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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
近期西班牙重要度假目的地巴塞隆納市政府公告，迄2028年11月，巴塞隆納將取消目前已批准的10,101套短租公寓的許可證，以減緩市民難買房的經濟危機。海擇資本認為，本事件兼有民生經濟與可持續旅遊議題，除了會影響巴塞隆納的住宿價格與住宿業者競爭格局，也可能一葉知秋，對歐洲重要的旅遊城市起到重大影響。
本次巴塞隆納市政府公布該重大決策，主要原因與互聯網共享經濟帶動中產階級購置房地產、投資短期租賃的偏好有關，這除了帶動短租公寓數量迅速增加，也影響當地居民與工作者買不起房。當地市長Jaume Collboni表示，過去10年租金上漲了68%，買房成本上漲了38%，住房問題成為當地最大的經濟危機，尤其是對年輕人而言，因此推動了該政策。
根據AirDNA數據，截至2024年，巴塞隆納的民宿物業總數約為23,000間。這些物業包括各類可供旅客住宿用的短租產品，如別墅、整套房屋、單一房間和共用房間，並且分佈在不同的短租平台上，如Airbnb、Booking和Vrbo。海擇資本認為，本次巴塞隆納市撤銷的許可證高達各OTA除重後總SKU的一半，佔比不小，會產生如下的影響：
1. 對當地短租平台與物業業主的議價權。未來巴塞隆納民宿供給量將減少一半，如果當地政府再嚴格檢查灰色地帶的民宿，還會下降更多；這會高度影響到短租平台跟業主斡旋時的籌碼，特別是原本獨佔性高的平台。
2. 住宿產品單價將大幅上升。巴塞隆納酒店的SKU不多，僅有數百間，原本高達20,000的短租供給能以量制價，考慮到整體住宿SKU的供給將大幅降低，酒店的單價會迅速提升，特別是在旺季。這對以酒店與OTA的盈利都有助益。
3. 歐洲主要旅遊城市可能繼續反映該議題。可持續旅遊是歐盟的主要趨勢，加諸歐洲議會改選後大舉右傾，更注重本國人民權益。本事件雖起於巴塞隆納，但不會止於巴塞隆納，也不會僅對西班牙產生衝擊，可能對歐洲旅遊GDP較大國家的主要城市，與歐洲人均旅遊GDP較大國家的主要城市，都會有一定程度的影響，供應鏈相關公司與投資人可以先行留意。
註一：歐洲旅遊GDP前十大國家(2023)
1. 法國 - 232.9億美元
2. 西班牙 - 209.2億美元
3. 德國 - 159.2億美元
4. 意大利 - 127.1億美元
5. 英國 - 106.4億美元
6. 土耳其 - 98.3億美元
7. 瑞士 - 65.7億美元
8. 荷蘭 - 63.2億美元
9. 希臘 - 45.8億美元
10. 葡萄牙 - 35.2億美元
註二：歐洲人均旅遊GDP前十大國家(2023)
1. 盧森堡 - 12,656美元
2. 冰島 - 9,118美元
3. 瑞士 - 7,640美元
4. 挪威 - 4,556美元
5. 西班牙 - 4,451美元
6. 希臘 - 4,362美元
7. 荷蘭 - 3,719美元
8. 奧地利 - 3,500美元
9. 法國 - 3,476美元
10. 丹麥 - 3,466美元
資料來源：World Bank, Haize Capital
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The Barcelona city government recently announced that by November 2028, it will revoke the licenses of 10,101 approved short-term rental apartments to address the economic crisis of housing affordability for its residents. Haize Capital believes this move involves both socioeconomic and sustainable tourism issues. It could affect accommodation prices and competition in Barcelona and potentially have a significant impact on other major European tourist cities.
This decision by the Barcelona city government primarily stems from the middle class's preference for purchasing real estate and investing in short-term rentals, driven by the internet sharing economy. This has not only led to a rapid increase in the number of short-term rental apartments but has also made it difficult for local residents and workers to afford housing. Mayor Jaume Collboni noted that over the past decade, rent has increased by 68%, and the cost of buying a home has risen by 38%, making housing the most significant economic crisis locally, especially for young people, prompting this policy initiative.
According to AirDNA, as of 2024, Barcelona has approximately 23,000 vacation rental properties, including various types of short-term rentals like villas, entire homes, private rooms, and shared rooms, listed across platforms such as Airbnb, Booking, and Vrbo. Haize Capital notes that the permits revoked by the Barcelona city government represent up to half of the total SKU on these OTA platforms after accounting for overlap, a significant proportion, with the following impacts:
1. Bargaining power between local short-term platforms and property owners will be affected. With half of Barcelona's vacation rental supply set to decrease, and possibly more if the government cracks down on grey market rentals, this significantly impacts the leverage of platforms and owners, especially those with previously high exclusivity.
2. Unit prices for accommodations are likely to rise sharply. Barcelona hotels, with only a few hundred SKUs, previously balanced the high supply of 20,000 short-term rentals. With a significant reduction in overall accommodation supply, hotel prices are expected to rise quickly, particularly during peak seasons, benefiting hotel and OTA profits.
3. Other major European tourist cities may reflect on this issue. Sustainable tourism is a major trend in the EU, and with the European Parliament shifting rightward after the latest elections, there's a greater focus on the rights of local citizens. While this policy starts in Barcelona, it is likely to extend beyond and impact not only Spain but also major cities in European countries with significant travel GDP, affecting related supply chains and investors.
標籤 Label： Short-term Rental Barcelona Travel GDP EU Hotel