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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
Airbnb翻盤紐約短期租賃法規LL18會成功嗎？
美國紐約市在一年前為遏制住宿租金飆升，不利該地長期居民，實施了新的短期租賃法規LL18。近期Airbnb廣發新聞稿，說明LL18既無效果，又傷害旅遊業，希望能以紐約市為樣板，一舉撥亂反正，處理未來政策風險。海擇資本認為，Airbnb對因果關係的證明不夠明確，也很難在當前政治優先級下說服市長(市議會)中止政策。
第18號地方法(LL18, Local Law 18)，也被稱為紐約市的短期租賃註冊法(Short-Term Rental Registration Law)，該法律是對紐約市短期租賃激增的回應。隨著Airbnb(NASDAQ: ABNB)、VRBO這類平台的快速增長，許多房主開始利用短租賺取更多收入，導致長租房源供給降低，讓當地長期租房的住戶認為自身利益受到損害，因此引導推動該地方法。法條原文明訂LL18的目的有四，分別為：保障可負擔房源(保留住房供長期居民使用，防止住宅轉變為短租房源)、改善生活品質(減少過度旅遊，防止租戶頻繁更換產生的噪音和安全問題)、合理限制市場(如只能出租住所的一部分，且出租期間房主必須在場)、確保稅務合規。
LL18實施一年之後，Airbnb引用了部分行業與工商團體數據，嘗試證明LL18既未收預期效果，又將旅遊業收入推於門外，大致如下：
1. 根據CoStar的數據，該法律生效後，紐約市的酒店平均價格上漲7.4%，明顯高於美國2.1%的平均增幅。
2. 根據房地產研究公司StreetEasy的數據，該法律生效後，租金仍上漲3.4%；此外，紐約的曼哈頓市中心的月租金中位數，創下5,000美元的歷史新高。
3. 根據Apartment List的數據，該法律生效後，紐約市的公寓空置率(3.4%)幾乎保持不變。
4. 布魯克林商會指出，該法律讓依靠房屋共享來支付基本開支的人，以及依賴旅遊收入的小型企業遭受重創。
一言以蔽之，Airbnb的敘事結構是"因為該法律生效後，相關數據沒有好轉，所以房租價格上漲是由短租以外的因素造成"；但衡量該法律生效一年間的物價漲幅，也無法排除"如果該法律未生效，房租價格上漲現象可能更嚴重"的推論，最後的結論，甚至還可能是--LL18的規範還可以更強硬。
Airbnb選擇在當前的時間點反擊LL18，當然也不乏有遏止類似LL18法規延伸到其他城市甚至其他國家的思考；不過，這企圖可能很難達成。以美國為例，無論城市市長的產生方式是來自於強市長制(Strong Mayor System，如紐約市、洛杉磯、芝加哥)或是議會-經理制(Council-Manager System)，一定程度上都是來自於直接或間接民選，市長與市議會都無法忽視長期住民的需求。事實上，去年紐約法院裁定LL18及其相關規定有效，確認該法律是針對非法短期租賃的合理應對措施，如果經濟背景沒有改變，海擇資本認為，法院的裁定未來也不會改變。
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Haize Capital Insights of the Day
Will Airbnb Succeed in Overturning New York’s Short-Term Rental Law LL18?
A year ago, New York City implemented LL18 to curb rising housing costs detrimental to long-term residents. Recently, Airbnb issued press releases criticizing LL18 for being ineffective and harmful to tourism. Haize Capital believes Airbnb’s evidence of causality is insufficient and that convincing the mayor or city council to halt the law will be challenging under current political priorities.
LL18, or the Short-Term Rental Registration Law, was introduced in response to the surge in short-term rentals facilitated by platforms like Airbnb and VRBO. This increase in short-term rentals led to a reduction in long-term housing availability, prompting local residents to push for LL18’s enactment.
The law outlines four primary objectives:
1. Preserving affordable housing – to keep housing available for long-term residents and prevent homes from being converted into short-term rentals.
2. Improving quality of life – by reducing issues such as noise and safety concerns caused by frequent tenant turnover.
3. Regulating the market – allowing only part of a primary residence to be rented out, and requiring the homeowner to be present during rentals of less than 30 days.
4. Ensuring tax compliance – making sure that those who profit from short-term rentals pay appropriate taxes.
After a year of LL18’s implementation, Airbnb cited data from industry groups to argue that LL18 has not achieved its intended goals and has instead hurt tourism, including:
1. According to CoStar, the average hotel price in New York City rose by 7.4%, much higher than the national average increase of 2.1%.
2. Real estate research from StreetEasy showed a 3.4% rent increase, with median rent in downtown Manhattan reaching a historic $5,000.
3. Data from Apartment List indicated that the city’s apartment vacancy rate remained unchanged at 3.4%.
4. The Brooklyn Chamber of Commerce noted that residents who rely on home-sharing for basic expenses, as well as small businesses dependent on tourism, have suffered.
Airbnb’s narrative is that the continued rise in rents is due to factors beyond short-term rentals, and the argument remains that without LL18, rent hikes could have been even worse. The conclusion may ultimately suggest that LL18’s regulations could be even stricter.
Airbnb’s efforts to challenge LL18 may also aim to prevent similar regulations from spreading to other cities and countries. However, this goal may be difficult to achieve. Whether a city's mayor is elected under the Strong Mayor System (as in New York, Los Angeles, or Chicago) or the Council-Manager System, they cannot ignore the needs of long-term residents. In fact, last year, a New York court upheld the legality of LL18, deeming it a reasonable measure against illegal short-term rentals. Unless there is a significant shift in economic conditions, Haize Capital believes this court ruling is unlikely to change in the future.
標籤 Label： LL18 STR NewYork ShortTermRental ABNB Airbnb VRBO