2024年4月, 日本出境遊用什麼樣的姿勢復甦？
The recovery scenario of Japanese outbound tourism in April 2024

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

日本觀光廳近期公佈了2024年4月43家國內主要旅行社的旅遊收入初步報告"主要旅行業43社・グループの2024年4月の旅行取扱状況"。乍看之下，本月日本旅行社在團隊遊領域迅速擴張，增速達215%。由於日本5月黃金周，為暑期旺季的先行指標，而團隊遊產品大體都在4月提前付費，是否日本團隊遊再返榮景，海擇資本簡單歸納4月數據給到本身觀點：

1. 出境遊快速復甦。按照4月數據，日本旅行社國內旅遊交易額持平，為1,582億日圓，YoY僅微幅增長0.1%；而出境遊快速恢復，達842億日圓，較2023年增長54%。不過要注意的是，即便相對2023年有大幅增長，出境遊交易額仍僅達2019年的51%，整體交易額也僅恢復2019年的64%。

2. 4月出境遊中的跟團遊部分，交易額為24億日圓，YoY大增215%；但相對2019年，僅恢復24%，亦即在出境遊層面，跟團遊產品的復甦速度遠較自由行產品慢。

3. 從出境遊中跟團遊的佔比來看，2019年同期為20%，2023年僅有4%；而2024年4月恢復至10%。從這角度看，與其說是跟團遊佔比爆漲，不如說佔比恢復到後疫情期10%的合理狀態。

4. 再從人次看，旅行社出境團隊遊的輸送人次復甦較交易額復甦為慢。反映在客單價上，2024、2023、2019的每人次單價分別為36.9萬日圓、32.6萬日圓、25.2萬日圓，這可能兼而反映宏觀上通貨膨脹與微觀上旅客更傾向買長線旅遊商品。

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Japan's Tourism Agency recently released a preliminary report on travel revenue for April 2024 from 43 major domestic travel agencies. At first glance, group tours expanded rapidly this month, with a growth rate of 215%. Considering the Golden Week in May as a precursor to the peak summer season, and that group tour payments are generally made in advance in April, Haize Capital summarizes the data to provide insights into the potential resurgence of group tours in Japan.

1. Outbound travel is rapidly recovering. According to April data, domestic travel transactions by Japanese travel agencies remained stable at 158.2 billion yen, with a slight YoY increase of 0.1%; however, outbound travel has rapidly rebounded to 84.2 billion yen, a 54% increase from 2023. It's important to note that, despite significant growth from 2023, outbound travel transactions have only reached 51% of the 2019 figures, with overall transactions recovering to 64% of 2019 levels.

2. In April, group tours in outbound travel accounted for 2.4 billion yen, marking a 215% YoY increase; however, this is only 24% of the 2019 figures, indicating that the recovery of group tour products is much slower compared to individual travel.

3. Looking at the share of group tours in outbound travel, it was 20% in the same period of 2019, dropped to 4% in 2023, and recovered to 10% by April 2024. From this perspective, it's more accurate to say that the share has returned to a reasonable post-pandemic level of 10% rather than surged.

4. Regarding the number of travelers, the recovery of group tour participants through travel agencies is slower than the recovery in transaction volume. Reflected in the average price per traveler, the per-person costs in 2024, 2023, and 2019 were 369,000 yen, 326,000 yen, and 252,000 yen, respectively. This may reflect both macro-level inflation and a micro-level trend of travelers preferring longer travel packages. 

標籤 Label： JTA  Japan  Outbound  Group Tour