登錄
選單
登錄
海擇短評 Haize Comment：
麥肯錫發過很多高端旅遊研究報告，2024年版已在近期發布，與過往一致的部分我們就不再重複，比如高端旅行者對五星連鎖飯店的想法、對獨特與個人化服務的期待、對稀缺與新奇產品的好奇等等。
今天，我們想從麥肯錫對高端旅行者的定義，延伸說說我們對"新消費觀"的一些想法。首先，這次麥肯錫總共調查了5,061個樣本；那麼，哪裡找來那麼多富豪？原來，這次麥肯錫把資產在10萬美金以上的人都定義為高端旅遊的消費者了。麥肯錫這次的邏輯不是直接用高淨值人群來定義高端旅遊的消費者，而是用購買高端旅遊產品來定義高端旅遊的消費者，然後再來看這些消費者的資產規模；它認為只要願意為一夜住宿消費超過500美金的旅行者，都算是高端旅遊的潛在消費者，那樣本群自然暴增。畢竟500美金一夜的住宿費並不算很離譜，所以，不僅你我都算是高端旅遊的消費者，只要盡社會工作了幾年，即便是國家年人均收入只在千美元量級的帶薪階級，也都可以是高端旅遊的消費者。
我們當然相信，麥肯錫絕對不是為了把樣本數做大才這麼定義的。事實上麥肯錫也有解釋它的理由，根據它的統計，現在35%的豪華旅遊市場消費，是由淨資產在10萬美元到100萬美金之間的消費者交易的。這裡我們先不討論這數據的是否禁得起打磨，我們來談談這數據可能反映了什麼樣的現況與消費觀。
我們從另一個層面來談。疫情後，即便很多國家因為通膨而消費緊縮，但我們觀察到旅遊與餐飲的消費，變得比過去更剛性，這部分過去海擇觀點談過很多，不另贅述。我們認為，這樣的消費觀有一部分源於"世事無常"而"珍惜當下"。而且，世事還會更無常，Christopher Clark反思一次世界大戰的書"The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914"曾談到，當時所有人對一次世界大戰的開打沒有真實感，彷彿夢遊者(Sleepwalkers)；現在，北約與俄羅斯在烏克蘭的角力則又是一次夢遊般的航向三次世界大戰，究竟是我們在夢遊，還是有能力決定三次世界大戰是否開打的政治決定者在夢遊？
分辨誰在夢遊並不重要，疫情與戰爭讓人看到世事無常，那麼，還是好好的讓這個人生不是僅僅重複而單調吧。所以這些10萬美金到100萬美金資產的家庭，會願意去消費過去被定位為高端旅遊的產品，那可能是米其林餐廳、非洲動物大遷徙、南極/北極行...等等，甚至還會帶小孩一起去，以家庭為單位共同體驗人生的過程，這也反應在這些高端產品的消費年齡群，甚至還有20歲到30歲的年輕人(12%)。這樣的家庭可能會在特殊場合揮霍，但要求物有所值；他們願意為旅行的某個部分花大錢，但不會在旅行的每個部分都花大錢。這是海擇資本所推論的新消費觀走向。
最後補充一句，真正的有千萬美金資產的人，可能不希望被視為這次的樣本，而他們的消費模式，可能還跟這個報告有點差異。
-------
McKinsey has released many reports on luxury travel, and the 2024 edition is out. We won't repeat the usual findings about luxury travelers' preferences for five-star hotels, personalized services, and unique products.
Today, we want to discuss McKinsey's definition of luxury travelers and our thoughts on the "new consumption view." McKinsey surveyed 5,061 individuals, defining luxury travel consumers as those with assets over $100,000. Instead of using high net worth to define luxury travelers, McKinsey considers those who purchase luxury travel products as luxury consumers, focusing on their willingness to spend over $500 per night on accommodation. This approach broadens the sample size significantly, as $500 per night isn't extravagant. Therefore, many of us, even those with modest incomes, can be considered luxury travel consumers if we're willing to spend on premium experiences.
We certainly believe McKinsey's definition isn't just to increase the sample size. McKinsey explains that 35% of luxury travel spending comes from consumers with a net worth between $100,000 and $1 million. Without debating the accuracy of this data, let's consider what it reflects about current consumer trends.
From another perspective, post-pandemic, even with inflation causing tighter budgets in many countries, spending on travel and dining has become more robust. This aligns with the idea of "cherishing the present" due to the unpredictability of life. Christopher Clark's book "The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914" reflects on how people lacked a real sense of World War I’s onset, much like sleepwalkers. Similarly, NATO and Russia's tensions in Ukraine seem like a sleepwalk towards a potential World War III. Are we sleepwalking, or are the decision-makers capable of preventing such a war the ones sleepwalking?
Distinguishing who is sleepwalking is not important. The pandemic and wars highlight life's unpredictability. Instead of leading a monotonous life, many families with assets between $100,000 and $1 million are now willing to spend on what was once considered luxury travel. This includes Michelin restaurants, African safaris, and trips to Antarctica or the Arctic. These families often travel as a unit, even bringing children along, reflecting a desire to experience life fully. This trend includes younger consumers aged 20 to 30 (12%).
These families may splurge on special occasions but expect value for their money. They are willing to spend significantly on parts of a trip but not on every aspect. This represents a new consumer trend as identified by Haize Capital.
Lastly, individuals with assets in the tens of millions might not fit this study's sample, and their spending patterns could differ from those reflected in this report.
標籤 Label： Luxury-Travel McKinsey Leisure Hospitality Spending