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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
近期中國互聯網公司百度集團(NASDAQ: BIDU)市值陡然驟升，旗下的無人自動駕駛出行服務平台"蘿蔔快跑(Apollo Go Robotaxi)"成為深受重視的亮點。中日韓美的無人自動駕駛(計程車, Taxi)出行服務，目前各自做到什麼規模，海擇資本節選部分資料於下做為簡評。
根據官方公告，蘿蔔快跑已經於中國11個城市開放載人運營測試服務，並已在北京、武漢、重慶、深圳、上海五個城市開展全無人自動駕駛出行服務測試，亦即是無需人類干預，但依賴地圖在限定範圍工作的L4自動駕駛。用戶能通過蘿蔔快跑的App/小程式、百度地圖、百度APP等平台呼叫無人自動駕駛車輛，車輛會自行開到在使用者地址，並載送到目的地。百度財報會議也記錄，蘿蔔快跑截至2024Q1，累計服務訂單量超600萬次，總里程超1億公里，並以每天超10萬公里的速度成長；其中武漢是蘿蔔快跑的主要指標區域，目前已投放400輛以上無人駕駛汽車，預估年底可能達1,000輛。
美日韓的自動駕駛現況則對比於下：
·美國的L4自動駕駛測試現況
1. Waymo：測試地點在加州舊金山、洛杉磯和亞利桑那州鳳凰城等地區，運營約600輛無人駕駛汽車，並在複雜的城市環境中進行數百萬次行程，累計超過2,000萬英里(1英里約1.6公里)的總里程(2024)。
2. Cruise：測試地點在加州舊金山、亞利桑那州鳳凰城、德州休斯敦和達拉斯等，高峰期約運營950輛自動駕駛車輛，累計超過500萬英里的總里程，2023年10月因安全問題暫停運營。
3. Pony.ai：測試地點在加州和中國(廣州、北京、上海和深圳)，運營約200輛Toyota和Lexus品牌的無人計程車，累計超過1,000萬公里的總里程。
·日本的L4自動駕駛測試現況
1. 日本政府的福井縣永平寺町"RoAD to L4"項目：測試地點在福井縣永平寺町，運營4輛7座電動車，車輛在指定還境下運行，如使用電磁引導線和在良好天氣下行駛，數據未明。
2. TIER IV：TIER IV預計(2024年)11月在台場的新建場館周圍1.5平方公里內提供免費的自動駕駛交通服務，目前具體測試還境與參與車輛總數未明。
·韓國的L4自動駕駛測試現況
1. RideFlux：目前在韓國濟州島進行測試，使用改裝的現代汽車，運營路線為5公里，但目前屬於免費，尚未商化。
2. 韓國政府：韓國將在指定測試區域(具體地點待定)測試，目前有約100輛自動駕駛車輛獲得了臨時運行許可，其他數據未明。
目前可以理解為，中國的無人車自動駕駛商用服務已經衝在前線，並在技術突破後，開始面對政治與經濟問題。從測試車輛總數與運營里程數來說，中國的百度、美國的Waymo、中美合資的Pony.ai(小馬智行)都算全球相對領先的無人車自動駕駛梯隊，其中百度累積的數據更龐大完整。財務上，雖有說法認為百度將在2024年底在武漢損益兩平，2025年全事業部盈利，但由於一次性成本居於劣勢，較傳統油車與電動車都高，尚難斷定。領先梯隊後續還會遇到各類的政治經濟問題，比如當地計程車業者與網約車的抗爭、自動駕駛是否衝擊失業人口的問題；過往各個國家在網約車導入期，網約車與傳統計程車業者已有過激戰，自動駕駛導入期可能會再引發一波抗爭。
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Recently, the market value of Chinese internet company Baidu Group (NASDAQ: BIDU) has surged, with its autonomous driving service platform "Apollo Go Robotaxi" becoming a significant highlight. Haize Capital provides a brief overview of the current scale of autonomous taxi services in China, Japan, Korea, and the U.S.
According to official announcements, Apollo Go is operating in 11 Chinese cities, offering passenger services. It has launched full autonomous driving tests in Beijing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai, featuring Level 4 autonomous vehicles that operate without human intervention within mapped areas. Users can summon these vehicles via the Apollo Go app/Mini Program, Baidu Maps, or the Baidu app, and the vehicle will autonomously arrive and transport them to their destination. Baidu's financial report notes that as of Q1 2024, Apollo Go has completed over 6 million orders, covering a total distance of over 100 million kilometers, growing at a rate of over 100,000 kilometers per day. Wuhan is a key area, with over 400 autonomous vehicles deployed and an expected increase to 1,000 by the end of the year.
The current state of autonomous driving in the U.S., Japan, and South Korea is as follows:
U.S. L4 Autonomous Driving Testing:
1. Waymo: Testing in San Francisco and Los Angeles, California, and Phoenix, Arizona, with about 600 autonomous vehicles. It has completed millions of trips in complex urban environments, accumulating over 20 million miles (approximately 32 million kilometers) as of 2024.
2. Cruise: Testing in San Francisco, Phoenix, Houston, and Dallas, operating around 950 autonomous vehicles at peak, with over 5 million miles accumulated. Operations were paused in October 2023 due to safety concerns.
3. Pony.ai: Testing in California and China (Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen), operating about 200 autonomous taxis (Toyota and Lexus), with over 10 million kilometers accumulated.
Japan L4 Autonomous Driving Testing:
1. RoAD to L4" Project in Eiheiji Town, Fukui Prefecture: Operates 4 seven-seater electric vehicles using electromagnetic guidance and good weather conditions. Specific data is not available.
2. TIER IV: Plans to offer free autonomous driving services within a 1.5 square kilometer area around a new venue in Odaiba starting November 2024. Specific testing conditions and vehicle count are not disclosed.
South Korea L4 Autonomous Driving Testing:
1. RideFlux: Testing on Jeju Island using modified Hyundai vehicles over a 5-kilometer route. Currently free and not yet commercialized.
2. South Korean Government: Testing in designated areas (locations TBD) with about 100 autonomous vehicles having temporary operation permits. Further data is not available.
Currently, it can be understood that China is leading in the commercial deployment of autonomous driving services, facing political and economic challenges following technological breakthroughs. In terms of test vehicle numbers and operational mileage, China's Baidu, America's Waymo, and the US-China joint venture Pony.ai are at the forefront globally, with Baidu accumulating the most comprehensive data. Financially, there are claims that Baidu will break even in Wuhan by the end of 2024 and turn a profit in 2025. However, due to high one-time costs, surpassing those of traditional and electric vehicles, this remains uncertain. The leading companies will continue to face political and economic issues, such as conflicts with local taxi operators, the impact on employment, and potential protests similar to those during the introduction of ride-hailing services.
標籤 Label： Autonomous Commercialization NASDAQ: BIDU Apollo Go Robotaxi Waymo Pony.ai