滴滴到底何時上市?
When will Didi go public or not?

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

從歷史角度，滴滴創下不少前所未有的特殊地位。 滴滴曾於2021年6月於美國IPO，是阿里巴巴在美國紐交所IPO以來的最大規模IPO，首日收盤達680億美元；而在中國當局的網路安全審查之後，不到一年，滴滴完成了退市程序。近期媒體再刊登滴滴告知投資人將在2025年IPO的報導，公司隨後不意外的在略晚的聲明中表示 “關於IPO，目前還沒有時間表”；有些人可能會注意到，去年也有類似新聞談到滴滴會在今(2024)年IPO。其實，滴滴的董事會想再次IPO應該是無庸置疑的，問題是它自己無法決定。這則新聞與其用來探究真實發生的可能性，倒不如拿來印證今年大概率不能上市的結果。

這次滴滴對潛在投資人說了什麼？眾所周知的，當然不外乎強調財務復甦、邁向可持續增長和改進合規性，並說明在中國與境外市場的強大地位，以展示公司的穩定性和增長潛力。其中，海擇資本倒是認為可以觀察滴滴海外擴展的現況，謹簡析如下：

1. 滴滴的國際事業主要在拉丁美洲市場，從規模看，2023年已總計完成超過26.6億次乘車訂單，YoY增長36%，已算是有影響力的國際化玩家。

2. 從訂單數看，2022Q1、2023Q1、2024Q1分別為4.5億次、5.5億次、7.9億次，今年Q1的YoY增速達44%，超過去年同期。

3. 從訂單交易額(不刨除任何激勵與補貼)看，2022Q1、2023Q1、2024Q1分別為105億人民幣、138億人民幣、208億人民幣，今年Q1的YoY增速51%，超過去年同期。

4. 從訂單收入(刨除激勵、補貼、營業稅後的平台收入)，2022Q1、2023Q1、2024Q1分別為105億人民幣、12億人民幣、23億人民幣，今年Q1的YoY增速29%，相對於訂單數與交易額，增速較低,顯示仍在補貼戰中。

5.  國際事業涵蓋網約車與食品配送，更像Uber(NYSE: UBER)。

最後，從財務看，雖然Q1淨損仍有10.8億人民幣，不過從Adjusted EBITA看，歷經三年，已從虧損95.7億人民幣(2022Q1)、虧損5.7億人民幣(2023Q1)，到今年盈利9.2億人民幣，看起來還算是走Uber路線，大者恆大的。

-------

From a historical perspective, Didi has achieved several unprecedented milestones. Didi went public in the U.S. in June 2021, marking the largest IPO since Alibaba's on the NYSE, closing at $68 billion on the first day. However, less than a year later, following cybersecurity reviews by Chinese authorities, Didi completed its delisting process. Recently, reports resurfaced about Didi informing investors of a planned 2025 IPO, to which the company later predictably stated, "There is no timetable for the IPO." Some may recall similar news last year about a potential 2024 IPO. It seems undeniable that Didi's board wants to go public again; the real issue is that the company itself cannot decide. Rather than speculating on the likelihood of these events, this news more likely confirms that an IPO this year is improbable.

What has Didi recently communicated to potential investors? It is well known that the emphasis was on financial recovery, sustainable growth, and improved compliance, highlighting its strong position in China and abroad to demonstrate the company's stability and growth potential. Haize Capital suggests observing Didi's international expansion, specifically:

1. Didi's international operations are primarily in Latin America. In 2023, it completed over 2.66 billion ride orders, a 36% YoY increase, establishing itself as a significant player internationally.

2. Looking at order numbers, Q1 in 2022, 2023, and 2024 recorded 450 million, 550 million, and 790 million rides respectively. The 44% YoY growth in Q1 this year exceeded the same period last year.

3. In terms of GMV (without deducting any incentives or subsidies), Q1 in 2022, 2023, and 2024 saw 10.5 billion RMB, 13.8 billion RMB, and 20.8 billion RMB respectively, with this year's Q1 YoY growth rate at 51%, surpassing last year's.

4. Regarding revenue (after deducting incentives, subsidies, and sales tax), Q1 figures for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 10.5 billion RMB, 1.2 billion RMB, and 2.3 billion RMB, respectively. This year's Q1 saw a 29% YoY increase, a slower growth rate compared to order numbers and transaction amounts, indicating ongoing subsidy battles.

5. Didi's international operations include ride-hailing and food delivery, similar to Uber (NYSE: UBER).

Finally, financially, although there was a net loss of 1.08 billion RMB in Q1, looking at adjusted EBITA, after three years, it has moved from a loss of 9.57 billion RMB (Q1 2022) and 570 million RMB (Q1 2023) to a profit of 920 million RMB this year, following a trajectory similar to Uber's, where larger players tend to dominate. 

標籤 Label： Didi Chuxing  Ride-hailing  IPO  De-list  UBER