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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
近日Tripadvisor(NASDAQ: TRIP)在公告2023Q2財報後，市值隨即創下歷史低點，曾經的旅遊攻略神器與元搜索平台，終也有步下神壇的一天。Tripadvisor旗下的體驗平台Viator無法協助它翻轉嗎？上次市值低迷時，推出了夢幻武器會員制"Tripadvisor Plus"，也有攜程投資救場，這次真的無人能救了嗎？海擇資本的觀點如下：
1. 更糟的Q3即將到來：Tripadvisor商業模式曾有的變迭與困局，海擇觀點過往談過不少，不再細述。公司Q2的財報確實也不好，Tripadvisor平台收入YoY下降10%，平台的酒店收入下降14%，這意味著OTA自己都在存亡之秋，元搜索能給的ROI遠遠排不上優先級；雖然Viator與The Fork雙雙轉盈，淨利2,400萬美元勉強與去年同期打平，不過，公司預期Q3在Tripadvisor平台的年減幅度將較Q2增加，Viator的收入增速還將低於Q2(13%)，那麼，得到EBITDA較去年同期衰退的結果也不奇怪。
2. AI行程規劃尚無變現能力：本次電話會議聽得出CEO Matthew Goldberg對Tripadvisor平台的AI產品抱有厚望。海擇資本實際測試，感受比Booking與Expedia的AI Chat Robot更為直觀，但POI未與Tripadvisor所售的產品連結，AI也缺乏對探索/修改使用者需求的能力，還談不上完全體。更讓投資人不可思議的是，CEO對現有酒店元搜索產品並不重視，Goldberg稱呼該產品線為"對歷史遺留產品的依賴(our historical reliance on legacy offering)"，認為這是整體產品組合中"重要但不核心的部分(an important but less central part of our overall business mix)"。對於一條佔有公司50%收入與87% EBITDA的產品線持有這樣觀點，會讓投資人很擔心。
3. Viator高增長期已過：本季另一個重點是，Viator的收入(2.44億美元)的YoY增速僅有13%，這看來已經是相對成熟、得開始考慮盈利的增速了；但，本季Adjusted EBITDA僅做到1,000萬美元，雖然相較去年虧轉盈是好消息，但沒有好到能讓集團轉危為安的程度；如果收入規模僅止於此，可能EBITDA做到3,000萬美元就是Viator的上限，這無法取代未來酒店元搜索續弱帶來的損失。TheFork在本期的盈利也可以用相同角度理解。
雖然說上市公司最怕衰退，但Tripadvisor畢竟是盈利公司、可用的資源不少、Viator仍有價值，市值創下歷史新低也令人驚訝。海擇資本認為主要原因有兩個，一是CEO對資源優先級安排不當，讓Tripadvisor平台收入/淨利衰退過快，而體驗平台Viator的收入/淨利又沒有很好的跟上；其次，Tripadvisor可能還是需要一場互惠的戰略收購，但按照目前的地緣政治情勢，需要Tripadvisor的公司沒法買，能買Tripadvisor的公司又很難建立綜效。這個難解習題，只能讓生命自己尋找出口了。
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Recently, Tripadvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP) saw its market value drop to a historic low following the announcement of its Q2 2023 financial report. Once a revered travel guide and meta-search platform, Tripadvisor seems to be losing its divine status. Could its experiences platform, Viator, not help turn things around? In the past, during times of low market value, Tripadvisor launched the "Tripadvisor Plus" membership program and received investment from Ctrip to help rebound. Is there really no one to save it this time? Haize Capital shares the following perspective:
1. A worse Q3 is on the horizon: Haize Capital has previously discussed the iterations and dilemmas of Tripadvisor's business model in detail, which will not be elaborated here. The company’s Q2 financials were indeed poor, with a 10% year-over-year decline in platform revenue and a 14% decrease in hotel revenue, indicating that OTA itself is facing a critical survival challenge, and the ROI provided by meta-search is no longer a priority. Although Viator and The Fork both turned profitable, with a net profit of $24 million barely breaking even with the same period last year, the company anticipates an increase in the annual reduction rate on the Tripadvisor platform in Q3 compared to Q2. With Viator’s revenue growth expected to be lower than in Q2 (13%), it is not surprising that EBITDA is expected to decline compared to the same period last year.
2. AI Itinerary Planning Lacks Monetization Capability: In the recent earnings call, CEO Matthew Goldberg expressed high hopes for Tripadvisor’s AI product on the platform. Haize Capital tested it and found it more intuitive than the AI chat robots from Booking and Expedia. However, the Points of Interest (POI) are not linked to the products sold by Tripadvisor, and the AI lacks the ability to explore or modify user demands, thus it's far from being fully developed. Moreover, investors find it surprising that Goldberg downplays the current hotel meta-search products, referring to them as "our historical reliance on legacy offerings" and considering them "an important but less central part of our overall business mix." This perspective on a product line that accounts for 50% of the company's revenue and 87% of EBITDA is concerning for investors.
3. Viator’s High Growth Phase is Over: This quarter, another focus was that Viator's revenue ($244 million) only grew 13% YoY, which seems to be a maturing growth rate signaling a shift towards profitability considerations. However, this quarter's adjusted EBITDA was just $10 million, and although it's good news that it turned from a loss to a profit compared to last year, it’s not sufficient to stabilize the company’s overall situation. If the revenue scale remains at this level, a $30 million EBITDA might be the upper limit for Viator, insufficient to offset the continuing weakness in hotel meta-search. The profitability of TheFork in this period can be understood from the same perspective.
Although public companies generally fear recessions, it's surprising that Tripadvisor, a profitable company with considerable resources and a valuable Viator, has seen its market value hit a historical low. Haize Capital identifies two main reasons for this. First, the CEO's inappropriate prioritization of resources has led to a rapid decline in Tripadvisor platform revenue and net profit, while the experience platform Viator has not adequately compensated with its revenue/net profit growth. Secondly, Tripadvisor might benefit from a strategic acquisition that is mutually beneficial, but given the current geopolitical situation, companies that need Tripadvisor can't buy it, and those that can buy don't easily create synergies. This complex problem leaves the company to find its own way out.
標籤 Label： TRIP Meta-search Viator TheFork