途牛Q2財報: 團隊遊回歸主流；盈利增長中
Tuniu Q2 Results: Group Travel Returns to Mainstream; Earnings Growing

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

在攜程(NASDAQ: TCOM)、美團(HK: 3690)與同程(HK: 0780)宛如洪流一般的營業規模下，途牛(NASDAQ: TOUR)曾被視為一艘即將傾覆的小船。不過，從Q2財報來看，它的風險正在降低，盈利能力也正在增長。海擇資本基於本期財報，披露幾個觀點如下：

1. 團隊遊回歸主流事業：途牛在Q2的淨收入為1.17億人民幣，YoY增長17%；其中團隊旅遊收入達人民幣8,978萬人民幣，YoY增長28.6%；遠高於平均值的團隊遊增速意味著，包含各類自由行與保險類產品的成長性偏弱，YoY衰退10%，僅為2,716萬人民幣。但團隊遊回歸主流事業可以理解為margin正在提高，並不算壞事。

2. 繼續降本增效：在團隊遊佔比增加的同時，途牛也還能維持降本增效的運營模型，Q2的營業成本、研發費用、行政管理費用，分別比年同去年同期減少5.8%、8.2%、0.01%。在旅遊復甦期的時間點來看，這是讓人意外的；這一方面體現出公司降低成本的意志，另一方面也顯示公司有很好的新人教育訓練方式，才能把費用降到如此之低。而行銷費用成為途牛唯一高增速且高佔比的費用，達4,020萬人民幣，YoY增長61.5%。途牛在新媒體運營與多通路吸引新客的成效，將成為暑期是否能拉高盈利的重點。

3. Q3沒有報復性增長：依照途牛對Q3的預期，淨收入YoY僅增長3%至8%。這可以理解為Q3並沒有報復性增長，或可說是旅遊的報復性增長已過。不過，海擇資本認為，以途牛在成本與費用的控制能力來看，營業利潤與淨利的增速可能會遠高於3%至8%。

現在看來，途牛的未來的走向將更偏向以短視訊等媒體獲取新客，再把新客低成本轉換成老客，做一家更偏中高端、更小而美的團隊遊的OTA；如果處理得當，未來1-2年的窗口期或許能有全年盈利1.5億到2億人民幣的能力，從這個角度看，現在的PE其實很低。

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Amidst the massive scale of operations by Trip.com (NASDAQ: TCOM), Meituan (HK: 3690), and Tongcheng (HK: 0780), Tuniu (NASDAQ: TOUR) was once seen as a small boat about to capsize. However, its Q2 earnings report indicates reduced risks and improving profitability. Haize Capital highlights a few key points:

1. Group Tours Return to Core Business: Tuniu reported Q2 net revenue of RMB 117 million, up 17% YoY. Group tour revenue reached RMB 89.78 million, growing 28.6% YoY, while the other segments like independent travel and insurance products saw weaker growth, declining 10% YoY to RMB 27.16 million. The return of group tours to the core business can be seen as a margin improvement, which is not a bad thing.

2. Continued Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement: As the share of group tours increased, Tuniu also managed to maintain its cost-reduction and efficiency-driven operational model. In Q2, operating costs, R&D expenses, and administrative expenses decreased by 5.8%, 8.2%, and 0.01% YoY, respectively. This is surprising during a period of travel recovery. It reflects the company's strong commitment to cost reduction and effective training of new employees. However, marketing expenses were the only area with significant growth, reaching RMB 40.2 million, a 61.5% YoY increase. The effectiveness of Tuniu's new media operations and multi-channel customer acquisition will be crucial for boosting profitability during the summer season.

3. No Explosive Growth in Q3: Tuniu's Q3 forecast predicts a modest net revenue increase of 3% to 8% YoY, indicating that the surge in travel demand has tapered off. However, Haize Capital believes that Tuniu's strong cost and expense control could result in operating and net profit growth that outpaces this revenue increase.

Looking ahead, Tuniu seems to be shifting towards acquiring new customers through short videos and other media, then converting them into loyal customers at a low cost. The company aims to become a more niche, mid-to-high-end OTA focused on small, curated group tours. If managed well, Tuniu could achieve an annual profit of RMB 150 million to 200 million in the next 1-2 years, making its current PE ratio appear quite low.

標籤 Label： NASDAQ: TOUR  Group Tour  Marketing  NASDAQ: TCOM  HK: 3690  HK: 0780