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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
近期東南亞網約車暨配送服務商Grab(NASDAQ: GRAB)公告2024Q2財報，電話會議核心內容可以歸結為"應對消費降級"六字，本季公司財務面繼續改善，但若要比照Uber(NYSE: UBER)方式取得投資人認同，Grab還是無法達成一些Uber已經做到的護城河。海擇資本解讀部分觀點如下：
1. 往自負盈虧之路更進一步：Q2公司集團營收年增17%，達6.65億美元，創歷史新高；Adjusted EBITDA也做到連續10個季度增長--雖然絕對值只有6,400萬美金。公司仍維持全年EBITDA能做到2.5億美金到2.7億美金的預期不變，亦即下年年能達到1.24億美金到1.44億美金間，至少不會比上半年差；本期自由現金流也終於轉正，算是往自負盈虧之路更進一步。
2. 推進消費降級產品：東南亞的疫後復甦之路並不算坦途，主要也受全球不景氣影響。Grab也迅速的把產品戰略往消費降級調整，無論是名為Saver的配送服務，或是Saverrides與兩輪車Move It這些網約車服務，這些更廉價的產品都表現出強勁增長。舉例來說，Move It用戶約佔菲律賓MTU(millions of users)的三分之一，YoY增長達92%，是菲律賓月活躍能強勁成長的原因。公司在成本/費用也處於撙節狀態，管理費用甚至年減5%。整體來說，海擇資本認為公司EBITDA增長來自於節流的占比遠高於開源，消費降級先從自己開始，這也很不錯。
3. 競爭格局仍有動盪：雖然公司認為當地競爭格局並不緊迫，不過從公司給到消費者與司機的補貼來看並不是如此，第二季總補貼佔GMV的比例從第一季的9.7%升至10.1%。我們認為主要還是Grab在旅遊領域做得比競爭對手好，旅遊用戶相對各國境內(domestic)用戶較不價格敏感，因此維持了Grab的增長，不然競爭格局對盈利是不利的。
4. 護城河仍待建立：Grab希望能比照Uber模式取得投資人的認同，但卻沒有Uber有的護城河。Uber能做到通過失業人群內卷增加對司機的議價能力，但Grab只能不斷提高激勵吸引司機加入，增加供給。在一個良性循環能建立之前，Grab還是好好地買回庫藏股註銷才是好方法，董事會授權的5億美元股票回購計劃，迄Q2結束只執行了3,460萬美元，自助而後天助。
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Recently, Southeast Asian ride-hailing and delivery service provider Grab (NASDAQ: GRAB) announced its Q2 2024 financial results. The core of the earnings call focused on "addressing consumption downgrading." Financial performance continued to improve this quarter, but Grab still lacks some of the competitive moats that Uber (NYSE: UBER) has established. HaiZe Capital's analysis includes the following points:
1. **Progress Toward Self-Sufficiency**: In Q2, Grab's group revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, reaching a record high of $665 million; Adjusted EBITDA has grown for ten consecutive quarters, albeit at a modest absolute value of $64 million. The company maintains its full-year EBITDA forecast of $250 million to $270 million, indicating that next year's performance will at least not be worse than the first half of this year. This period also marked the first time that free cash flow turned positive, signaling further progress toward self-sufficiency.
2. **Promotion of Downgraded Consumer Products**: Southeast Asia's post-pandemic recovery has been challenging, largely due to global economic downturns. Grab has swiftly adjusted its product strategy towards downgraded consumer offerings. Whether it’s the "Saver" delivery service or ride-hailing options like "SaverRides" and the two-wheeler service "Move It," these more affordable products have shown strong growth. For instance, Move It users account for one-third of the MTU (millions of users) in the Philippines, with a year-on-year growth of 92%, contributing significantly to the country's monthly active user surge. The company has also been cutting costs, with management expenses decreasing by 5% annually. Overall, HaiZe Capital believes that the growth in company EBITDA is more due to cost-cutting than revenue generation, with a strategy of starting consumption downgrading from within, which is commendable.
3. **Continued Competitive Turbulence**: Although Grab does not view the local competitive landscape as critical, the subsidies provided to consumers and drivers suggest otherwise, with total subsidies as a percentage of GMV increasing from 9.7% in Q1 to 10.1% in Q2. We believe that Grab's success primarily stems from its performance in the travel sector, where travelers are less price-sensitive compared to domestic users, thus sustaining Grab’s growth. Otherwise, the competitive environment could negatively impact profitability.
4. **Moats Still to Be Established**: Grab aims to gain investor recognition similar to Uber's model but lacks Uber’s competitive moats. Uber has been able to increase its bargaining power with drivers by leveraging the unemployed population, whereas Grab continually needs to increase incentives to attract drivers and boost supply. Before a positive cycle can be established, it would be wise for Grab to focus on repurchasing and retiring treasury stock. Of the $500 million stock buyback program authorized by the board, only $34.6 million was executed by the end of Q2. Self-help is the first step to external support.
標籤 Label： GRAB Ride-hailing Delivery Southeast Asia GOTO Gojek UBER