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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
韓國旅行社Hanatour(KRX: 039130)近期與工會進行集體談判，勞資雙方焦點集中在"就業保障協議"，內容包括“保證維持員工就業，直至轉售後業務穩定”，這也在多方關注到公司將大幅釋股超過四分之一股權。無論是釋出新股充實公司運營資金，或是老股持有人釋股落袋為安，都顯示出公司與現有股東的不安全感；有趣的是， Hanatour在2023年的全年運營利潤超過2019年近5倍，2024Q1甚至單季淨利就比2019全年的高過3倍，這些不安全感究竟源於何處？海擇資本試圖解讀於下：
1. 盈利來自於降低成本：以Hanatour的財報來看，後疫情2023年全年運營利潤達340億韓元(2,465萬美元)，甚至2024Q1就賺了216億韓元(1,566萬美元)，分別是2019年全年運營利潤59億韓元(428萬美元)的4.8X與3.6X，看似完美的印鈔機。但其實這有賴於各類成本的大幅降低，除了附圖數據可供參考，最明顯的是員工數的纔減，公司在2020年初的員工數為2,406人，在疫情期減少至1,174人，即便歷經報復性旅遊大幅盈利，2024Q1的員工數也只有1,288人，僅較疫情間新增114人，仍比2020年初的員工數減少46%。
2. 未來不確定性仍高：公司的不安也完全可以理解，即便2023全年運營利潤超過2019年接近5倍，但全年淨收入4,416億韓元僅達2019年同期的54%；2024Q1雖然淨收入做到1,833億韓元，已達2019年同期的80%，但從Q2已知的總體經濟數據看來，報復性旅遊潮已臻結束。我們此前也談過，基於歐美中俄多邊的地緣政治關係所出現的反全球化步伐不會停止，即便各國CPI的數字再怎麼好看，通膨的影響不會消失，而Hanatour對於旅遊新常態的控制力仍屬未知。
3. 從"大者恆大"到"大者危懼"：其實這樣的不安全感不只發生在Hanatour這樣的旅遊業巨頭，也不只發生在韓國，這是全世界都正在發生的現象。以美國看，Google(NASDAQ: GOOG)、Meta(NASDAQ: META)、Netflix(NASDAQ: NFLX)、微軟(NASDAQ: MSFT)的運營利潤都維持高點甚至再創新高，但具有量級的裁員浪潮一波接一波，這迥異於過去盈利不佳時才出現的量級式裁員。帶有社會主義基因的中國公司，則用另一種方式處理不安全感，阿里巴巴(NYSE: BABA)近期公告將發行可轉換債券籌集45億美元，攜程集團(NASDAQ: TCOM)則同樣發行可轉換債券籌集13億美元，而阿里巴巴2023年運營利潤達153億美元，攜程集團則為16億美元，兩家盈利能力都創歷史新高，現在一不打價格戰，二不缺運營資金，為什麼需要融資？我們認為這些中美公司的目的都不是美化財報，而是基於對未來的不安全感，臨淵履薄，用各種方式備妥資金迎戰不確定的風險。
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Recently, South Korean travel agency Hanatour (KRX: 039130) engaged in collective bargaining with its union, focusing on an "employment security agreement" that includes "guaranteeing employee retention until business stabilizes after resale." This comes amid significant attention to the company releasing over a quarter of its shares. Whether issuing new shares to boost operational funds or existing shareholders selling off their shares for security, both actions reflect insecurity among the company and its shareholders. Interestingly, Hanatour's operating profit in 2023 was nearly five times higher than in 2019, and its net profit in Q1 2024 was more than three times higher than the entire year of 2019. Haize Capital attempts to interpret where these insecurities stem from.
1. Profits from cost reduction: Hanatour's financial reports show that the post-pandemic year of 2023 saw operating profits of 34 billion KRW ($24.65 million), and even Q1 2024 earned 21.6 billion KRW ($15.66 million), which are 4.8 and 3.6 times the 2019 annual operating profits of 5.9 billion KRW ($4.28 million) respectively. However, this is largely due to significant cost reductions, notably in employee numbers. From 2,406 employees at the start of 2020, the number dropped to 1,174 during the pandemic. Even after a profitable rebound in travel, Q1 2024 only saw an increase to 1,288 employees—just 114 more than during the pandemic and still 46% lower than at the beginning of 2020.
2. High future uncertainty: The company's unease is understandable, as even though the full-year operating profit for 2023 was nearly five times higher than in 2019, the annual net revenue of 441.6 billion KRW only reached 54% of the 2019 level. In Q1 2024, net revenue reached 183.3 billion KRW, which is 80% of the corresponding period in 2019, but economic data from Q2 indicates that the revenge travel boom has ended. We have previously discussed how the anti-globalization trend triggered by geopolitical relations among Europe, America, China, and Russia will not cease. Despite favorable CPI figures from various countries, inflation's impact remains, and Hanatour's ability to manage the new normal in travel is still uncertain.
3. From "big always wins" to "big is fearful": This insecurity isn't unique to travel giants like Hanatour or to South Korea; it's a global phenomenon. In the U.S., companies like Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), Meta (NASDAQ: META), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) maintain high or record operating profits, yet face waves of significant layoffs, unlike the past where large-scale layoffs occurred only during poor profit periods. Socialist-influenced Chinese companies address this insecurity differently; Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) recently announced a convertible bond issue to raise $4.5 billion, and Trip.com Group (NASDAQ: TCOM) is raising $1.3 billion similarly, despite both posting historic high profits—$15.3 billion for Alibaba and $1.6 billion for Trip.com in 2023. Neither is engaging in price wars nor lacking operational funds, so why the fundraising? We believe the motive for these Chinese and American companies is not to beautify financial statements but to prepare for uncertain risks due to a deep sense of insecurity about the future.
標籤 Label： Travel agency Tourism KRX: 039130 NASDAQ: TCOM