韓國: 166億美元經濟補貼能否激勵生育率?
South Korea: Whether $16.6 Billion in Economic Subsidies Boost Fertility?

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

近期韓國反腐敗和民權委員會(Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission)對緩解低出生率的可行措施做了調查，其中關於補貼金額的量級，引起了激烈爭論。調查詢問若政府為每位新生兒提供1億韓元(72,350美元)的補貼，是否可以激勵生育，以及國民是否同意為此激勵措施花費總數高達23兆韓元(166億美元)的政府預算。

該規劃的由來還是在於東亞國家共同存在的低生育率問題，海擇資本此前也披露過，依據東亞各地的人口權責單位數據，2023年台灣、日本、韓國、中國的出生人口數分別較2022年減少2.5%、5.1%、5.7%、5.6%，韓國的減速最高。此外，根據韓國統計局預測，迄2024年年底，韓國的總生育率將從目前的每名女性生育0.72個新生兒，進一步下降至0.68個新生兒，續創歷史新低。而考慮嬰兒可能因為疾病或其他原因死亡，無法長大成人，一般來說，已開發國家的總和生育率至少要達到2.10，才能達到世代更替水準，不會讓人口總數隨著世代更替而下降；而許多國家的財稅、社會及福利制度則是建立在生育率更高才能維持的基礎上。

不意外的，固然有不少回覆認為經濟補貼是"最切實、最有幫助的做法"；也有許多人持不同看法，認為補貼不能成為解決持續人口危機的"根本解決方案"，1億韓元並不能讓父母辭掉工作，專心在家照顧小孩，也有人擔心該政策會讓部分父母為了貪圖補貼而疏忽和虐待兒童。海擇資本認為，無論如何，經濟問題還是多數人選擇不生小孩的重要考量之一，若韓國真的確定推行該政策，將締造東亞國家最為強而有力的生育補貼紀錄。

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Recently, South Korea's Anti-Corruption and Civil Rights Commission conducted a survey on viable measures to alleviate low birth rates, sparking intense debate over the scale of subsidies. The survey asked whether a government subsidy of 100 million Korean Won (approximately $72,350) for each newborn could boost childbirth, and if citizens would agree to a total government budget of 23 trillion Korean Won (around $16.6 billion) for this incentive.

The plan originates from the shared problem of low fertility rates in East Asian countries. Haize Capital previously disclosed that according to population authorities in East Asia, the number of births in 2023 compared to 2022 decreased by 2.5% in Taiwan, 5.1% in Japan, 5.7% in South Korea, and 5.6% in China, with South Korea experiencing the highest decline. Moreover, according to forecasts by Statistics Korea, by the end of 2024, South Korea's total fertility rate is expected to drop from the current 0.72 children per woman to a new historic low of 0.68. Considering that some infants may not survive due to illness or other reasons, a total fertility rate of at least 2.10 is generally needed in developed countries to maintain population stability across generations; otherwise, the total population declines with each generation. Many countries' fiscal, social, and welfare systems are based on maintaining higher fertility rates.

Unsurprisingly, while many responses view economic subsidies as "the most tangible and helpful approach," others disagree, arguing that subsidy is not a "fundamental solution" to the ongoing demographic crisis. A subsidy of 100 million Korean Won may not enable parents to quit their jobs to focus on childcare, and there are concerns that some people could take advantage of the policy to earn money which result in child negligence and abuse. Haize Capital notes that economic factors remain a major reason why many choose not to have children. If South Korea indeed implements this policy, it would set a record for the most substantial fertility subsidy among East Asian countries.

標籤 Label： Korea  Subsidy  Fertility  Demographic  Solution  East Asia