日本旅行社報復性旅遊潮已過
The revenge travel wave in Japan is passing

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

日本觀光廳近期公佈2024年6月的"43家國內主要旅行社交易額月報(国内の主要旅行業43社・グループの旅行取扱状況)"。在連續觀察2024年各月數據後，海擇資本認為，雖然日本作為旅遊目的地仍處於高速增長，外國人訪日旅遊人次繼續創新高，但就日本旅行社本身運營的各事業(日本人出境+外國人入境+日本人國民旅遊)來看，地接社不算，整體來說報復性旅遊潮已過。海擇資本說明如下：

1. 旅行社團隊遊交易額年增速連續3月下降：加總旅行社團隊遊部分(日本人出境+外國人入境+日本人國民旅遊三條產品線)的交易額，43家日本主要旅行社的4月、5月、6月交易額年增速分別為6%、-4%、-8%；5月起交易額已不如2023年同期，報復性旅遊潮結束的趨勢已經明顯。

2. 旅行社總交易額年增速連續3月下降：加總旅行社的總交易額(涵蓋團隊遊事業與非團隊遊事業)，43家日本主要旅行社的4月、5月、6月總交易額，年增速分別為14%、6%、3%，雖然仍處於正增長，但報復性旅遊潮結束的趨勢也屬明顯。

3. 日本人國民旅遊最弱：從日本人出境/外國人入境/日本人國民旅遊三條產品線來看，目前動能最弱的是日本人國民旅遊，4月、5月、6月增速持續下滑，6月YoY衰退達9%；其次是外國人入境，6月總交易額僅與去年同期相仿(註: 外國人入境後，習慣上仍向境外OTA購買產品，向日本旅行社購買產品比例不高)。

4. 出境團隊遊增速仍高：日本人出境前購買的團隊遊產品交易額，反而是6月各項事業中增速最高的部分，較2023年同期增長89%；而整體產品(團隊遊+非團隊遊)的交易額較2023年同期增長34%，與日本人出境增速39%接近。

5. 雖然6月出境團隊遊部分的年增速極高，YoY增速達89%；但與5月(127%)及4月(215%)相比，降幅也很快；看來要恢復到2019年同期的規模，短中期還很難看到。

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The Japan Tourism Agency recently released the "June 2024 Monthly Transaction Report for 43 Major Domestic Travel Agencies." After continuous monitoring of the 2024 monthly data, Haize Capital notes that while Japan remains a rapidly growing tourist destination with foreign visitor numbers reaching new highs, the overall trend for Japanese travel agencies (including outbound, inbound, and domestic tourism, excluding local ground operators) indicates that the revenge travel wave has passed. Haize Capital explains as follows:

1. The year-over-year growth rate of travel agency group tours has declined for three consecutive months: The combined transaction volume for group tours (outbound, inbound, and domestic travel) of the 43 major Japanese travel agencies showed a growth of 6% in April, -4% in May, and -8% in June. Since May, the transaction volume has fallen below the same period in 2023, marking a clear end to the revenge travel trend.

2. **Overall Transaction Decline for Three Consecutive Months**: The total transaction volume of travel agencies (including group and non-group travel operations) for 43 major Japanese travel agencies in April, May, and June showed year-over-year increases of 14%, 6%, and 3%, respectively. Although still positive, the trend indicates a clear end to the revenge travel wave.

3. **Weakest in Domestic Travel for Japanese**: Among the three lines of products—outbound travel for Japanese, inbound travel for foreigners, and domestic travel for Japanese—the weakest momentum is in domestic travel for Japanese. The growth rate continued to decline in April, May, and June, with June seeing a 9% year-over-year decline. In contrast, inbound travel transactions in June were similar to last year (note: foreigners still tend to purchase from overseas OTAs after entering Japan, hence the proportion buying from Japanese travel agencies remains low).

4. **High Growth in Outbound Group Tours**: The transaction volume for group tours purchased by Japanese before traveling abroad was the highest growing segment in June, up 89% compared to the same period in 2023. Overall, the transaction volume for all products (group and non-group travel) grew by 34% year-over-year.

5. **High Growth Yet Rapid Decline in Outbound Group Tours**: Although the year-over-year growth rate for outbound group tours in June was exceptionally high at 89%, it has decreased rapidly compared to May (127%) and April (215%). It seems challenging to return to the levels of the same period in 2019 in the short to medium term. 

標籤 Label： Japan  Inbound  Outbound  Domestic  Group tour