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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
隨著各資本市場的旅遊公司公告Q2財報，各細分市場的巨頭紛紛中箭落馬，目前唯有Uber(NYSE: UBER)的財務與資本市場表現繼續一騎絕塵。UBER的標籤看來除了"旅遊"、"網約車"、"外賣"、"雜貨配送"外，又加上了深受資本市場青睞的"反週期"與"失業受惠"的新標籤。海擇資本披露幾個觀點如下：
1. 財務頂點尚難洞見：本季Uber除了月支付活躍數(MAPCs, Monthly Active Platform Consumers)達1.56億，YoY增長14%，再創歷史新高外；收入達107億美金，YoY增長16%；運營利潤再創歷史新高，更達到7.96億美金，YoY增長144%，季度盈利10億美金轉眼可見。這可以理解為，目前Uber"永動式"的增長還沒有看到界限，過往我們在數不清的互聯網公司商業計畫書中，能看到類似從"低價爭取市佔"到"高市佔後成為印鈔機"的表述，但真正能做到的公司，猶如鳳毛麟角。終於Uber成為新典範，孫正義在阿里(NYSE: BABA)之後，多了一個能拿出手的漂亮案例。
2. 新的增長邏輯：海擇資本此前不斷談過，從需求面看，疫情後旅遊/餐飲行業正在全球變成更剛需的服務；從供給面看，Ube則通過經濟不景氣的高失業率改善供給，讓失業人口彼此競價/內卷、優化供給。比如：
·網約車：Uber在疫情間快速增加了司機的供給。疫情間，有更多的失業者選擇成為Uber司機，大量供給讓Uber與司機斡旋談判時，能取得有利的籌碼。
·配送：近期Uber發現，這些大量的供給，在配送雜貨時有更好的運用。比如當消費者使用Uber進行Costco(NYSE: COST)商品的雜貨配送，商品揀選是由Uber的配送人員處理，而非由Costco的工作人員負責。這意味著，消費者下單後，Uber的配送人員必須進入Costco，按照訂單挑選商品，過程與Instacart模式類似，這些高複雜的工作，並不會增加配送人員的所得(小費例外)。配送費用僅與配送距離有關，距離越遠，費用越高；與配送重量及挑選商品時間都無關。如果不是配送人員的供給大於需求，很難想像這類交易能增長。由於雜貨和零售的TAM實際上比外賣的TAM更大，拜此之賜，Uber配送又成為大有可為的事業。
·大型合作：本季電話會議Uber也提及與比亞迪(SH: 002594)在電動車與自動駕駛的合作。Hertz(NASDAQ: HTZ)雖曾因大量購入電動車處於二次破產的慘況，但Uber不會有相同的問題，因為Hertz是購入電動車做為自營資產，會因電動車跌價快而受創；但Uber是推薦司機購入電動車，以資本或流量補貼促使司機購置電動車，車輛的跌價風險由司機承擔，Uber承諾購買的10萬輛比亞迪電動車看起來很多，但相比現有的740萬司機供給則很少。
整體來說，海擇資本認為，疫情後旅遊/餐飲公司是基於需求轉變而在需求面受惠；而Uber除了有類旅遊公司的光環，還因失業不景氣在供給層面受惠。從疫情期走到本次美國正在發生的軟/硬著陸，Uber找到了更多的應用場景，這值得創業關注並思考借鑑方式。
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Travel companies across capital markets have announced their Q2 financial reports, and among the giants in various sub-markets, only Uber (NYSE: UBER) continues to outperform in both finances and capital market performance. In addition to tags like "travel," "ride-hailing," "food delivery," and "grocery delivery," Uber has now also earned the favor of capital markets with new tags such as "counter-cyclical" and "beneficiary of unemployment." Haize Capital has shared several insights as follows:
1. Financial peak still elusive: This quarter, Uber's Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) reached 156 million, a 14% year-over-year (YoY) increase, setting a new historical high. Revenue hit $10.7 billion, up 16% YoY; operating profit also reached a new high of $796 million, a 144% YoY increase, with quarterly earnings soon to hit $1 billion. This suggests that Uber's "perpetual" growth has yet to see a limit. Historically, countless internet company business plans have proposed shifting from "low price for market share" to "high market share as a money printer," but few have succeeded. Uber has now become a new paradigm, giving Masayoshi Son another exemplary success story following Alibaba (NYSE: BABA).
2. New growth logic: Haize Capital has repeatedly discussed that post-pandemic, the travel and dining sectors are becoming essential services globally from the demand side. From the supply side, Uber has leveraged high unemployment rates during economic downturns to improve supply, fostering competition among the unemployed to optimize offerings. For instance:
- Ride-hailing: Uber rapidly increased driver supply during the pandemic. Many unemployed individuals became Uber drivers, providing Uber with leverage in negotiations due to the abundant supply.
- Delivery: Uber has recently found that this ample supply is better utilized in grocery delivery. For example, when consumers use Uber for Costco (NYSE: COST) grocery deliveries, the selection is handled by Uber’s delivery personnel, not Costco staff. Delivery costs are only related to distance—the farther the distance, the higher the cost, unrelated to the weight of the delivery or time spent picking items. Such transactions would not grow if there wasn't an excess of delivery personnel supply. Given that the total addressable market (TAM) for groceries and retail is actually larger than that for food delivery, this has positioned Uber Delivery for significant growth.
- Large-scale partnerships: In this quarter's earnings call, Uber also mentioned cooperation with BYD (SH: 002594) on electric and autonomous vehicles. Although Hertz (NASDAQ: HTZ) faced near-bankruptcy due to purchasing a large fleet of electric vehicles, Uber faces no similar issue as it encourages drivers to buy electric vehicles, with capital or traffic subsidies aiding purchases, leaving depreciation risks to drivers. Uber's commitment to buying 100,000 BYD electric vehicles seems substantial but is minor compared to the current supply of 7.4 million drivers.
Overall, Haize Capital believes that post-pandemic, travel and dining companies have benefited from a shift in demand. On the supply side, Uber has benefited from the high unemployment rate. From the pandemic to the current soft/hard landing occurring in the U.S., Uber has identified more utilization scenarios, which is worthy of entrepreneurial attention and consideration for emulation.
標籤 Label： UBER Tourism Ride-hailing Delivery Costco SH: 002594