登錄
選單
登錄
海擇短評 Haize Comment：
攜程集團(NASDAQ: TCOM)近期公告2024Q2財報，在運營利潤創歷史次高的背後，反映的是中國境內住宿庫存供過於求與中國人恢復出境旅遊的大環境；至於公司重點提及的Trip.com平台，對盈利的貢獻還不大。在因疫情低迷數年後，攜程雖然盈利面只處於世界第四，但增長趨勢來看，已恢復對TOP 3國際競爭對手的威脅。海擇資本分享觀點如下：
1. 盈利創歷史次高：攜程集團本季運營利潤35.6億人民幣創歷史次高，若用海擇資本加入"Equity in income of affiliates"的自訂指標來看(我們認為這能更真正反應攜程作為集團的運營現況)，盈利46.4億人民幣則屬歷史新高。攜程在淡季都能創下歷史新高的財務表現，這意味著，在經濟不振的背景下，中國與中國以外國家一樣，逐漸將旅遊視為剛性支出；而從全球主要公司Q2的EBITDA來看，攜程本季結算為6.1億美元，達Expedia(NASDAQ: EXPE)的78%，Airbnb(NASDAQ: ABNB)的68%，Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)的32%，已經恢復對全球前三大業者的威脅，特別是在亞洲市場各種產品庫存爭奪的層面。
2. 住宿事業為現金母牛：在攜程交通與住宿兩大核心事業中，住宿事業本季收入YoY增速為20%，而交通事業增速只有1%。海擇資本認為，這反應了攜程在(中國人)境內住宿與出境住宿雙雙取得優勢地位。國內酒店預訂量(bookings)YoY兩位數增長的背後，反映的是在攜程/美團/抖音的住宿版圖競爭格局中，美團更偏向低端，抖音更偏向高端，美團容或在低端讓攜程避無可避，但在中高端市場中，抖音僅在少部分連鎖酒店品牌有價格優勢，但在涵蓋單體酒店的整體覆蓋面中，攜程取得勝利；而出境酒店預訂量較2019年水準增長10%至20%的背後，則反映了攜程對出境客源的控制能力，這在中國仍無出其右，即便美團與抖音試圖競爭也不例外。
3. Trip.com占比仍小：值得關注的是，根據電話會議，被攜程寄予厚望的Trip.com平台，目前在總營收的占比仍僅有10.5%。按照Trip.com的YoY增速達70%往回推，2023年同期，Trip.com平台在總營收的占比為6.7%，如果Trip.com平台增速(70%)與集團其他收入增速(9.4%)不變，2025年同期占比可以到14.7%。不過，上述當然是過於理想的假設，從Trip.com平台亞太地區增速76%這點來看，這表示占比30%的亞太以外地區增速僅約43%，而未來Trip.com平台的增速強弱，取決於亞太地區報復性旅遊持續程度。不過，即便Trip.com平台最後只在亞太有影響力，對競品也有足夠的壓制能力，按照國際地緣政治現況，暫時也不該期待在大南方國家以外有好的成績。
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Ctrip Group (NASDAQ: TCOM) recently announced its Q2 2024 financial report, highlighting near-record operating profits. This reflects an oversupply in China's domestic accommodation inventory and the recovery of outbound travel among Chinese citizens. However, the contribution of the Trip.com platform to profits remains small. After years of downturn due to the pandemic, Ctrip's profits rank fourth globally, but its growth trend signals a resurgence, posing a threat to the top three international competitors. Haize Capital shares the following insights:
1. Near-record profits: Ctrip Group's operating profit of 3.56 billion RMB this quarter is the second highest in history. Using Haize Capital's custom metric, "Equity in income of affiliates," which we believe more accurately reflects the group's operational status, the profit is a record high at 4.64 billion RMB. Achieving record financial performance in the off-season suggests that, despite economic downturns, both China and other countries increasingly view travel as a necessary expenditure. From a global perspective, Ctrip's Q2 EBITDA was $610 million, reaching 78% of Expedia's (NASDAQ: EXPE), 68% of Airbnb's (NASDAQ: ABNB), and 32% of Booking's (NASDAQ: BKNG), indicating a competitive recovery, especially in terms of inventory competition in the Asian market.
2. Accommodation as a Cash Cow: Among Ctrip's two core businesses—transportation and accommodation—the accommodation segment saw a YoY revenue growth of 20%, while transportation only grew by 1%. Haize Capital notes this as indicative of Ctrip's strong position in both domestic and outbound accommodation in China. The double-digit growth in domestic hotel bookings reflects Ctrip's competitive edge in the lodging sector against Meituan, which targets the lower end, and Douyin, which leans towards the higher end. While Meituan might be unavoidable in the lower end, Trip.com prevails in the mid-to-high end market, except in a few chain hotel brands where Douyin has a price advantage. As for outbound hotel bookings, which have grown 10% to 20% compared to 2019 levels, this underscores Trip.com's control over outbound travelers, unmatched in China, despite attempts by Meituan and Douyin to compete.
3. Small Share for Trip.com: Notably, as per the conference call, the Trip.com platform, which is highly regarded by Ctrip Group, currently accounts for only 10.5% of total revenue. With a YoY growth rate of 70% for Trip.com, its share in total revenue was 6.7% in the same period in 2023. Assuming the growth rate for Trip.com (70%) remains constant relative to the group's other revenue growth (9.4%), its share could reach 14.7% by the same period in 2025. However, these are overly ideal assumptions. Considering the 76% growth rate in the Asia-Pacific region for Trip.com, this suggests that growth in regions outside Asia-Pacific, which account for 30%, is only about 43%. The future growth of the Trip.com platform will depend on the extent of revenge travel in the Asia-Pacific region. Nevertheless, even if Trip.com primarily influences the Asia-Pacific, it can still significantly challenge competitors. Given the current international geopolitical climate, one should not expect significant performance outside the Global South for now.
標籤 Label： Ctrip Trip.com OTA TCOM BKNG ABNB EXPE