同程旅行2024Q2財報：住宿業務增長亮眼，首見付費用戶停滯
Tongcheng Travel Q2 2024 Report: Strong Accommodation Growth, First Stagnation in Paying Users

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

同程旅行(HK: 0780)近期公告2024Q2財報，核心的交通票務與住宿業務收入，除了YoY有兩位數增長外，QoQ則以住宿業務更為突出，而平均月付費用戶數則首次呈現下滑；同程未來能否再進一步的關鍵，則在於國際化的潛力是否能實現。海擇資本簡述如下：

1. 核心本業帶動盈利創新高：本季同程Adjusted EBITDA為9.1億人民幣，創下歷史新高，較此前高點(2023Q3)高出5%。值得注意的是，Q1在經營溢利認列4,391萬人民幣的度假事業，Q2僅認列不到100萬，可以理解為盈利均由交通票務收入與住宿業務收入兩大核心本業創造。

2. 住宿業務增長更為亮眼：同程Q2交通票務收入與住宿業務收入分別為17.4億人民幣與11.9億人民幣，YoY分別增長17%與13%，QoQ分別增長0.3%與23%，可以發現同程在國內住宿的部分與攜程一致，受惠於住宿供應商供過於求的大環境，佣金收入的YoY增速(13%)高於總間夜數增速(10%)。

3. 首見付費用戶停滯：值得注意的是，帶有"支付活躍用戶"概念的平均月付費用戶數，在後疫情出現了首次下滑。Q2的平均月付費用戶數目為4,250萬人，較Q1的4,260萬人微幅下降10萬人，雖然從比例上看僅0.2%，仍屬重要警訊；而該數據與去年Q2未併表度假事業時的月付費用戶數(4,220萬人)比較，增長也很有限。這數據也意味著同程所談到的下沉市場、手機預裝、線下公共交通、社交活動等各種領域的拉新/拉活方式，似乎需要重新審視成效。

4. 國際化初有所成：同程Q2國際機票票量創下新高，YoY增長160%；國際間夜數則增長近140%，是不錯的成績，特別機票領域更需要算法，表示同程有不錯的技術能力。不過，國際化領域當前仍處於攜程(NASDAQ: TCOM)一枝獨秀的競爭格局，顯然同程還需要進行更有效果的投入。

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Tongcheng Travel (HK: 0780) Q2 2024 Financial Report: Double-Digit YoY Growth in Core Transportation and Accommodation Revenue, Accommodation Outperforms QoQ, but Monthly Active Users Decline. The Key to Future Growth Lies in International Expansion Potential. Haizhe Capital Summary:

1. Core Business Drives Record Profit: Tongcheng's Adjusted EBITDA reached a record high of 910 million RMB this quarter, 5% higher than the previous peak (Q3 2023). Notably, the Q1 vacation business contributed 43.91 million RMB in profit, but only less than 1 million RMB in Q2, indicating that profits came primarily from transportation and accommodation revenue.

2. Strong Growth in Accommodation Business: In Q2, Tongcheng's transportation and accommodation revenues were 1.74 billion RMB and 1.19 billion RMB, respectively, with YoY growth of 17% and 13%, and QoQ growth of 0.3% and 23%. Similar to Trip.com, Tongcheng benefited from an oversupply in domestic accommodation, with commission revenue growth (13% YoY) outpacing room night growth (10% YoY). 

3. First Decline in Paying Users: Average monthly paying users, a key metric, saw its first decline post-pandemic. In Q2, the number dropped slightly to 42.5 million from Q1’s 42.6 million, a 0.2% decrease, which is a warning sign. Compared to Q2 2023’s 42.2 million users (excluding the vacation business), growth was minimal, suggesting the need to reevaluate strategies in areas like lower-tier markets, pre-installed mobile apps, public transportation, and social activities.

4. Initial Success in Internationalization: Tongcheng achieved a new high in international flight ticket sales, with YoY growth of 160%, and a near 140% increase in international room nights. This performance, particularly in the flight sector requiring advanced algorithms, highlights Tongcheng’s technical capabilities. However, the international market remains dominated by Trip.com (NASDAQ: TCOM), indicating that Tongcheng still needs more effective investments in this area.

標籤 Label： HK: 0780  Accommodation  NASDAQ: TCOM