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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
有沒有什麼樣的旅遊公司，財報看似平安穩健，實則威脅潛伏？有的，Sabre(NASDAQ: SABR)就是很好的例子，海擇資本從近期公告的Q2財報簡述一些我們的觀點。
本季Sabre的Q2財報，其實不能算不好，對預期指標完成度也高，對一家持續虧損的GDS公司來說，也算平安穩健的往盈利轉進：
1. 收入7.67億美金，YoY成長4%；Adjusted EBITDA達1.29億美金，YoY成長76%，看得出公司的KPI是將盈利的優先級置於增長之上。
2. 從指標來看，公司年初預期全年收入能做到30億美金，Adjusted EBITDA能超過5億美金；現在上半年結算收入為15.5億美金，Adjusted EBITDA為2.71億美金，達成率超過50%。旅遊行業下半年是旺季，如無意外，結算要超過上半年應該是輕而易舉。
既然如此，為什麼海擇資本要說Sabre威脅潛伏？原因在於，Sabre至少有三個指標，會讓投資人憂心忡忡：
1. 整體輸送人次首次下降：過往，我們會用疫情前的2019年運營數據來衡量一家旅遊公司的復甦程度，而2019Q2通過Sabre系統登機的人次為1.80億人次，我們會認為Sabre終究可以達到這個指標的。然而，在2023Q2輸送人次達到1.72億人次後，2024Q2輸送的人次為1.69億人次，這是疫情後Sabre首次在季報出該運營指標下滑的現象，這也意味著Sabre出現了瓶頸，雖不能武斷的說漲價失敗，畢竟Travel Solutions的總收入仍有增長，但這是個警訊。
2. 淨負債仍未降低：Sabre說明每個月花了很多費用還債，一些利率高的長期負債確實也下降不少。但無奈的是，從淨負債的層面來看，負債仍不斷增加；從財報可以發現，淨負債從2023年初的41.3億美金(2023Q1)，歷經42.2億美金(2023Q2)、44.9億美金(2024Q1)，一直到本期(2024Q2)的45.2億美金。如果長期負債持續清償，但淨負債又不斷增加，那只能認為短期負債也正在快速往上堆疊，由於短期負債必須在1年內清償，顯然這不是好事。
3. GAAP難以轉盈：即便Q2的Adjusted EBITDA有1.29億美金，GAAP的淨損仍有1,848萬美金，那只能認為公司若要在GAAP損益兩平，估計EBITDA要做到1.5億美金或甚至1.8億美金才行，未來仍是如履薄冰。
就沒有好消息嗎？還是有的。Sabre的酒店事業正在快速成長，Q2收入8,324萬美金，不僅運營收入相對去年虧轉盈，盈利也較Q1成長116%；加諸Q2與Hyatt(NYSE: H)酒店的合作已貢獻了收入，或許這會是未來能帶動公司成長的第二收入。
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A Travel Company with Hidden Risks Despite Stable Earnings? Yes, Sabre (NASDAQ: SABR) fits this description. Haize Capital has some observations based on Sabre's recent Q2 earnings report.
Sabre's Q2 report appears solid, meeting expectations and showing progress toward profitability for a company that has been consistently losing money:
1. Revenue reached $767 million, up 4% YoY; Adjusted EBITDA was $129 million, up 76% YoY, indicating the company's focus on profitability over growth.
2. Sabre initially projected full-year revenue of $3 billion and Adjusted EBITDA over $500 million. With first-half revenue at $1.55 billion and Adjusted EBITDA at $271 million, they've achieved over 50% of these targets. Given that the second half of the year is typically the peak season for travel, surpassing first-half results should be manageable.
Why Does Haize Capital See Hidden Risks? Haize Capital identifies three concerning indicators for Sabre, despite its seemingly stable performance:
1. First Decline in Passenger Volumes: Historically, travel company's recovery has been measured against pre-pandemic 2019 levels, where Sabre’s Q2 passenger volumes were 180 million. In Q2 2023, volumes reached 172 million, but dropped to 169 million in Q2 2024. This post-pandemic decline suggests Sabre has hit a bottleneck. While it doesn’t necessarily mean pricing strategies have failed—given that Travel Solutions' revenue still grew—it is a warning sign.
2. Net Debt Continues to Rise: Sabre has been reducing high-interest long-term debt, but net debt has been steadily increasing. From $4.13 billion in early 2023 (Q1), it grew to $4.22 billion (Q2 2023), $4.49 billion (Q1 2024), and now $4.52 billion (Q2 2024). This indicates that short-term debt is piling up rapidly, which is problematic since it must be repaid within a year.
3. Difficulty Achieving GAAP Profitability: Despite an Adjusted EBITDA of $129 million in Q2, Sabre still reported a GAAP net loss of $18.48 million. This suggests that to achieve breakeven on a GAAP basis, Sabre would likely need an EBITDA of $150 million to $180 million, making future profitability a challenging target.
Any Good News? Yes, there is. Sabre's hotel business is growing rapidly, with Q2 revenue reaching $83.24 million. Not only did it turn profitable compared to last year's losses, but its earnings also grew by 116% from Q1. Additionally, the Q2 partnership with Hyatt (NYSE: H) has already contributed to revenue, potentially becoming a second growth driver for the company.
標籤 Label： SABR GDS Debt Airlines Hospitality