組團社報復性旅遊潮回歸常態之後
After the revenge travel surge of group travel agencies returns to normal

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

組團社報復性旅遊潮回歸常態之後

隨著2024年的時序邁入Q4，在Q3完整財報放榜之前，各上市公司也陸續披露先期數據。從台灣與韓國兩地的核心組團旅行社雄獅旅遊與HanaTour來看，有共通的趨勢，但分野也逐漸明確。

雄獅旅遊(TPE: 2731)2024Q2合併財報收入74.2億台幣(約2.31億美金)，達2019年同期的92%，較2023年成長35%；營業利潤3.68億台幣(約1,143萬美金)，相比2019年虧轉盈，較2023年成長71%，可理解為已擺脫疫情以來的困境。依2024.10.15當地證交所收盤價，雄獅旅遊市值122億台幣，約3.79億美金。

HanaTour(KRX: 039130)於2024Q2合併財報收入1,317億韓元(約9,693萬美金)，為2019年同期的68%；營業利潤36.7億韓元(約270萬美金)，較2019年增長0.8%，雖然收入仍不及疫情前，但盈利能力已與此前相仿。2019Q2收入為1,937億韓元(約1.43億美金)，營業利潤為36.4億韓元(約268萬美金)。依2024.10.15當地證交所收盤價，HanaTour市值7,915億韓元，約5.82億美金。

值得注意的是，按照目前披露的數據，兩家大社的暑期旺季（Q3）都沒有預期旺。雖然從年化看來，目前公告的團隊出行人次或收入都能有超過35%的增長；但若與上一季（Q2）相比，增長則出現停滯。雄獅旅遊先行披露的數據是月營收，Q3收入為80.2億台幣，僅較Q2成長8%；HanaTour先行披露的數據出行人次，總數88.6萬人次，較Q2成長13%，但若單看出團人數（不計入所售出機票），總數為49.5萬人次，僅較Q2增長3%。

海擇資本認為，有三個趨勢正在發生：

1.  報復性旅遊潮回歸常態：從暑假開始，台韓兩地組團社的報復性旅遊潮正在快速回歸常態。今年台灣雄獅QoQ的收入增速與韓國HanaTour的出團人數增速都低於10%，但觀察2023年的同期，Q2到Q3的增速都超過30%，更有旺季的感受。雖說回歸常態，但現在的常態是否是下一階段的峰值，目前恐怕還難以斷定。

2.  日本以外的新目的地正在出現：以韓國HanaTour為例，雖然Q3的總出團人數還有3%的增速，但自後疫情飽受歡迎的日本目的地，今年以來出行人次已持續減少。HanaTour團隊遊輸送到日本的人數在Q1、Q2、Q3，分別為16.4萬人、14.3萬人、12.9萬人。韓國另一家上市組團社ModeTour的減幅更為劇烈。相比之下，輸送到中國的人數則持續增加，從Q1的4.0萬人到Q3的超過8萬人，增長翻倍。

3.  2019的榮光難再：即便後疫情期增長迅速，但距離恢復到疫情前的送客規模仍有很大差距。HanaTour今年1月至7月的跟團旅遊累計送客數量為123.3萬人次，而2019年同期的送客數量為197.0萬人次，僅達當年的63%。這個趨勢既與韓國人出境總人數降低的宏觀環境有關，也與OTA在疫情間快速蠶食組團社客源的微觀現象有關，這點在日本的組團社也同步發生，而且影響更為劇烈，值得亞洲旅遊同業作為借鑑。

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Haize Capital Insights of the Day

After the revenge travel surge of group travel agencies returns to normal

As we enter Q4 of 2024, prior to the release of the full Q3 financial reports, many publicly listed companies have started disclosing preliminary data. From the core group travel agencies in Taiwan and South Korea, namely Lion Travel and HanaTour, there are shared trends, though clear distinctions are also emerging.

Lion Travel (TPE: 2731) reported consolidated revenue of NTD 7.42 billion (approximately USD 231 million) for Q2 2024, reaching 92% of the same period in 2019, and growing 35% compared to 2023. Its operating profit was NTD 368 million (approximately USD 11.43 million), showing a turnaround from a loss in 2019 to profitability, with a 71% increase over 2023, indicating recovery from the pandemic’s challenges. As of the closing price on 2024.10.15, Lion Travel’s market value stood at NTD 12.2 billion, approximately USD 379 million.

HanaTour (KRX: 039130) reported consolidated revenue of KRW 131.7 billion (approximately USD 96.93 million) for Q2 2024, representing 68% of the same period in 2019. Operating profit was KRW 3.67 billion (approximately USD 2.7 million), a 0.8% increase compared to 2019. Although revenue has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, profitability is comparable to the past. In Q2 2019, revenue was KRW 193.7 billion (approximately USD 143 million), and operating profit was KRW 3.64 billion (approximately USD 2.68 million). As of the closing price on 2024.10.15, HanaTour’s market value stood at KRW 791.5 billion, approximately USD 582 million.

Notably, based on the currently disclosed data, both major agencies experienced a less-than-expected peak during the summer season (Q3). Although year-over-year growth rates in group travel passenger numbers and revenue exceed 35%, quarter-over-quarter growth has stagnated. Lion Travel’s preliminary monthly revenue for Q3 was NTD 8.02 billion, only 8% higher than Q2. HanaTour’s preliminary total outbound passenger number for Q3 was 886,000, growing 13% compared to Q2, but when excluding individual air ticket sales, the total group travel passengers were 495,000, only 3% higher than Q2.

Haize Capital believes that three trends are emerging:

1. Revenge Travel Surge Returning to Normal: Starting from the summer, the revenge travel surge in Taiwan and South Korea’s group travel markets is quickly returning to normal. Both Lion Travel’s QoQ revenue growth and HanaTour’s group travel passenger growth in Q3 are below 10%, compared to over 30% growth from Q2 to Q3 in 2023, which felt more like a peak season. Although the trend seems to be normalizing, it is still uncertain whether the current normal will be the peak of the next phase.

2. New Destinations Emerging Beyond Japan: For HanaTour, although total group travel passengers still grew by 3% in Q3, the once popular post-pandemic destination of Japan has seen a continued decline in passenger numbers this year. HanaTour’s group tours to Japan recorded 164,000 passengers in Q1, 143,000 in Q2, and 129,000 in Q3. The decline was even more pronounced for ModeTour, another publicly listed Korean group travel agency. In contrast, group travel to China continues to rise, with passenger numbers doubling from 40,000 in Q1 to over 80,000 in Q3.

3. The Glory of 2019 is Hard to Recapture: Even though the post-pandemic growth has been rapid, the scale of group travel has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. HanaTour’s cumulative group travel passengers from January to July 2024 totaled 1.233 million, only 63% of the 1.97 million passengers recorded in the same period in 2019. This trend is tied to the broader decline in the total number of outbound Korean travelers, as well as the microtrend of OTAs rapidly eating into group travel agencies’ customer bases during the pandemic, a phenomenon that also occurred in Japan, where the impact was even more severe. This is something that the Asian travel industry should take note of.