組團社與地接社開始布局日本稀缺旅遊資源的時間點到了
It’s Time for Travel Agencies and Ground Operators to Tap into Japan’s Scarce Tourism Resources

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

組團社與地接社開始布局日本稀缺旅遊資源的時間點到了

隨著境外訪日遊客不斷創新高，過度旅遊成為對日本本地人來說的重要議題，除了日本商家的"雙重定價"制度逐步擴散外，日本政府也開始提供補貼，讓各地方政府偕同居民預防和控制過度旅遊。海擇資本認為目前的措施不會有太大的效果，如果訪日遊客續創新高，未來可能會往"控制需求"與"降低供給"的歐洲模式演變。

近期，日本觀光廳在第三次"預防和控制過度旅遊的永續旅遊促進計畫(オーバーツーリズムの未然防止・抑制による持続可能な観光推進事業)"申請中，經過篩選，選出了32個方案。方案是由各地地方政府和當地(旅遊)利益相關者，基於協商所決定的具體項目，日本政府會針對這32項方案補貼1/2的金額，補貼金額最高達5,000萬日圓。

按照海擇資本所取得的32項提案(如下表)，可以發現，這些提案大都以"優化目的地本身的運營效率"為主，不企圖直接控制旅客流量，以通過優化交通、住宿、餐飲等方式，促使旅客主動分流，避免大批旅客同時進入目的地的特定景點/景區，造成擁擠混亂，影響當地居民生活；其次，則是以更透明直觀的方式降低旅客不便，以避免旅客與居民發生衝突的潛在風險，比如安裝"智慧垃圾桶"與處理"入境大件行李"等項目。

如果與歐洲各城市處理過度旅遊的方式相比，目前日本的做法都比較間接和緩，風險就是未必直接有效。目前歐洲的做法，大致往"(強硬)控制需求"與"(強硬)降低供給"的方向走，前者比如限制遊客進入城市(杜布羅夫尼克)與收取進入費(威尼斯)；後者比如限制短期租賃房源總量(巴塞隆納)與限制新酒店的建設(威尼斯)，多數城市會同時採取多種應對方式。即便如此，居民對旅客的抗爭仍難以禁絕，比如巴塞隆納近期發生了居民揮舞水槍的反遊客示威，雅典等地也出現反旅遊塗鴉。

可以理解日本政府不希望將旅遊外匯收入拱手讓出，所以目前的政策尚未往歐洲模式走，但設若訪日遊客續創新高，旅客與居民的矛盾越演越烈，後續作法就很難平和。而從旅遊稀缺資源的角度來說，現在也許是組團社與地接社開始布局稀缺資源的時間點了。

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Haize Capital Insights of the Day

It’s Time for Travel Agencies and Ground Operators to Tap into Japan’s Scarce Tourism Resources

With the number of inbound tourists to Japan constantly reaching new heights, over-tourism has become a significant issue for local residents. In addition to the gradual spread of the "dual pricing" system by Japanese businesses, the Japanese government has begun providing subsidies to help local governments and residents prevent and control over-tourism. Haize Capital believes that the current measures will not have much effect. If the number of tourists continues to hit record highs, the situation may evolve into a "demand control" and "supply reduction" model similar to what we see in Europe.

Recently, Japan's Tourism Agency has launched its third round of applications for the "Sustainable Tourism Promotion Program for Preventing and Controlling Over-tourism" (オーバーツーリズムの未然防止・抑制による持続可能な観光推進事業). After a selection process, 32 proposals were chosen. These proposals were determined through consultations between local governments and local tourism stakeholders, and the Japanese government will subsidize half of the cost, with a maximum subsidy of 50 million yen per project.

Based on the 32 selected proposals obtained by Haize Capital (see table below), most focus on "optimizing the operational efficiency of the destination itself" rather than directly controlling the flow of tourists. The goal is to encourage tourists to voluntarily spread out by improving transportation, accommodations, and dining services to prevent large crowds from gathering at specific destinations or attractions, which can lead to congestion and disrupt the lives of local residents. Additionally, measures aim to make things more convenient for tourists in a transparent and intuitive way, reducing potential conflicts between tourists and residents, such as through the installation of "smart garbage bins" and the handling of "large inbound luggage."

In comparison to how European cities handle over-tourism, Japan’s approach is more indirect and mild, which carries the risk of being less effective. In Europe, measures generally lean towards "(strictly) controlling demand" and "(strictly) reducing supply." For example, some cities restrict tourist entry (Dubrovnik) or charge entrance fees (Venice); others limit the number of short-term rental properties (Barcelona) or restrict the construction of new hotels (Venice). Many cities use a combination of strategies. Despite these efforts, resistance from residents remains, such as recent anti-tourist protests in Barcelona where locals used water guns, or anti-tourism graffiti appearing in Athens.

It’s understandable that the Japanese government is hesitant to give up the foreign exchange income from tourism, which is why the current policies have not yet followed the European model. However, if the number of tourists continues to rise and the conflict between tourists and residents escalates, more aggressive measures may be inevitable. From the perspective of scarce tourism resources, now might be the right time for travel agencies and ground operators to start tapping into these limited resources.

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