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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
團隊遊的文藝復興時期到了嗎？
在旅行社中，團隊遊與自由行一直是兩種不同的專業，前者的產品設計、獲客方式、佣金來源與後者相差甚多。也因此，牽涉到不同的先期投入，各國團隊遊產品銷售額在整體的佔比，一直是被行業留意的重點。近期Phocuswright的一篇"2023年美國消費者旅行報告(U.S. Consumer Travel Report 2023)"，談到了以美國地區的研究樣本來看，2023年願意進行團隊遊的意願比前一年增加了57%。這數據可以理解為從美國開始出現了團隊遊的文藝復興，未來趨勢將隨之擴散嗎？
海擇資本先給自己版本的答案－"No"。
這篇報告以美國的休閒旅行者為樣本，按年齡組別，劃分出旅行趨勢和偏好。之所以團隊旅遊的意願在一年間出現了57%的增速，是基於2022年研究時，僅7%的受訪者規劃與朋友/家人一起旅行，而2023年為11%。我們認為這有兩個問題，首先，這個數據反映的應該是後疫情期"社交距離"不再被重視的議題，並非逆轉了從2010年風起雲湧的自由行趨勢。
其次，報告所談到"團隊遊"的定義與行業日常的理解有異。我們理解研究報告說的團隊遊指的是"行為"，這與旅行社傳統上將團隊遊視為"產品"，在統計無法對比。具體來看，研究報告中只要兩個人以上出行(非獨自出行)就被歸類為團隊遊，但他們的購買決策可能多數仍引導到散裝的元件式商品；而旅行社所說的"團體遊"，傳統上涉及大量人力——設計線路、對接供應商、組成產品、安排導遊/領隊、追蹤應收帳款與應付付款作；這類團隊遊，一般在整體旅遊交易額佔比的10%到35%間，佔比大小的差異在於產品的設計/創意能力以及基本盤(價格敏感類產品、高端產品、家庭產品)。
不過，如果我們延續報告的思路，只是把非獨自出行就歸類為團隊遊，確實在FIT中原本就有很大的一塊團隊遊，而這一塊是能通過AI等技術創新獲取客戶的。目前看到的幾個例子如下：
1. Airbnb：非標住宿平台Airbnb(NASDAQ: ABNB)在5月的APP更新中說明，在平台上的出行者有80%是團體旅行(在這個定義中兩人以上就算團體)，因此加入了團體規劃功能，功能包括共享願望清單、與房東進行群聊以及旅行邀請。
2. Expedia：Expedia(NASDAQ: EXPE)集團近期也推出了新的AI旅行助理Romie，用戶可以將Romie拉進WhatsApp群組群聊，並能協助群組成員總結群聊。
3. AI旅遊創業公司：此前我們談過一間由12個聯合創始人組成的AI旅遊規劃公司Mindtrip，該公司在行程編輯上設計了類似Word的追蹤修訂功能，用戶能邀請共同旅行者進行協作編輯，每次更改都會以通知提醒其他團體成員。
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Is the Renaissance of Group Tours Here?
In the travel industry, group tours and independent travel have always been distinct specialties, differing greatly in product design, customer acquisition, and commission sources. As a result, the proportion of sales for group tour products has always been a key focus. A recent Phocuswright report, "U.S. Consumer Travel Report 2023," highlights that in the U.S., the willingness to participate in group tours increased by 57% in 2023 compared to the previous year. Could this signal a renaissance of group tours starting in the U.S. and spreading globally?
Haize Capital's answer is "No."
This report, based on U.S. leisure travelers, analyzes travel trends and preferences by age group. The 57% increase in willingness to join group tours over the past year is based on the fact that in 2022, only 7% of respondents planned to travel with friends/family, while in 2023, it was 11%. We believe this reflects the reduced emphasis on "social distancing" post-pandemic rather than a reversal of the independent travel trend that has been growing since 2010.
Furthermore, the report's definition of "group tours" differs from the industry's usual understanding. The report considers any travel with two or more people (not solo travel) as group travel, but their purchasing decisions often still lean towards individually packaged components. In contrast, traditional group tours involve extensive coordination—designing itineraries, liaising with suppliers, creating products, arranging guides/tour leaders, and managing receivables/payables. These traditional group tours typically account for 10% to 35% of total travel transactions, varying based on product design/creativity and the market segment (price-sensitive products, high-end products, family products).
However, if we follow the report's logic and categorize any travel with more than one person as a group tour, there is indeed a significant portion of group travel within FIT (Free Independent Travel). This segment can be effectively reached through AI and other technological innovations. Here are a few examples:
1. Airbnb: In its May app update, Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) noted that 80% of its travelers are group travelers (defined as two or more people). It introduced group planning features, including shared wish lists, group chats with hosts, and travel invitations.
2. Expedia: Expedia Group (NASDAQ: EXPE) recently launched a new AI travel assistant named Romie. Users can add Romie to WhatsApp group chats to help summarize the group’s discussions.
3. AI Travel Startups: We previously discussed an AI travel planning company called Mindtrip, founded by 12 co-founders. Mindtrip offers a Word-like collaborative editing feature for itinerary planning, allowing users to invite travel companions to edit together, with notifications for each change to keep group members updated.
標籤 Label： Travel Planning Generative AI ABNB EXPE Mindtrip