登錄
選單
登錄
海擇短評 Haize Comment：
日本國家旅遊局(JNTO)近期公告2024年7月日本人出境數據，雖然是4個月以來首次突破百萬人次，但年增速則創下後疫情以來新低。海擇資本認為，在8月之後，日本人出境的報復性旅遊潮將結束，較2019年低30%以上的出境人次，將成為日本出境遊常態。海擇資本並補充說明如下：
1. 7月日本人出境人次創後疫情第三高：7月日本人出境人數突破百萬人次，為104.9萬人，繼本(2024)年3月以來再次突破百萬人次，也創下2022年10月開放國境以來的第三高，如無意外，本年8月應能創下疫情後新高。
2. 出境層面的報復性旅遊潮將結束：不過，值得注意的是，7月即便突破百萬出境人次，也仍較2019年同期下降37%；且，若從年增率看，7月的增速17.6%為今年第六次下滑(按月度計算)，依此趨勢來看，未來已無大幅增長空間。後疫情出境層面的報復性旅遊潮已接近結束，低於2019年30%至40%的出境人次，將成為日本常態。
-----
Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) recently announced outbound travel data for July 2024.
Although it marked the first time in four months that the number of outbound travelers exceeded one million, the year-on-year growth rate reached a new low since the post-pandemic period. Haize Capital believes that after August, the surge of Japanese travelers taking revenge tourism will come to an end, and the number of outbound trips, which is over 30% lower than in 2019, will become the norm for Japan’s outbound tourism. Haize Capital provided the following additional details:
1. July saw the third-highest number of outbound Japanese travelers since the pandemic: In July, the number of outbound Japanese travelers surpassed one million, reaching 1.049 million, marking the first time since March 2024 that the figure exceeded one million again. It also represents the third-highest figure since the borders reopened in October 2022. Barring any surprises, August this year is expected to set a new post-pandemic record.
2. The revenge tourism wave for outbound travel is coming to an end: However, it’s noteworthy that even though the number of outbound travelers surpassed one million in July, it still represents a 37% decrease compared to the same period in 2019. Furthermore, in terms of the year-on-year growth rate, July’s growth rate of 17.6% marked the sixth consecutive monthly decline this year. Following this trend, there is little room for significant growth in the future. The post-pandemic revenge travel surge in outbound travel is nearing its end, and the number of outbound trips, which is 30% to 40% lower than in 2019, is expected to become the new norm for Japan.
標籤 Label： Japan JNTO Outbound Covid-19