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選單
登錄
海擇短評 Haize Comment：
近期全球OTA王者Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)公告2024Q2財報，在日股大崩盤的前一天，Booking先跌了9.2%；市值雖仍在千億美金(1,115億美金)之上，但創下2023年11月以來新低。那麼，Booking在這半年間到底變了什麼？趨勢定了嗎？海擇資本認為，最主要的挑戰在於間夜增速降低，讓Booking從成長股一步步的走向價值股，而這樣的趨勢難以逆轉。
間夜量的產出，是評估Booking增速最務實的方式。從此前電話會議對本(2024)年的間夜成長率預期來看，Q1、Q2、Q3的預期分別為4%-6%、4%-6%、3%-5%；而Q1與Q2實際結出的成長率分別為8.5%與7.1%。雖然與過去相同，財報時仍公告了高於預期的成長率，但與過去常出現遠高於預期的兩位數significant growth相比，現在的增速讓投資人食之無味了；再看Q3的預期還低於Q2，看來Q3有概率連7.1%都做不到，市場會失去信心也並不奇怪。
再從實務的增長面來看，也確實找不到可以能將其視為成長股的高增長來源：
1. 從地域角度看：具體看Q2間夜增長的分解圖，歐洲與美國成長中個位數，亞洲上漲略超10%，而世界其他地區上漲高個位數。看來亞洲兩位數的增速才把平均值拉升到7.1%，如果亞洲報復性旅遊結束得比預期早，消費更快恢復季節性因素，Booking的平均間夜增速更沒有恢復兩位數的理由。
2. 從產品角度來看：目前Booking除了住宿以外的兩大產品線，租車與機票，Q2的增速分別為10%與28%，銷售量分別為2,200萬(天)與1,100萬(張)，看起來都難以撐起第二增長曲線，只能說是交叉銷售或是拉新客的好工具。至於景點/門票/體驗/餐飲等當地玩樂產品，迄今在電話會議與財報中，都沒有被做為能拿來對股東交代的高增長或高產值產品。
不過，如果不將Booking視為成長股，從價值股的角度看，它仍可以成為價值股中比較穩健的投資標的，所以，也看得出公司在盈利上的努力。雖然Q2交易額跟收入YoY只增長6%與7%，但每股EPS增長了11%，這也是公司不斷降本增效、買回並註銷庫藏股的成果。即便間夜增速只有5%，一個季度的增量也有1,380萬間夜，這在任何商業談判中已經是夠強的籌碼了。
況且，就算下一個旅遊增速之王已經在牛棚暖身，那也不是現在能看到的Expedia(NASDAQ: EXPE)與Airbnb(NASDAQ: ABNB)，它們視為禁臠的美國客源，現在擴大消費泡沫的能力，也正逐步被創歷史新高的信用卡債擠破。
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Booking recently announced its 2024 Q2 earnings, with shares dropping 9.2% just before the major Japan market crash. Although its market cap remains above $100 billion ($111.5 billion), it hit its lowest point since November 2023. What's changed in the past six months? Haize Capital believes the primary challenge is a slowdown in room night growth, shifting Booking from a growth stock to a value stock—a trend that's hard to reverse.
Room nights is a key indicator of Booking's growth. Projections for 2024 showed expected growth rates of 4%-6% for Q1, Q2, and 3%-5% for Q3. Actual growth for Q1 and Q2 was 8.5% and 7.1%, respectively. Despite beating expectations, the growth rates are now less impressive compared to the double-digit significant growth seen in the past. With Q3 projections lower than Q2, the actual growth could below 7.1%, it's not surprising that market confidence is waning.
From a practical growth perspective, there's little to suggest Booking can maintain its growth stock status:
1. Geographically: In Q2, Booking's room night growth in Europe and the U.S. was in the single digits, Asia slightly exceeded 10%, and other regions grew by high single digits. Asia's double-digit growth is what pulled the average up to 7.1%. If Asia's post-pandemic travel boom ends sooner than expected and seasonal spending patterns return quickly, Booking has little chance to see double-digit average growth.
2. Product-wise: Booking's two other major product lines, car rentals and flights, grew by 10% and 28% in Q2, with sales volumes of 22 million rental days and 11 million tickets, respectively. However, these figures don't indicate a strong second growth curve; they serve more as tools for cross-selling or attracting new customers. As for local experiences like attractions, tickets, dining, and activities, these haven't been highlighted in earnings calls or reports as high-growth or high-revenue products that could reassure shareholders.
If we don't consider Booking as a growth stock, it still stands out as a solid investment from a value stock perspective, reflecting the company's efforts to enhance profitability. While Q2 gross bookings and revenue grew only 6% and 7% YoY, EPS increased by 11%, thanks to cost reductions, efficiency improvements, and stock buybacks. Even with room night growth at just 5%, the quarterly increase of 13.8 million room nights is a strong negotiating asset in any business deal.
Moreover, even if the next leader in travel growth is about to rise, it's not likely to be Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) or Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB). Their reliance on U.S. customers, whose spending power is increasingly constrained by record-high credit card debt, limits their ability to expand the consumer bubble.
標籤 Label： OTA BKNG Hotel Growth Value EXPE ABNB