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海擇短評 Haize Comment：
從本期Booking財報，投資人/創業者能看到什麼機會？
住宿平台只有個位數8%的年間夜增長率，這算強勁嗎？--算，如果它一個季度能產出3億間夜的話。
上句話談的正是Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)的三季度財報。2024年的Booking變得不一樣了，今年它在歷史上首次出現低於5%的間夜增速預期，這並不會因為季報結算超預期而煙消雲散，因為明年再次上演的概率很高，Q3季報也確認了Booking從增長型公司走向價值型公司的趨勢。而在轉變的過程中，間夜增速會比以前低，但盈利效率會比以前好，看起來員工還會更幸福(從平均薪資來看)。我們若以公司的四大戰略(增加替代住宿、增加直銷通路、增強會員Genius產品以及推動其他旅行垂直領域的互聯旅行)為經，亞洲、歐洲、美國、世界其他地區等四個地域為緯，可以大致判定Booking在每個戰區的進退得失。財務層面的深入解析已有，這次海擇資本來談談能從Booking本季財報可以看到的四個旅遊投資/創業機會。
1. Booking沒有壓制能力的旅遊領域還有很多：本季度Booking的四大事業分別如下，住宿、機票、租車、互聯旅行(connected trip)，其產量(volume)分別為2.99億、2,300萬、1,300萬、總產量的個位數百分比，年增率分別為8.1%、16.2%、38.7%、超過40%；如果從GMV的年增速角度看， 機票和租車增速僅9%。Glenn說明機票、租車、互聯旅行的成長率均優於預期，反過來說，那就是，即便住宿以外的事業與住宿事業有一個量級或多個量級的差異，現有的兩位數增速估計已經是上限，無法對應Booking在住宿領域的統治能力。從另外一個角度來看，這些領域看來要嘛有著Booing難以顛覆的細分領域王者，要嘛就是仍有機會的空白市場，特別是到現在還沒被Booking列為財報公告數據的"互聯旅行"(其實各OTA也都沒有)。這個領域的投資/創業者除了傳統的退出方式，還多了被巨頭收購的機會。
2. 歐美OTA血戰告終：近年同為千億美元市值的OTA大戰，就是以傳統住宿為主的Booking對戰以替代住宿為主的Airbnb(NASDAQ: ABNB)，近期Booking市值升近1,600億美元，Airbnb市值則跌至800億美元，市值是一種評估成敗的方式。具體看運營面，本季Booking在替代住宿領域的間夜成長率為 14%、總間夜佔比為35%。也就是說，結合去年同期公告，本季傳統住宿(Hotel)的增長剛好是5%，與原本預期一致，替代住宿的增長讓Booking的間夜增速多了80%，而這個間夜量已達市場最大玩家(Airbnb)的三分之二；反觀之，Airbnb雖然也覆蓋傳統住宿，但這部分的間夜產量就對Booking談不上威脅。這也可以理解為什麼Airbnb從Q2開始，積極推廣一些Booking不會做的產品，比如長租與(庫存量少而稀缺的)玩樂產品，因為現有邊界被Booking侵蝕得太嚴重，而且基本沒有對策，增長就去賭Booking不願意做的長尾產品。當然我們不會忘記另一個來自美國的重要玩家Expedia(NASDAQ: EXPE)，本期Booking間夜在美國的增長為低個位數，如果連Booking都只有個位數，當地生態不會太好，Expedia出境更打不過Booking與Airbnb。旅遊競爭版圖更新後各自的投資價值不言可喻。
亞洲是Booking的重要市場，從第三季按地區劃分的間夜成長率來看，亞洲年增兩位數，歐洲為高個位數，世界其他地區為中個位數。所以，如果說產品面帶動Booking增速的是替代住宿；地域面帶動Booking增速的就是亞洲。從競爭格局來看，Booking集團通過經營兩個互補的品牌：Agoda和Booking.com，在亞洲新興市場也相對暢行無阻。但即便中國的攜程、韓國的Yanolja、日本的Rakuten Travel與印度的MakeMyTrip，在各自境內能壓制Booking集團的雙品牌，但在亞洲的國際化市場仍有所不如。
3. 生成式AI的大者恆大趨勢：Booking本季也披露了生成式AI在不同集團子公司、不同產品型態，甚至不同工作崗位的運用，從Booking.com、Priceline、Agoda、KAYAK到OpenTable，從行程規劃、智慧過濾器、分銷商專用的聊天機器人到價格比較工具，從客戶服務、供應商服務、軟體開發、內容產生、產品設計、財務流程到人力資源領域，不一而足。從微觀看，KAYAK的獨創性與延展性特別高，既有旅客能使用自由格式的行程規劃工具，旅客也僅以上傳螢幕截圖就能做價格比較。從宏觀上更值得重視的是，誠然，生成式AI能對旅客的用戶體驗做這麼大的改善，但對創業公司來說，以token計費的API對接模式將導致沒有幾家創業公司最終能負擔屬於自己個性特色的用戶體驗工具，即便現在可以從ChatGPT、Gemini、Claude中挑便宜的選用，長期來看我們認為token單價還會漲，而且是大漲，最終這會讓生成式AI的運用變成大者恆大的工具，Booking這類付得起錢的集團能產生很大的效益，但旅遊新創公司則是窮得用不起複雜的大語言服務，投資人也不會會願意陪葬。
4. 你屬於要增速還是要印鈔機的投資人
Booking今年直接間接的告訴我們它增速不再的事實。比如，它的員工數在2023Q3增加了13%，而今年同期只增加3%；而雖然亞洲區是Booking最重要的戰略市場，而未來五年它看亞洲旅遊行業的成長僅有高個位數水準，當然Booking會比行業好，但Booking的基數也已經很大。不過，它會適合特定流派的投資人，某些投資人喜歡收入增速巨大、高影響力的公司，類似拚多多，那麼Booking不適合；有的投資人喜歡淨利能賺大錢的公司，毛利不高的訂單讓給競爭對手也無妨，那麼Booking是很理想的工具，以Q3來說，交易額年增8%、收入年增9%、調整後EBITDA年增12%，EPS年增更達增長16%(因為公司會買回股票註銷降低股本)，1股還將配息8.75美元，真正堪稱印鈔機無疑。
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Haize Capital Insights of the Day
From Booking's recent earnings report, what opportunities can investors and entrepreneurs identify?
Is a single-digit 8% annual growth rate in room-nights impressive? Yes, if it equates to generating 300 million room-nights in one quarter.
The above statement pertains to Booking’s Q3 earnings report (NASDAQ: BKNG). Booking in 2024 has shown signs of shifting from a growth-oriented to a value-oriented company, with a projected room-nights growth rate below 5% for the first time. This trend is likely to continue into next year, emphasizing a shift from high growth to improved profit efficiency. This evolution is marked by reduced growth in nights booked but higher profitability and a potentially happier workforce (reflected in higher average wages). Viewing the company’s four strategies—expanding alternative accommodations, increasing direct sales channels, enhancing the Genius membership program, and integrating other travel verticals—across Asia, Europe, the Americas, and other regions can help assess Booking’s strategic positioning and effectiveness in each market. While media coverage has extensively analyzed the financials, Haize Capital explores four entrepreneurial and investment opportunities presented by Booking’s recent report.
1. Many untapped travel segments for Booking: Booking’s primary businesses include accommodations, flights, car rentals, and connected trips, with volumes of 299 million, 23 million, 13 million, and a single-digit percentage of total volumes, respectively. The annual growth rates are 8.1%, 16.2%, 38.7%, and over 40%. While flights and car rentals grow at a 9% annual rate in GMV, the current two-digit growth rates may represent the ceiling for segments other than accommodations. Opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors arise in these sectors, especially in connected trips, which are not yet reported separately in earnings but present potential acquisition opportunities for startups targeting this space.
2. The intense OTA competition in Western markets is subsiding: The multibillion-dollar OTA competition between accommodation-focused Booking and alternative accommodation-focused Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) has settled with Booking’s market cap nearing $160 billion while Airbnb’s has declined to $80 billion. This quarter, Booking’s nights in alternative accommodations grew by 14%, accounting for 35% of total nights. Meanwhile, Airbnb’s share of traditional accommodations remains non-threatening to Booking. In response, Airbnb is focusing on long-term rentals and exclusive experiences, where Booking has little presence. Although Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) is another key player, Booking’s single-digit growth in the US suggests a competitive market with little headroom. Asia, where Booking reported double-digit growth, primarily drives its international growth through its dual brands, Agoda and Booking.com.
3. Generative AI’s scale advantage: Booking’s report highlights the extensive integration of generative AI across its brands, including Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable. Applications range from itinerary planning and filtering to price comparison and chatbots. KAYAK, for instance, offers flexible trip planning tools and price comparison through screenshot uploads. While generative AI improves customer experience significantly, it comes at a cost, especially as token prices are likely to rise, potentially making these tools accessible only to large players. Booking can afford such investments, but smaller travel startups may struggle to fund advanced language models, limiting their competitiveness.
4. Are you a growth-focused or a cash machine-focused investor? Booking has signaled its shift away from high growth; its headcount increased 13% in Q3 2023, compared to 3% last year. While Asia remains a key growth market, Booking projects only high single-digit growth for the Asian travel industry over the next five years. This shift might suit investors interested in stable cash-generating companies. In Q3, Booking’s transaction volume grew by 8%, revenue by 9%, adjusted EBITDA by 12%, and EPS by 16% (thanks to stock buybacks). With a dividend of $8.75 per share, Booking continues to serve as a reliable cash-generating investment.
標籤 Label： EXPE BKNG ABNB MMYT TCOM Booking.com Trip.com Yanolja MakeMyTrip Airbnb Expedia RakutenTravel ConnectedTrip AlternativeAccommodation