韓國出境團隊遊恢復季節性因素
Seasonal Factors in the Recovery of Outbound Group Tours from Korea

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

近期韓國主要旅行社HanaTour(KRX: 039130)和Modetour(KRX: 080160)分別公告6月的團隊遊輸送人次。海擇資本比對上半年數據，發現對韓國主要旅遊社的出境遊領域來說，後疫情的報復性旅遊時期已過，已恢復季節性因素；而從出行的目的地來看，除了日本仍維持首要目的地，前往中國旅遊的人數持續增長，是最為突出的目的地。海擇資本簡述出境旅遊相關數據如下：

1. 團隊遊恢復淡旺季影響：兩社上半年的輸送人次已恢復淡旺季影響，輸送人次均以1月為峰值，直到6月都呈現穩定下降曲線。

2. 年增速仍為兩位數：從輸送人次的年增率來看，雖然仍有兩位數的增速，但從1月有接近翻倍的增長，到6月已降低到30%左右，下降迅速。

3. 目的地以中國成長較高：從地區來看，中國作為目的地的成長最為突出。在HanaTour的團隊遊出行人次中，前往中國旅遊的人數自去年12月起連續7個月增長；ModeTour的中國地區佔比也自1月以來穩步上升，6月佔所有地區的21.5%。至於Q1佔比超過50%的東南亞地區，佔比則逐漸下降，Q2分別達兩家公司的36.9%和45.5%。

4. 與2019年相比，兩家公司6月的跟團遊輸送人次數，分別為2019年同期的61.0%和53.5%，海擇資本評估，團隊遊要恢復2019年同期的輸送人次，可能還需要3年或更長的時間。

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Recently, major South Korean travel agencies HanaTour (KRX: 039130) and Modetour (KRX: 080160) announced their June group tour passenger numbers. Haize Capital compared data from the first half of the year and found that the post-pandemic revenge travel phase for these key travel agencies is over, and seasonality has resumed. In terms of destinations, Japan remains the top choice, but the most notable increase is seen in trips to China. Haize  Capital provided the following summary of outbound travel data:

1. Seasonal fluctuations in group tours have resumed: Both agencies saw peak travel in January, with a steady decline in passenger numbers through June, indicating a return to seasonal impacts.

2. Annual growth rate remains in the double digits: Although growth has slowed from nearly doubling in January to about 30% in June, it still remains at a significant double-digit pace.

3. China shows the highest growth as a destination: Regionally, China has stood out in growth. HanaTour has seen a continuous seven-month increase in travelers to China since last December; Modetour's share of trips to China has steadily increased since January, reaching 21.5% of all destinations in June. However, Southeast Asia, which accounted for over 50% in Q1, has seen a gradual decline, with Q2 shares at 36.9% and 45.5% for the two companies respectively.

4. Compared to June 2019, the group tour passenger numbers for both companies were 61.0% and 53.5% of the same period in 2019, respectively. Haize Capital estimates that it may take another three years or longer for group tours to return to their 2019 passenger numbers. 

標籤 Label： Outbound  Group Tour  Destination  KRX: 039130  KRX: 080160