印尼GoTo與TikTok成立合資公司之後
After Indonesia's GoTo and TikTok set up a joint venture company

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

有時分析師參加一家公司的財報電話會議，是為了瞭解另一家公司的現況，本季印尼網約車與配送巨頭GoTo(IDX: GOTO)的電話會議，就存在這個現象--顯然分析師與投資人更關心TikTok的進展。隨著GoTo完成與TikTok的交易，原處於GoTo集團旗下的Tokopedia和GoTo Logistics之收入，將從1月31日起不再併表於集團財報。在集團僅剩網約車、配送與金融服務後，我們對GoTo的觀察重點，將從Tokopedia的集團整合效益，轉為與Grab的市場競合與GoPay的未來空間。海擇資本披露部分觀點如下：

1. 福兮、禍兮：公司在本季電話會議披露了與TikTok的交易在財報上的影響。在與TikTok成立合資公司後，合資的母公司Tokopedia將從集團剝離；此外，GoTo旗下的物流公司"GoTo Logistics"也將同步剝離於集團，售予TikTok，未來將專注於履行商配送業務。也就是說，自2月1日起，GoTo集已成為更像Uber(NYSE: UBER)、可說是完全與Grab(NASDAQ: GRAB)對標的網約車及配送公司。財務上除了有售出GoTo Logistics與Tokopedia的一次性收入外，每季度也將基於權益法認列來自Tokopedia的損益。對於不相信Tokopedia能與Gojek產生綜效的人，這是天大的好消息，剛好我們就是這類人。

2. EBITDA轉盈不能做為參考：精確地說，在Grab與GoTo競爭的過程中，GoTo所訂立今年EBITDA轉盈的指標，已不完全能作為運營實力的參考。因為公司會有太多本業以外的收入，除了售出GoTo Logistics與Tokopedia的部份股權會為今年帶來龐大的一次性收入外；基於權益法能從Tokopedia認列的盈利，在Q1(僅在2月與3月認列)已有640萬美元，推估正常一個季度能有約1,000萬美元，這筆費用隨著TikTok事業做大還會增加。由於Shop Tokopedia是TikTok的嵌入式電子商務平台，還會在更多國家使用，潛在市場不小。因此，雖然集團Q1的Adjusted EBITDA從盈轉虧，變成虧損636萬美元，但全年要轉盈如反手折枝，也將成為Grab無法單靠運營擊敗的勁敵。

3. TikTok是GoTo的貴人：TikTok對GoTo的助力止於GoTo Logistics與Tokopedia嗎？還不止，按照雙方協議，負責TikTok交易的Shop Tokopedia，還會以GoPay為主要支付工具，這對GoPay的滲透會有很大的幫助，甚至有可能因此比GoTo自己的網約車業務更快的國際化。從金融事業增長的角度看，GoPay瞬間成為能問鼎東南亞支付巨頭的種子選手；從地緣政治的角度看，這類讓利或許也是TikTok處理地緣政治分歧的最好解決方案。

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Sometimes analysts attend a company's earnings call to understand another company's situation. This was the case with the earnings call of Indonesian ride-hailing and delivery giant GoTo (IDX: GOTO), where analysts and investors seemed more interested in TikTok's developments. Following GoTo's deal with TikTok, revenues from Tokopedia and GoTo Logistics, previously under the GoTo Group, will no longer be consolidated in the group's financial reports starting January 31. With only ride-hailing, delivery, and financial services remaining in the group, our focus shifts from the integration benefits of Tokopedia to market competition with Grab and the potential of GoPay. Some insights from Haize Capital are disclosed as follows:

1. Fortune or Misfortune: During this quarter's earnings call, the company revealed the financial impact of its deal with TikTok. Following the formation of a joint venture, the parent company Tokopedia will be spun off from the group; additionally, GoTo's logistics arm "GoTo Logistics" will also be divested to TikTok, focusing on fulfillment and delivery services. As of February 1, GoTo has transformed into a pure ride-hailing and delivery company, akin to Uber (NYSE: UBER) and directly comparable to Grab (NASDAQ: GRAB). Financially, aside from the one-time revenue from selling GoTo Logistics and Tokopedia, quarterly earnings will also recognize profits and losses from Tokopedia based on equity accounting. This is great news for those skeptical of Tokopedia's synergy with Gojek, and we belong to that group.

2. EBITDA Profitability Not a Reliable Metric: Specifically, GoTo's EBITDA profitability goal for this year, set amidst competition with Grab, no longer serves as a complete reference for operational strength due to substantial non-core income. Apart from massive one-time revenues from selling GoTo Logistics and partial stakes in Tokopedia; profit recognition from Tokopedia based on equity method amounted to $6.4 million in Q1 (only in February and March), with an estimated normal quarterly profit of about $10 million, expected to increase as TikTok's business expands. Since Shop Tokopedia is an embedded e-commerce platform within TikTok, it will expand to more countries, tapping into significant markets. Thus, despite the group’s Q1 Adjusted EBITDA turning from a profit to a loss of $6.36 million, achieving profitability for the year is feasible and will position GoTo as a formidable competitor that Grab cannot defeat solely through operations.

3. TikTok: GoTo's Benefactor: Does TikTok’s support for GoTo end with GoTo Logistics and Tokopedia? No, according to the agreement between the parties, Shop Tokopedia, which handles TikTok transactions, will also use GoPay as its primary payment method. This greatly aids GoPay's market penetration and might even enable it to internationalize faster than GoTo's own ride-hailing business. From a financial growth perspective, GoPay instantly becomes a contender for leading payment service in Southeast Asia; geopolitically, such concessions may also represent TikTok's optimal strategy for navigating geopolitical discrepancies. 

標籤 Label： IDX: GOTO  TikTok  Investment  NASDAQ: GRAB  NYSE: UBER