2023年中國遊客國際旅遊支出仍處高點
China overtook the US as the biggest spender on international travel in 2023

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

涵蓋五一連假的五月已過，七月暑假即將來臨，做為疫情前全球最大客源輸出國中國的出境遊恢復現況眾所注目，從第三方數據可觀察出部分中國出境旅遊的新常態，海擇資本在此說明如下：

1. 國內旅遊增長仍高：根據中國文化和旅遊部官方數據，在五天的五一假期期間，國內旅遊人數再創歷史新高達2.95億人次，較2019年增長超過20%；在出境旅遊部分，雖然官方沒有給到同口徑可比對的出境遊人次，不過依照國際航空數據商Cirium數據，今年5月中國出入境的國際航班較2019年同期減少了30%，這也反映了中國國內旅遊人次在高於2019年的同時，出境旅遊離2019年的門檻仍有不小差距，這也與多國在後疫情開放後，出境旅遊排擠了國內旅遊成長不同。

2. 出境旅遊相對2023年快速好轉：依照Cirium數據，即便拿中國的主要航空公司在2023年Q3旺季的可用座位數(ASM, Available Seat Miles)與2019年對比，當時仍較2019年同期低50%至55%之間；也就是說，今年出境相對2023來看，已有大幅好轉。

3. 中國遊客國際旅遊支出仍處高點：根據聯合國旅遊局(UN Tourism)數據，即便中國出境遊客數仍大幅低於2019年，2023年中國遊客的支出比2019年減少了24%，但支出額1,965億仍處於世界新高。依去年數據看，2023年全球前十大國際旅遊支出國分別為中國、美國(1,500億美元 )、德國(1,120億美元)、英國(1,100億美元)、法國(490億美元)、加拿大、義大利、印度、俄羅斯聯邦和韓國 。

4. 中國出境旅遊將建立新常態：若我們推估今年暑期中國遊客出境遊較2019年同期少30%，中國遊客對各目的地的出行人次也不是按2019年的70%分布，目的地將出現新常態。其中日本因為日圓貶值，出行的中國遊客數激增；其他地區的恢復與辦理旅遊簽證的複雜度有關，而複雜度又與地緣政治相關，新加坡、馬來西亞、泰國、澳洲、阿拉伯聯合大公國、卡達和沙烏地阿拉伯，恢復速度會優於其他區域。美國則是反例，恢復2019年出行人次的時間難以估算。

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With May, covering the Labor Day holiday, behind us and the summer break approaching in July, attention is focused on the recovery of outbound travel from China, previously the world’s largest source of international tourists pre-pandemic. Haize Capital outlines some emerging trends in Chinese outbound travel based on third-party data as follows:

1. Domestic travel continues to grow significantly: According to official data from China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the number of domestic tourists during the five-day Labor Day holiday reached a record high of 295 million, up more than 20% from 2019. For outbound travel, while there are no comparable official figures, data from the international aviation data provider Cirium shows that international flights to and from China in May were down 30% compared to the same period in 2019. This indicates that while domestic travel in China exceeds 2019 levels, outbound travel still significantly lags behind the pre-pandemic levels, differing from many countries where post-pandemic reopening has led to outbound travel cutting into domestic travel growth.

2. Rapid improvement in outbound travel from 2023: According to Cirium data, even comparing the Available Seat Miles (ASM) of China's major airlines in the peak season of Q3 2023 to 2019, it was still 50% to 55% lower than the same period in 2019. This indicates a significant improvement in outbound travel this year compared to 2023.

3. Chinese tourists' international travel spending remains high: Despite the number of Chinese outbound tourists being significantly lower than in 2019, their spending in 2023 was 24% less than in 2019, but the total expenditure of $196.5 billion still set a global record. According to last year's data, the top ten countries for international travel spending in 2023 were China, the USA ($150 billion), Germany ($112 billion), the UK ($110 billion), France ($49 billion), followed by Canada, Italy, India, the Russian Federation, and South Korea. 

4. New norm for Chinese outbound travel: If we estimate that this summer's Chinese outbound travel will be 30% less than in the same period of 2019, the distribution of Chinese tourists to various destinations will not simply align with 70% of 2019 levels, leading to a new normal in destination trends. For instance, Japan has seen a surge in Chinese tourists due to the depreciation of the yen. Recovery in other regions relates to the complexity of obtaining travel visas, which in turn is influenced by geopolitical factors. Countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Australia, the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are recovering faster than others. The USA is an exception, with recovery to 2019 travel levels being difficult to predict.

標籤 Label： Travel  Domestic  Outbound  China  Consuming