中日韓"旅遊部長級會議"是形式還是共識？
Is the "Ministerial Conference on Tourism" between China, Japan, and South Korea merely formal, or does it reflect consensus?

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

中日韓"旅遊部長級會議"是形式還是共識？

中日韓近期在日本神戶共同舉辦的"旅遊部長級會議"，是徒具形式的多邊會議嗎？海擇資本認為並不是。首先，三方在會前已有善意互動；其次，會中所討論的合作措施也有可行性。在中美劍拔弩張，而中國有裡由視日韓為美國軍事附庸的當下，雖然東亞火藥庫的風險越來越濃，但該會議不啻以旅遊為切入點，為東亞的地緣政治環境，取得和平的最大公約數。

近期中國、日本、韓國三國的部長級代表，在日本神戶舉行為期兩天的"第十屆中日韓旅遊部長級會議”，該會議曾議定一年一會，但此前在韓國仁川舉行的第九屆會議已在疫情前，第十屆檯面上因為COVID-19遲遲未定，但由於日韓在政治/軍事上靠緊美國，中韓關係曾因薩德導彈事件陷入冰點，中日關係歷經"安保三文件"修正與核污水事件，也不順遂。那麼，問題來了，所謂的"旅遊部長級會議"會像許多中美會議在"坦率"、"直接"的措辭後繼續相敬如冰嗎？

海擇資本認為並非如此，這可以從兩點判斷。首先，從今年中國赴日韓的旅客人次來看，上升趨勢頗為陡峭，中國赴日旅客已超過韓國成為最大客源地，中國赴韓旅客在Q1已有超過101萬名，僅較2019年同期略低16%，成為韓國入境遊客的最大客源地。考慮到政策面能對出行確有推波助瀾影響，會議前交流氛圍已屬善意；而2025年大阪關西世博會、第九屆中國哈爾濱亞洲冬運會、中國成都世運會與2027年日本橫濱世界園藝博覽會，會是後續的觀察指標。

其次，從會議結論的可行性來看，三國部長討論了三個領域的合作措施，包括：COVID-19後的旅遊交流、共建可持續旅遊業、提高旅遊交流品質。聯合聲明並具體記載要共同規劃低碳旅遊產品、無障礙旅遊環境、防止過度旅遊、防止強行推銷劣質旅遊產品，這些都不算太難執行的議題。

先將難解的軍事與地緣政治問題置旁不論，東北亞三國都面臨著低出生率的共同挑戰。振興旅遊業能促進各地經濟增長，創造更多就業機會，吸引年輕人回流或定居，從而提高家庭對生育的信心，並帶動出生率，國家挑戰迎刃而解。同時，旅遊成為三國都認同的最大公約數，這也是眾所矚目的和平鴿。

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Haize Capital Insights of the Day

Is the "Ministerial Conference on Tourism" between China, Japan, and South Korea merely formal, or does it reflect consensus?

The recent "Ministerial Conference on Tourism" held by China, Japan, and South Korea in Kobe, Japan, is not just a formal multilateral meeting, according to Haize Capital. First, the three parties had positive interactions before the meeting. Second, the cooperation measures discussed are feasible. Amid rising geopolitical tensions in East Asia, this meeting uses tourism as an entry point to find a common ground for peace in the region.

Recently, ministerial-level representatives from China, Japan, and South Korea held the "10th China-Japan-South Korea Ministerial Conference on Tourism" over two days in Kobe, Japan. The conference was originally scheduled to take place annually, but due to COVID-19, the 10th conference had been delayed since the 9th meeting in Incheon, South Korea, before the pandemic. Given Japan and South Korea's closer political and military ties with the U.S., and the tensions between China and South Korea over the THAAD missile incident, along with strained China-Japan relations over the "security documents" revision and nuclear wastewater issue, one might wonder whether this tourism meeting will follow the path of many China-U.S. meetings, which maintain a cold relationship despite claims of "frank" and "direct" exchanges.

Haize Capital believes this is not the case, and this can be judged from two points. First, China's outbound tourism to Japan and South Korea has shown a sharp upward trend this year. Chinese tourists to Japan have surpassed those to South Korea, making China the largest source of tourists to Japan. In Q1 alone, over 1.01 million Chinese tourists visited South Korea, just 16% lower than the same period in 2019, making China the top source of inbound tourists to South Korea. Considering policy changes that can boost travel, the atmosphere before the conference was already positive. Events such as the 2025 Osaka Expo, the 9th Asian Winter Games in Harbin, China, the Chengdu World University Games, and the 2027 Yokohama World Horticultural Exposition will be key indicators to observe.

Second, the feasibility of the conference’s conclusions shows promise. The ministers discussed cooperation in three areas: post-COVID-19 tourism exchanges, building a sustainable tourism industry, and improving the quality of tourism exchanges. The joint statement specifically mentioned plans to develop low-carbon tourism products, create accessible tourism environments, prevent over-tourism, and stop the forced sale of low-quality tourism products. These are not particularly difficult goals to achieve.

Setting aside the more challenging military and geopolitical issues, all three Northeast Asian countries face the common challenge of low birth rates. Revitalizing the tourism industry can promote economic growth, create more jobs, and attract young people to return or settle in the region, thereby boosting confidence in raising families and increasing birth rates. Tourism has become the greatest common denominator for the three countries, serving as a symbol of peace.

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