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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
美國準共和黨總統候選人川普近期於賓州遭逢槍擊刺殺，細節尚待調查，不過從槍手的年齡、國籍、住址與生平來看，看起來不像是來自外國的攻擊，更像是兩黨分歧過程中不理性的展現。
這不禁讓人想起全球最大的對沖基金之一"橋水(Bridgewater Associates)"的創始人Ray Dalio，幾周前曾發表一篇文章"選擇一方並為之戰鬥、低頭或逃跑(Pick A Side And Fight For It, Keep Your Head Down, Or Flee)"，他在內文認為，美國民主黨與共和黨往巨大且不可調和的分歧演變(the differences are becoming too irreconcilable)，這些分歧導致雙方正不惜一切代價爭取總統大選的勝利，且任何一方勝選都可能導致另一方拒絕接受選舉結果，而這有超過50%的概率在選後(2025年)引導美國跨入(未必是暴力衝突)內戰。他也談到，雖然現在人們普遍認為川普與共和黨人是更激進的極端主義者，而民主黨人是溫和派，但根據歷史和他所看到的現況，雙方都有可能比人們普遍認為的更極端(I think it's more likely that both sides will be more extreme than is commonly believed)。這篇文章被美國時代雜誌將標題改為"即將到來的大衝突(The Coming Great Conflict)"後刊出。
Dalio所認定導致重大內部衝突的典型先行指標包括：1) 國或州或城市人民的財務狀況不佳，涵蓋巨額債務和非債務義務，2) 該實體內部存在巨大的收入、財富和價值觀落差，以及3) 嚴重的負面經濟衝擊。而特別的是，美國人均收入和財富水平最高的州和城市，同時也是負債最多、貧富差距最大的州和城市，例如舊金山、芝加哥和紐約等城市，以及康乃狄克州、伊利諾州、麻薩諸塞州、紐約州和紐澤西州等地。理論上面對這些指標應該以增加賦稅，提高負債評級因應，但事實上不可能做到，因為貧困人群可供削減的收入很少，而富人通常會選擇離開，所以無解。Dalio談的是美國發生某種形式的內戰或革命的風險，但按照這個標準，在後疫情期與俄烏戰爭以來，有很多國家都快速的符合這些指標。
今天海擇資本為什麼談這個議題？只是覺得，無論是國內、國際、單邊、多邊、俄烏、以巴，世界正往更令人不安的方向、甚至是世界大戰行進，海擇資本作為旅遊行業的精品投行，期望也會致力於以旅遊交流與投融資合作，帶動可持續旅遊，讓多邊國家能一定程度理解和欣賞彼此的差異，從而減少偏見和誤解，既創造就業機會，也改善生活水平，從而促進穩定。
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Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was recently shot in Pennsylvania. Details are still under investigation, but based on the shooter's age, nationality, address, and background, it appears to be a domestic incident rather than a foreign attack, reflecting irrational partisan divisions.
This incident echoes sentiments expressed by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds. In his recent article, "Pick A Side And Fight For It, Keep Your Head Down, Or Flee," Dalio noted that the differences between the Democratic and Republican parties are becoming irreconcilable. He warned that these divisions could lead to a scenario where either side might refuse to accept the election results, with over a 50% chance of leading to a civil conflict post-2025. He also suggested that both parties might be more extreme than commonly believed. The article, titled "The Coming Great Conflict," was published by Time magazine.
Dalio identified key indicators leading to major internal conflicts: 1) poor financial conditions of states or cities, including high debt and non-debt obligations; 2) significant income, wealth, and value disparities; and 3) severe negative economic shocks. Interestingly, the states and cities with the highest per capita income and wealth, such as San Francisco, Chicago, and New York, as well as Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey, also have the most debt and the greatest income inequality. In theory, addressing these indicators would require raising taxes and improving debt ratings, but this is impractical as the poor have little income to tax and the wealthy often leave. Dalio discusses the risk of some form of civil war or revolution in the U.S., but by these standards, many countries have quickly met these indicators in the post-pandemic period and since the Russia-Ukraine war.
Why is Haize Capital discussing this topic today? We believe that, whether domestic or international, unilateral or multilateral, the world is heading towards more instability and potential conflict, even global war. As a boutique investment bank in the travel industry, Haize Capital aims to promote sustainable tourism through travel exchanges and investment cooperation. We hope to foster understanding and appreciation of differences among nations, reduce prejudice and misunderstandings, create jobs, improve living standards, and ultimately promote stability.
標籤 Label： Assassination Conflict Bridgewater Travel Investment