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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
相對於無人自動駕駛汽車，飛行汽車(eVTOL. 或稱Flying Taxi)這種租賃車的商用開發進程較為緩慢。即便如此，2024年法國巴黎奧運與2025年大阪世博會，也為其面世訂下了時間上的里程碑。上次談過了無人自動駕駛汽車的進程，這次海擇資本來談談亞洲飛行汽車的推動近況，看起來，最快實現商用化的地區可能是中國、日本和新加坡。
此前我們也在海擇觀點談過，原訂在法國巴黎奧運開始運營的eVTOL，在巴黎市議會因為環保問題頻頻受阻。法國人畢竟還是要面子的，在巴黎奧運開始(2024年7月26日)的前16天，於7月10日，法國官方終於通過了在巴黎奧運期間運營飛行汽車及授權的相關法規。根據法規，由巴黎機場集團(ADP, Aéroports de Paris)負責該項目的運作，並給予諸多規範，比如，只有德國飛機製造商Volocopter可以在巴黎奧運會期間運營飛行汽車、飛行汽車只能在早上8點到下午5點之間飛行、每小時只能有兩次航班、運營期限僅至2024年12月31日，且運營結束後須進行成本效益分析，再討論是否能正式商用化。
巴黎奧運之後的下個里程碑，是2025年4月的大阪世博會。負責營運飛行汽車事業的SkyDrive，除了與JR九州簽訂了合作協議，將以"飛行汽車"帶動九州的區域振興外，目前確定將以一款名為SD-03的飛行汽車，在大阪世博會上推出日本首次的商用運營，會在世博會周邊的火車站和商業設施規劃前往世博會的路線，目前已在東京和大阪等地進行了多次飛行測試。
此外，我們並列舉亞洲主要國家的相關進展如下：
1. 億航智能(NASDAQ: EH)：中國公司，其飛行汽車已在全球多個城市進行試飛，其EH216-S飛行汽車已經獲得了中國民航總局(CAAC)頒發的生產認證，預計在2025年之前在中國廣州、深圳和珠海啟動商用運營。
2. 小鵬汽車(NYSE: XPEV)：中國公司，旗下的子公司小鵬匯天(HT Aero)負責研發飛行汽車，已在中國的廣州、深圳和上海等城市進行了飛行汽車的試飛測試，具體商用時間未定。
3. 現代汽車(KRX: 005380)：韓國公司，其子公司Supernal負責eVTOL領域的研究和開發，與Uber合作開發出概念機S-A2，能載送5名人員，具體測試數據未公告，計畫在2028年前啟動商用運營。
4. 韓國航空航太研究院(KARI)：韓國官方機構，KARI研發eVTOL相關技術，在首爾和仁川等地進行了多次飛行器的測試飛行，商用需技術轉移，目前尚無進度。
5. Volocopter：德國公司，與英國公司Skyports共同與新加坡政府合作，在新加坡的市中心和樟宜機場附近進行試飛測試，具體商用時間未定。
6. 斯坦航空(NSE: HAL)：印度公司，為印度政府擁有的軍民兩用航太及國防公司，其eVTOL相關技術研發，在班加羅爾、孟買和新德里進行測試和驗證，具體商用時間未定。
整體來看，我們認為亞洲飛行汽車最快實現商用化的地區可能是中國、日本和新加坡，億航有自有技術，SkyDrive與美國的Joby Aviation(NYSE: JOBY)都得到了豐田的技術支援，目前兩者之間沒有已知的技術互通或資本投資；新加坡未有自己的技術新創公司，商化使用的以德國Volocopter技術為主，較為成熟。
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Compared to autonomous driving cars, the commercial development of flying cars (eVTOL has been slower. However, the 2024 Paris Olympics and the 2025 Osaka Expo set significant milestones for their debut. Previously, we discussed the progress of autonomous cars; this time, Haize Capital will discuss the recent advancements in flying cars in Asia, with China, Japan, and Singapore being the likely regions to achieve commercialization first.
We previously mentioned in Haize Comment that the planned eVTOL operations for the Paris Olympics faced environmental obstacles from the Paris City Council. However, on July 10, 2024, 16 days before the start of the Paris Olympics (July 26, 2024), the French government approved regulations for flying car operations during the event. According to the regulations, the project will be managed by Aéroports de Paris (ADP) and includes several stipulations: only German manufacturer Volocopter can operate during the Olympics, flights are limited to between 8 AM and 5 PM, with a maximum of two flights per hour, and operations will end on December 31, 2024. A cost-benefit analysis will follow to decide on future commercialization.
The next milestone after the Paris Olympics is the Osaka Expo in April 2025. SkyDrive, responsible for operating flying cars, has partnered with JR Kyushu to promote regional revitalization in Kyushu through "flying cars." SkyDrive's SD-03 model will mark Japan's first commercial operation of flying cars at the Osaka Expo, with routes planned from nearby train stations and commercial facilities to the Expo site. Multiple test flights have already been conducted in Tokyo and Osaka.
Additionally, here are the key developments in major Asian countries:
1. EHang (NASDAQ: EH): A Chinese company with its EH216-S flying car, which has conducted test flights in multiple cities worldwide and received production certification from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC). Commercial operations are expected to start in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai by 2025.
2. XPeng Motors (NYSE: XPEV): A Chinese company whose subsidiary HT Aero is developing flying cars. They have conducted test flights in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. The commercial launch date is yet to be determined.
3. Hyundai Motor (KRX: 005380): A South Korean company, with its subsidiary Supernal focusing on eVTOL research and development. They have collaborated with Uber to develop the S-A2 concept, capable of carrying five people. Specific test data is not disclosed, and commercial operations are planned by 2028.
4. Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI): A South Korean government agency developing eVTOL technologies. Multiple test flights have been conducted in Seoul and Incheon. Commercialization requires technology transfer and is currently not progressing.
5. Volocopter: A German company, in partnership with UK-based Skyports and the Singapore government, has conducted test flights in downtown Singapore and near Changi Airport. The commercial launch date is yet to be determined.
6. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (NSE: HAL): An Indian company, owned by the government, developing eVTOL technologies. Testing and validation are being conducted in Bangalore, Mumbai, and New Delhi. The commercial launch date is yet to be determined.
Overall, we believe the regions in Asia most likely to commercialize flying cars first are China, Japan, and Singapore. EHang has proprietary technology, while SkyDrive and Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) both receive technical support from Toyota, though there is no known technical collaboration or capital investment between them. Singapore relies on the mature technology of Germany's Volocopter for commercialization, as it lacks its own tech startups in this field.
標籤 Label： eVTOL Volocopter SkyDrive EHang XPeng Hyundai