韓國出境人數連續三個月減少
Korean outbound tourists dropping for three consecutive months

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

近期韓國旅遊發展局(KTO)公布了4月的出入境旅遊人次數據，海擇資本認為有一些趨勢值得注意與印證：

1. 韓國人出境人數連續三個月減少：4月韓國出境人次為211萬人次，YoY增長41%，達2019年同期的94%。雖然從年化看仍屬大幅成長，但若將1月至4月做MoM對比，由於1月到3月的出境人次分別為277萬人次、251萬人次、214萬人次，亦即連續3個月出現衰退。雖然2月到4月有淡季效應，但從HanaTour和Mode Tour公告的5月運營數據來看，儘管5月有勞動節、兒童節、佛誕日等多個假期，但對出境旅遊市場未產生重大影響，HanaTour(KRX: 089130)的5月旅客人次僅較4月增長10%，Mode Tour(KOSDAQ: 080160)則從去年12月起連續5個月下降。

2. 外國旅客入境人次略現停滯：今年以來快速增長的外國遊客數量在四月略有放緩。入境外國遊客人數從1月到4月分別為88萬人次、103萬人次、149萬人次、146萬人次，4月雖略有放緩，但就1月至4月累計的入境外國遊客人次看，總計約487萬人次，已較2019年同期恢復89%，整體增長動能與出境相比，仍有成長空間。

3. 中國連續四個月處韓國入境市場最大客源：1-4月，中國連續四個月佔據入境市場最大份額，分別為28萬人次、34萬人次、39萬人次、41萬人次，增長未受季節性因素影響。4月入境韓國最多的旅客客源來自中國，其次是日本(23萬人次)、美國(12萬人次)、台灣(12萬人次)和越南(5萬人次)；其中美國和台灣兩地客源都高於2019年同期，分別成長20%和4%。

4. 出入境迄今尚未超過2019年同月水準：整體來看，海擇資本研判，韓國的出境旅遊趨勢已從報復性旅遊回歸常態，今年即便恢復至2019年同期，也不會成長太多；入境旅遊則要看中國旅客的恢復速度與本身各產品線SKU的拓展速度，特別是當地玩樂的層面。

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Recently, the Korea Tourism Organization (KTO) released the travel data for April, and Haize Capital noted some trends worth noting and confirming:

1. The number of South Koreans traveling abroad has decreased for three consecutive months: In April, the outbound travel figure was 2.11 million, a 41% year-over-year increase, reaching 94% of the same period in 2019. While still showing significant annual growth, month-over-month comparisons from January to April show declines, with numbers at 2.77 million in January, 2.51 million in February, and 2.14 million in March. Despite the low season effect from February to April, May's operation data from HanaTour (KRX: 089130) and Mode Tour (KOSDAQ: 080160) indicated minimal impact from holidays such as Labor Day, Children's Day, and Buddha's Birthday. HanaTour only saw a 10% increase in travelers in May compared to April, while Mode Tour reported a continuous decline for five months since December last year.

2. Slight stagnation in foreign visitor arrivals: The rapid increase in the number of foreign visitors since the beginning of the year slowed slightly in April. From January to April, the number of foreign visitors entering the country was 880,000, 1.03 million, 1.49 million, and 1.46 million, respectively. Although there was a slight slowdown in April, the total number of foreign visitors from January to April was approximately 4.87 million, which has recovered to 89% of the same period in 2019. The overall growth momentum, compared to outbound travel, still has room for growth.

3. China remains the largest source market for South Korea's inbound tourism for four consecutive months: From January to April, China consistently held the largest share, with arrivals of 280,000, 340,000, 390,000, and 410,000 respectively, showing growth unaffected by seasonal factors. In April, the largest group of inbound tourists to South Korea were from China, followed by Japan (230,000), the USA (120,000), Taiwan (120,000), and Vietnam (50,000); both the USA and Taiwan exceeded their April 2019 figures, growing by 20% and 4%, respectively.

4. Travel numbers have not yet surpassed same period 2019 levels: Overall, Haize Capital assesses that South Korea's outbound travel trends have returned to normal from post-pandemic revenge travel, and this year's figures, even if they recover to 2019 levels, will not see significant growth. Inbound tourism will depend on the recovery speed of Chinese tourists and the expansion rate of each product line SKU, especially in local activities.

標籤 Label： Korea  Outbound  Inbound  Tourism  China  Activity