股市崩跌, 旅遊類股為何首當其衝?
Why tourism is the first to bear the brunt of the stock market crash?

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

在日股崩跌引發全球交易所大屠殺時，顯然韓國交易所也是受害方，從韓國的旅遊上市公司來看，不少公司市值都跌到一年以來的低點區。不是說旅遊報復潮嗎？為什麼旅遊公司不但不抗跌，反率先下行？再結合美國旅遊上市公司來看，一樣有類似的問題，Sabre(NASDAQ: SABR)、Avis(NASDAQ: CAR)、Trripadvisor(NASDAQ: TRIP)、Airbnb(NASDAQ: ABNB)，它們的財報雖不能說亮麗，但也沒到歷史低點的程度，但市值不約而同都正在進入疫情以來的低點，彷彿現在疫情才正開始。原因為何？海擇資本簡析部分觀點如下：

1. 從全球資本市場層面看，日股崩跌有源自擔憂美國經濟衰退的情緒蔓延。近期KOSPI和KOSDAQ指數5日全天持續暴跌，日股崩跌日收盤時分別創下歷史最大跌幅-8.77%和-11.3%，科斯達克還跟日本一樣啟動了熔斷機制，暫時停止股票交易。

2. 從韓國資本市場的層面來看，近期業務覆蓋旅遊產品的韓國全品類電商Timon和WeMakePrice由於資金問題，申請企業重整，在首爾破產法院下達保全命令後，延遲對供應商付款。這連帶對款項回收帳期較長的旅行社行業發出了警告，影響了旅行社的市值表現。相對來說，航空公司類股的受害較淺。

3. 從韓國旅遊資本市場的層面來看，韓國近年經濟低迷對旅遊情緒也產生了負面影響。經濟低迷將導致擔心匯率變數抑制旅遊情緒，比如韓元兌美元與韓元兌日圓匯率。

這裡面部分原因雖然是韓國專有，但部分原因則是放諸四海皆準。

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When the Japanese stock market crash triggered a global exchange massacre, the South Korean exchange also suffered, with many travel-related companies listed in Korea seeing their market values drop to the lowest point in a year. Despite expectations of a travel rebound, why are travel companies not only failing to resist the downturn but actually leading the decline? Looking at U.S. travel companies like Sabre (NASDAQ: SABR), Avis (NASDAQ: CAR), TripAdvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP), and Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB), a similar issue arises. Although their financial reports are not spectacular, they haven't reached historic lows, yet their market values are approaching the lowest points since the pandemic, as if the pandemic is just starting. What's the reason? Haize Capital briefly analyzes the situation as follows:

1. From the perspective of global capital markets, the Japanese stock crash was largely driven by fears of a U.S. economic recession. Recently, the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices in South Korea experienced significant drops, closing with their largest historical single-day declines of -8.77% and -11.3%, respectively. Like Japan, KOSDAQ even activated a circuit breaker mechanism to temporarily halt trading.

2. Looking at South Korea's capital market, recently the all-category e-commerce platforms Timon and WeMakePrice, which offer travel products, faced financial difficulties and filed for corporate restructuring. Following a preservation order issued by the Seoul Bankruptcy Court, these companies delayed payments to suppliers. This has sent a warning to the travel agency industry, which typically has longer payment collection cycles, impacting their market value. In contrast, airline stocks have been less affected.

3. From the perspective of the South Korean travel capital market, recent economic downturns in Korea have also negatively impacted travel sentiment. Economic slumps raise concerns about currency fluctuations, such as the exchange rates of the Korean Won against the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, which can dampen the desire to travel.

While some of these reasons are specific to Korea, others are universally applicable.

標籤 Label： Trading  Tourism  SABR  ABNB  KOSPI  KOSDAQ