登錄
選單
登錄
海擇短評 Haize Comment：
此前海擇資本在2022年Trivago(NASDAQ: TRVG)的EBITDA創下歷史新高時，談到以削減行銷支出換取盈利的方式是寅吃卯糧，三年內將出現重大風險。近期公司公告Q1財報，僅一年半就重新陷入虧損，印證了我們的論點。我們認為，要判斷Trivago是否能恢復對投資人的吸引力，可以從新團隊的行銷手段與是否能擺脫對巨頭的依賴這兩處觀察：
1. 電視行銷光榮難再：Trivago從2022年後疫情期盈利以來，就陷入了盈利上升但收入下滑的高風險結構，收入在2023年更以YoY兩位數的速度下滑，終在本季轉為虧損。單季Adjusted EBITDA虧損920萬美金雖然不大，但收入不斷下滑是真正困境。上季度回歸公司管理層的CEO(Johannes Thomas)、CMO(Jasmine Ezz)與CPO(Andrej Lehnert)，亦即原CRO(Chief Revenue Officer)、原全球媒體購買主管(Global Head of Media Buying)、原CPO，目前看來回歸的管理層仍難以擺脫對此前成功路徑的依賴，找不到電視廣告以外的行銷方式，人工智慧只被用以優化所投放的電視頻道。海擇資本認為，Trivago過往的成功是來自於當主流受眾從電視遷徙到網媒的過程中，它掌握住投放電視媒體最具性價比的時間段，但這個機會窗口現在已難以複製。
2. 難以擺脫對巨頭的依賴：原團隊回歸Trivago前，公司約有70%到80%的收入來自Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)與Expedia(NASDAQ: EXPE)的貢獻；雖然Trivago近期沒有披露客戶結構，但從收入結構看，Q1的1.01億歐元收入有83%來自於付費廣告位，僅17%來自於通過比價搜索與最低價自然排序位的點擊付費(具體在APP的展示可以參見附圖)。雖然新團隊回歸後，公司強調要提供最佳的交易發現體驗(offer the best deal discovery experience)；但在海擇資本看來，對於消費者來說最直觀、最具轉化率的版面，已被作為"付費廣告位"販售給以Booking及Expedia這類廣告主，而這些付費廣告位所展示的住宿產品，未必為消費者最想要的最低價產品。目前Trivago只能依賴這樣的戰略存活，但這樣的戰略又降低了其定位為元搜索的價值，如不痛下決心擺脫依賴，終將自取滅亡。
-------
Previously, when Trivago's (NASDAQ: TRVG) reached record-high EBITDA in 2022, Haize Capital described their strategy of cutting marketing expenses to boost profits as short-sighted, predicting significant risks within three years. The recent Q1 earnings, showing a return to losses in just a year and a half, confirms our viewpoint. We believe that assessing whether Trivago can regain investor appeal hinges on the new team's marketing strategies and their ability to reduce dependence on major players.
1.TV marketing glory difficult to repeat: Since its post-pandemic profit in 2022, Trivago has faced a high-risk scenario with rising profits but declining revenue, falling in a loss this quarter as revenues dropped at a double-digit YoY rate in 2023. The adjusted EBITDA loss of $9.2 million this quarter, while not large, underscores the real challenge of continuous revenue decline. The returning management team, including CEO Johannes Thomas, CMO Jasmine Ezz, and CPO Andrej Lehnert, has struggled to move beyond their previous success, relying primarily on TV advertising. AI is only used to optimize TV channel placements. Haize Capital notes that Trivago's past success was due to capturing cost-effective TV media slots as mainstream audiences shifted from TV to online media, an opportunity that is now difficult to replicate.
2. Trivago's dependency on giants remains problematic: Prior to the original team's return, about 70% to 80% of its revenue came from contributions by Booking (NASDAQ: BKNG) and Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE). Although recent customer structure has not been disclosed, Q1 revenue of €101 million saw 83% from paid advertising and only 17% from pay-per-click on price comparison and lowest price natural rankings, as seen in the image below. Despite the new team emphasizing the best deal discovery experience, Haize Capital observes that the most intuitive and high-conversion placements are sold as "paid advertising spaces" to advertisers like Booking and Expedia. These spaces often don't offer the lowest priced products consumers seek. Trivago's survival depends on this strategy, which diminishes its value as a meta-search engine. Without a decisive shift away from this dependence, the results could be serious.
標籤 Label： TRVG Marketing BKNG EXPE