊社2024年3月的旅遊交易額月報(2024年3月の旅行取扱状況)。從月報公告的旅行社交易額看，總交易額(4,211億日圓)已與2019年同月接近，僅略低6%；其中，國內旅行費用為2,806億日圓，較2019年同月成長12%，但較去年同月下降36%。海擇資本對日本出境遊的恢復與結構更感興趣，依相關數據說明如下：

1. 從出境總人次看，3月日本人出境人次共122萬，仍較2019年同期低37%；而4月日本人出境人次(89萬人次)再次回跌，較2019年同期低47%。我們認為這會是日本匯率貶值與消費疲軟引發的中長期現象。

2. 從旅行社的銷售額看，3月日本人購買43家主要旅遊社出境產品的交易額為1,167億日圓，與2019年同月相比下降33%。考慮到通貨膨脹，銷售額的下跌率與出境總人次的下跌率大體一致，尚看不出日本人出境是否更傾向或更不傾向購買外資旅行社的散裝產品。

3. 如果從旅行社銷售的出境產品交易額中，單獨看團隊遊產品，交易額為128億日圓，與2019年同月相比下降了66%，團隊遊的下滑此前談過，不細表。

4. 如果從旅行社銷售的出境產品訂單數中，單獨看團隊遊產品的訂單數，與2019年同月相比下降了77%；平均每筆訂單金額從19.3萬日圓增長到28.6萬日圓，增幅達48%。海擇資本認為這意味著當前團隊遊訂單相對於疫情前更偏向(距離)長線與(價格)高端。

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The Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) recently released a report on the transaction volumes for March 2024 from 43 major domestic travel agencies. The total transaction volume reached 4.211 trillion yen, nearly matching March 2019's figures, with only a 6% decrease. Domestic travel spending was 280.6 billion yen, up 12% from March 2019, but down 36% compared to the same month last year. Haize Capital is particularly interested in the recovery and structural changes in Japan's outbound tourism, as indicated by the relevant data.

1. In March, the number of Japanese travelers going abroad was 1.22 million, still 37% lower than in the same period in 2019, and this number fell further to 890,000 in April, 47% lower than in April 2019. We believe this trend, influenced by the depreciation of the Japanese yen and weak consumer spending, could be a medium to long-term phenomenon.

2. In terms of sales, Japanese purchases of outbound travel products from 43 main travel agencies amounted to 116.7 billion yen in March, a 33% decrease from March 2019. Considering inflation, the drop in sales aligns roughly with the decrease in the number of outbound travelers, indicating no clear shift in Japanese travelers' preference for or against products from foreign-owned travel agencies.

3. Focusing solely on group travel products, the transaction value in March was 12.8 billion yen, a 66% decrease from March 2019, a previously discussed decline.

4. For group travel orders specifically, there was a 77% decrease compared to March 2019. However, the average order value increased from 193,000 yen to 286,000 yen, a rise of 48%. Haize Capital interprets this as an indication that current group travel bookings are leaning towards longer and more expensive trips compared to pre-pandemic levels.

標籤 Label： JNTO  Tourism  Domestic  Outbound