旅業奇觀點：金正恩希望川普當選？
Kim Jong-un wants Trump to be elected?

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

本期海擇觀點從旅遊切入來輕鬆談談，北韓金正恩是不是正在下注川普當選？

這個思路來自近期路透社(Reuters)的一則報導，談到北韓將於(2024)年底向外國遊客重新開放。自2020年疫情襲來，北韓也同步終止了入境旅遊，迄今沒有對國際遊客正式開放邊境；而該報導的依據是，2023年已開始恢復進出北韓的國際航班，今年2月有俄羅斯遊客飛往北韓進行私人旅遊。而專門辦理赴北韓旅遊的Koryo Tours與KTG Tours，也在官網透露了今年冬天起，將開放北韓三池淵(Samjiyon)地區的觀光旅遊，當地設施包括新公寓、酒店、滑雪場以及商業、文化和醫療設施。

不過，值得注意的是，美國一直對北韓進行著嚴格的金融與貿易制裁。關於旅遊方面，依據美國對北韓的禁令，雖然美國並未禁止其他國家的公民前往北韓旅遊，但其禁止本(美)國公民前往北韓，除非獲得特殊許可。而適用美國長臂管轄權的禁令有一條，即使是非美國的個人或公司，只要與北韓有金融往來，並且這些交易涉及到美國的金融體系(如使用美元結算、通過美國的銀行處理等)，就有可能被美國制裁。亦即，個人赴北韓旅遊問題不大，但經手赴北韓旅遊的旅行社，如果與"北韓官方"有商業合作或涉及到美元支付，這些旅行社即便不是美國公司，也可能會被美國長臂管轄的措施制裁，制裁可能包括凍結資產、禁止交易，甚至限制公司使用美國的金融服務。

但是"北韓官方"到底怎麼定義，北韓的地接社算是"官方"嗎？也許美國民主黨或共和黨當選人的認定可能會不太一樣。

有這樣的灰色邊界，為何北韓還這麼積極的開放旅遊？這不禁讓人想到，川普曾在維吉尼亞州的競選活動發言提到"我們有外部敵人——中國、俄羅斯、朝鮮。但是如果我們有一個聰明的總統，它們其實不算是真正的敵人(We have external enemies – China, Russia, North Korea. But they’re not really enemies if we had a smart president.)"。我們推測，也許金正恩認為，川普當選後，不會對北韓開發旅遊有意見，至少川普上一任就任美國總統時沒有意見。

所以，金正恩是不是正在下注賭川普當選？

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This time Haize Capital takes a light approach from the tourism perspective to speculate whether North Korea's Kim Jong-un is betting on Donald Trump's election.

This idea stems from a recent Reuters report that North Korea plans to reopen to foreign tourists by the end of 2024. Since the pandemic struck in 2020, North Korea has ceased all inbound tourism and has not officially reopened its borders to international tourists. The report notes that international flights to and from North Korea resumed in 2023, and in February, Russian tourists made private visits. Koryo Tours and KTG Tours, agencies specializing in North Korean travel, have revealed on their websites that starting this winter, the Samjiyon area—featuring new apartments, hotels, ski resorts, and commercial, cultural, and medical facilities—will be open for tourism.

However, it's important to note that the U.S. has imposed strict financial and trade sanctions on North Korea. Regarding travel, the U.S. prohibits its citizens from traveling to North Korea unless special permission is granted. Under U.S. jurisdiction, even non-U.S. individuals or companies that engage in financial transactions with North Korea, which involve the U.S. financial system (such as using U.S. dollars or processing through U.S. banks), can be subject to U.S. sanctions. This means that while individual travel to North Korea might not pose a major issue, travel agencies handling trips there could be sanctioned if they engage in business with North Korean "official" entities or involve dollar payments. These agencies, even if not U.S.-based, could face sanctions including asset freezes, transaction bans, and restrictions on using U.S. financial services.

The definition of what constitutes "North Korean official" entities, such as whether local North Korean travel agencies count as "official," might vary between Democratic and Republican administrations.

Given these gray areas in sanctions, North Korea's eagerness to open up for tourism raises questions. This brings to mind a statement from Trump at a campaign event in Virginia: "We have external enemies – China, Russia, North Korea. But they’re not really enemies if we had a smart president." It's speculated that Kim Jong-un might believe that Trump, if re-elected, would not oppose North Korea's tourism development, especially since there were no major objections during Trump's previous term as president.

So, is Kim Jong-un betting on Trump's election?

標籤 Label： North Korea  US  Trump   Tourism