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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
當一家成長型公司不斷以價值型公司的角度說服投資人，而關鍵指標數據都略微失速時，就引發了市值崩盤，這就是Q2公告財報後的Airbnb(NASDAQ: ABNB)。不過也有好處，這應該是Chesky在電話會議面對股東時最開誠布公的一次，至於能否接受Airbnb的短中長期布局，就由投資人自己決定。海擇資本分享觀點如下：
1. Q2財務結算偏弱，Q3預期也偏弱：本季Airbnb間夜增速為9%，間夜量1.25億略低於Q1；淨利5.6億美金也較去年同期略低15%；考慮到並非每項運營指標都不好，Q2本就不是旺季，其實並不算特別差。不過，由於Q3給的預期也不好，收入增速首次落到個位數(8%-10%)；間夜增速也不到9%，Q3間夜量推估只剩Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)的40%。投資人都希望Airbnb能在Booking減速時超車，而Airbnb還被Booking拉開距離，這不能說不是個挫敗。
2. 長期戰略為國際化：Chesky本次也清楚地說明，之所以未如過往招股說明書所寫，將體驗與長租類產品引導成新的收入曲線，主要原因在於，把Airbnb做到全球化的回報還很高，他認為Airbnb目前實際上只真正滲透美國、英國、法國、加拿大和澳洲五國市場，就已對應當前的市值(8/8收盤市值為714億美金)；若Airbnb在歐洲(德國、義大利與西班牙)、拉丁美洲(巴西、秘魯、智利、哥倫比亞與阿根廷)、亞洲(中國、日本、韓國、印度與東南亞整體)等所有上述國家，都能達到加拿大或澳洲當前的市場滲透率，總交易額還能再翻升數倍。
3. 中期戰略為開發自有AI：本次會議Chesky也說明了，Airbnb的AI工具在2025年都不會完成，因為Airbnb並不是要接入ChatGPT等大語言模型，而是要自己開發一套大語言模型。這套工具最終將不僅僅是一個搜尋框，用戶通過輸入目的地、日期找到物業清單。它將更像是一個旅行禮賓服務，以影片而非文字/照片的形式行銷，它還應該是通過對話、學習來適應用戶。雖然開發此功能需要數年時間，但Airbnb將得以移動到旅遊漏斗的頂部，成為旅行靈感與攻略內容的提供者，對未來推廣新產品線也會更有利。
4. 短期戰略為服務消費降級：CFO並提到，從ADR的上升看公司更傾向服務高端人群略有誤讀，正確的解讀是，Airbnb建立了對標各類酒店的低價庫存，而這些願意接受高ADR的消費人群，來自於原本選擇住酒店的人群。同時，為了維護庫存的增長與獨佔，公司將推動"新託管式"物業，公司的原話是"有些人有家，但沒有時間；有些人有時間，但沒有家。如果我們可以將這兩類人配對在一起，將釋放更多的庫存(So, there are people that have homes, but they don't have time. There are other people in the world that have time, but they don't have a home...What if we can match those two people together? That would unlock a lot more inventory)"，無論這是應對歐洲反Airbnb的左派話術還是真正的運營戰略，都值得觀察。
整體來說，本次電話會議Chesky說的話可能不是市場投資人想聽的話，但是他明確勾勒了未來戰略的方向與藍圖，剩下的是投資人是否願意等待3-5年，目睹長期戰略的落實。
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When a growth-oriented company tries to persuade investors from a value-oriented perspective, and key performance indicators slightly decelerate, it leads to a market value collapse, as seen with Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) after their Q2 earnings report. However, it also had its advantages, as it was probably the most forthright Chesky has been in a conference call with shareholders. Whether to accept Airbnb’s short, medium, and long-term strategies is up to the investors. Haize Capital shares its perspective as follows:
1. Weak Q2 financial results, weak Q3 outlook: This quarter, Airbnb's room nights growth was 9%, with 125 million nights slightly below Q1; net profit of $560 million was also down 15% year-over-year. Although not every operational metric was poor and Q2 is not the peak season, the results were not exceptionally bad. However, the outlook for Q3 is also poor, with revenue growth expected to drop to single digits (8%-10%); the growth in room nights is also less than 9%, with Q3 volume estimated to be only 40% of Booking's (NASDAQ: BKNG). Investors hoped Airbnb would outpace Booking during its slowdown, but instead, Airbnb fell further behind.
2. Long-term strategy for internationalization: Chesky clearly stated that the main reason Airbnb has not developed experiences and long-term rental products into a new revenue curve, as initially outlined in its prospectus, is that the returns from globalizing Airbnb are still substantial. He believes that Airbnb has only truly penetrated the markets of five countries—USA, UK, France, Canada, and Australia—and these alone correspond to its current market value ($71.4 billion as of August 8). If Airbnb could achieve similar market penetration in European countries (Germany, Italy, Spain), Latin America (Brazil, Peru, Chile, Colombia, Argentina), and Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, India, and Southeast Asia) as it has in Canada or Australia, the total transaction volume could multiply several times.
3. Mid-term strategy to develop proprietary AI: Chesky also mentioned that Airbnb’s AI tools will not be completed until 2025, as the company is not integrating large language models like ChatGPT but developing its own. This tool will ultimately be more than just a search box where users find property listings by entering a destination and dates. It will resemble a travel concierge service, marketing through videos instead of text/photos, and will adapt to users through interaction and learning. While this development will take years, it will position Airbnb at the top of the travel funnel, becoming a provider of travel inspiration and strategy content, which will benefit the promotion of new product lines in the future.
4. Short-term strategy for downgrading services: The CFO mentioned that interpreting the rise in Average Daily Rate (ADR) as catering more to high-end clients is slightly misleading. A more accurate interpretation is that Airbnb has established a low-cost inventory benchmarked against various hotels, attracting consumers who are willing to accept higher ADRs and typically choose hotels. Additionally, to maintain and monopolize inventory growth, the company will promote "new managed" properties. The company's exact words were, "So, there are people that have homes, but they don't have time. There are other people in the world that have time, but they don't have homes...What if we can match those two people together? That would unlock a lot more inventory," Whether this is a response to European anti-Airbnb leftist rhetoric or a genuine operational strategy remains to be observed.
Overall, in this earnings call, Chesky's statements might not have been what market investors wanted to hear, but he clearly outlined the future strategic direction and blueprint. What remains is whether investors are willing to wait 3-5 years to see the long-term strategies realized.
標籤 Label： ABNB Globalization AI BKNG