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海擇短評 Haize Comment:
日本旅遊暢旺,眾所周知,今年上半年的訪日外國旅客人次才創下歷史新高,達1,778萬人;不過,因過度旅遊而發生的現象也開始發生,其中一個面向,就在於產品供應鏈所出現的種種"新制"與"新現象" 。由海擇資本的角度看,其中之一就是"雙重定價制度(向外國人收取更高費用)"從B2C延伸到B2B的現況,我們對在各類B2B產品的影響說明如下:
1. 住宿類:一般來說,作為底層供應商的日本當地酒店,並沒有每年公佈B2B供應價的習慣,而是根據使用率逐項定價,這也比較有利於收益管理;不過,過往當地酒店在通過OTA銷售時,往往提供24小時之前的免費取消服務,但現在愈來越多通過B2B交易的庫存,只能在入住前90天免費取消,亦即消費者若在90天內退改,必須承擔全損或轉為投訴項目個案處理。
2. 景點門票類:目前B2B所拿到給外國旅客的多家東京的主題樂園門票,都已取消了適用於25人團體的團體票折扣;此外,金閣寺和清水寺等主要旅遊景點的停車場,也改為預約制。這類旅遊景點設置障礙,讓遊客參觀更不便的現象,也正在擴大中。
3. 包車類:包車產品受過度旅遊的影響也很大。由於日本包車區分營運區域,並非一張執照就能經營日本全區,當遊客湧向特定區域時,往往會出現包車供給不足的情況。在供給不足時,當地的車公司(底層供應商)就會開始提高價格,並在超過營運時間時追加"營運加班處罰"費用。日本包車原則上基本使用時間為10小時。對於上午9點開始的旅遊產品,如果在晚餐後才返回住宿點,很有可能會因為超時而產生額外費用,目前常見的超時罰款為每30分鐘1萬日元。
從投資與企業運營的角度來說,在供應鏈中距離底層供應商資源越遠的商家,受到的衝擊越大;當然,距離較遠的OTA與組團社,也可以用客戶量來制衡較近的地接社。在各顯神通的過程中,會出現特別有能耐的佼佼者,也會出現看似接了很多訂單但甚至無法盈利的公司,這就需要好好甄別競爭力。
另外,在消費層面會發生的現象是,雖然基於供給與需求的落差,產生"新制"與"新現象"再正常不過,但是外國人的體驗與滿意度終歸會受到影響。在過度旅遊發生的過程,"雙重定價制度"一定不會是唯一出現的新制;一方面觀光客被認定為"觀光公害",在目的地就會出現更多的抵制;一方面部分商家的舉措,一定也會讓觀光客難以辨識到底是"防止過度旅遊"還是"提高盈利能力",只要訪日遊客還繼續增加,這個現象就不會改變。一旦出現民族主義事件,設若應對不當,觀光客就有可能大幅下滑,這也是投入相關產業者開始要做的準備。
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Japan's tourism is thriving, with a record high of 17.78 million international visitors in the first half of this year. However, issues associated with overtourism are emerging, including new regulations and phenomena in the supply chain. From Haize Capital's perspective, one notable trend is the "dual pricing system (charging foreigners higher fees)" extending from B2C to B2B. Here's our analysis on how this impacts various B2B products:
1. **Accommodation**: Typically, local Japanese hotels, as primary suppliers, don't annually disclose B2B supply prices but set rates based on occupancy, which benefits revenue management. However, while they used to offer free cancellations up to 24 hours before via OTAs, many are now limiting free cancellations to 90 days before check-in in B2B transactions. Changes or cancellations within 90 days may lead to full charges or be handled as complaint cases.
2. **Attraction Tickets**: For foreign visitors, discounts for group tickets applicable to groups of 25 at multiple theme parks in Tokyo have been discontinued. Moreover, parking at major tourist sites like Kinkaku-ji and Kiyomizu-dera is now by reservation only, making visits more inconvenient as these barriers increase.
3. **Chartered Transportation**: The chartered vehicle sector is significantly affected by overtourism. In Japan, operating areas for chartered vehicles are specified, and a single license does not cover the entire country. This often results in shortages in specific areas during peak tourist influxes. Local transport companies (primary suppliers) respond by raising prices and imposing "overtime operation fees" when exceeding the basic operational time of 10 hours. For tours starting at 9 AM and returning after dinner, overtime charges are common, typically costing 10,000 JPY for every additional 30 minutes.
From an investment and business operations perspective, merchants further from the primary suppliers in the supply chain are more impacted. However, OTAs and tour operators can leverage their customer volumes to counterbalance agencies. This dynamic market will see the emergence of exceptionally capable competitors, as well as companies that get many orders but may not be profitable, necessitating careful assessment of competitiveness.
Additionally, on the consumer side, while the creation of "new systems" and "phenomena" due to supply and demand gaps is normal, the experiences and satisfaction of foreign tourists will ultimately be affected. With overtourism, the "dual pricing system" is not the only new system that will emerge. Tourists may be seen as a "tourism nuisance," leading to increased resistance at destinations. Furthermore, some business measures may make it difficult for tourists to discern whether actions are aimed at preventing overtourism or enhancing profitability. As long as the number of visitors to Japan continues to rise, these issues will persist. In the event of nationalist incidents, if mishandled, there could be a significant decline in tourist numbers, which stakeholders in the related industries need to prepare for.
標籤 Label: Accommodation Attraction Car-Rental Supply Japan