OTA跟餐廳訂位公司合作是個好棋嗎？
Is Collaboration Between OTAs and Restaurant Reservation Platforms a Strategic Move?

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

OTA跟餐廳訂位公司合作是個好棋嗎？

OTA跟餐廳訂位公司的合作，對誰更有利？為什麼Booking跟Tripadvisor旗下的訂位公司似乎沒有爆發式的進展？以日本目的地來看，相關公司在行業層面與資本層面會有什麼企圖心？海擇資本嘗試簡化談談這個議題。

近期台灣當地玩樂類OTA"KKday"與日本餐廳內容暨訂位公司"Tabelog"合作，KKday嘗試將台灣為主的旅遊客源導入Tabelog覆蓋的普通型餐廳商戶，除了交易產生的佣金收入外，KKday嘗試更深入日本供應商體系，為日後東證上市後的釋股做準備，Tabelog則通過帶給普通型餐廳商戶更多客流，嘗試在與配送平台的競爭中奪回部分失土。從歷史看，雙方都難言有必勝的把握，但至少敗了也沒有損失。

旅遊所覆蓋的餐飲市場有多大？這與國家本身的旅遊屬性及餐飲行業的成熟度都有關。若以台灣及日本為例，目前行業研究大體顯示．本地消費佔台灣餐飲市場的80%-85%以上，而國際遊客消費佔比在15%以內；日本因為更為國際化，餐飲的國際佔比更大，國際遊客的消費約佔25%-30%，本地消費約佔比在70%-75%左右。多數報告是以信用卡消費數據統計，可能會同時低估分子與分母，但仍有參考價值。KKday做為平台，嘗試提供Tabelog(食べログ)原本難以覆蓋的旅遊客源增量，算是合理的舉措。

KKday：行業層面－進有功、退無過

雖然從邏輯上看，OTA與餐廳訂位平台是很互補的結合，但從行業層面看，過往這類合作的結果都沒有很理想的增速。Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)收購Open Table後，並沒有特別披露餐飲事業當數據，只把它當成互聯旅行的其中一個垂直行業；Tripadvisor(NASDAQ: TRIP)將TheFork當成第三條收入增長曲線，但增長談不上強勁；攜程(NASDAQ: TCOM)收購的訂餐小秘書已經消失在歷史洪流中，美食林距離在財報單獨披露業務數據還很遙遠。我們認為這與消費頻率及行業跨度都有關係，餐飲行業最大的需求還是來自於本地客源，OTA能提供少部分境外客源作為增量，但本業還是對本地客源的經營，OTA無法為大量餐廳提供關鍵助力。不過，KKday作為當地玩樂領域的OTA，相對住宿領域OTA及一站式OTA距離餐飲更近些，理論上轉化率會比其它OTA高，後續值得觀察。

資本層面－切合後IPO佈局

從資本層面看，雖然此前美系投行放棄承銷KKday，其IPO時間較此前延後，但KKday以東證市場為IPO的方向不會改變。也就是說，KKday在IPO後，還得為大股東在禁售期滿的售股做準備，長期來看，日本的散戶股民仍然會是主要的潛在買家，因此與日本當地人民的連結有必要加深。此前KKday從H.I.S手中收購的Activity Japan看起來對日本客源的滲透不能算理想，餐飲業整體產業鏈所覆蓋的供應商及客戶數量級遠超過旅遊行業，如果能成為日本餐飲業都能家喻戶曉的客源供應商，從投資人關係的角度看不會有壞處。

Tabelog：行業層面－重塑對商戶的價值

此前海擇觀點談過，日本的兩大餐飲內容平台Gurunavi(ぐるなび)與Tabelog在後疫情後復甦得比行業慢，在餐飲與旅遊相關公司早早轉盈後，兩家公司迄2024Q1才轉盈。看似不可思議，但其實與其商業模式息息相關。Gurunavi與Tabelog的商業模式，本質上都是以內容宣傳為本業的廣告公司，訂餐/訂位只是提供給餐廳商戶的配套服務；而位於金字塔頂端、不缺客源的高端餐廳或米其林餐廳．可能還不太需要它們的服務，因此主要客戶為大量缺乏客源的低知名度商戶。這個模式本身沒有問題，因為這類商戶數量級夠大，但疫情後這類商戶都必須面對"預算投放"的選擇。也就是說，如果預算有限，該投放給外賣配送平台還是內容/訂位平台？外賣配送平台雖然抽佣高，但有成交才有佣金，而投放內容平台可不一定有訂單；而且外賣配送平台也有自己的促銷方案，能覆蓋內容平台價值；此外，選擇與外賣配送平台合作後，可能不一定有預算給內容平台，因為配送費用、包裝成本、技術服務費、促銷費用、退款和投訴處理成本加起來並不少。從結果來看，Uber Eats、出前館(Demae-can)與menu這些日本本地的外賣平臺，部分取代了Gurunavi與Tabelog這類內容平台的價值。Tabelog嘗試用旅游客源重塑對商戶的價值，成功率待觀望，但一樣是進有功、退無過。

資本層面－或影響細分板塊競合

日本餐飲業版圖中的訂餐/訂位市場，有個有趣的現象，那就是4.2萬家的本地客源(曾經)養不活Gurunavi與Tabelog，但800家米其林餐廳的國際客源卻養得活一眾預訂平台式的創業公司，比如OMAKASE, Tourcandy, byFood，而且活得還可以。當然這樣的比較不公平，兩類業者的規模不同、產品不同、經營者"上岸"後的動力也不同。不過，會導致如此結果的主要原因是，不缺客源的高端/網紅餐廳或米其林餐廳雖然常在內容資訊平台缺席，但卻樂於與一些專做國際旅客訂餐/訂位的創業公司合作，一方面因為這些餐廳基於運營保障，常常有自己的標準、預付款模式和嚴格的No-Show政策，創業公司能予配合；另外一方面也基於疫情前就有的長期互動，雙方有更好的信任感，甚至不乏共創獨占式商品。一旦內容資訊平台能對國際旅客有龐大的影響力，未來有可能顛覆現有格局，取代或是收購現有的創業公司。

歸根究柢來說，OTA跟餐廳訂位公司合作的觀察點在於，境外OTA究竟能為內容資訊平台傳統控有的低知名度商戶帶來多大貢獻。如果能成功，就能形成一個新的模式並擴大市場規模；如果不行，這塊市場也已有許多創業豺狼血眼以待。

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Haize Capital Insights of the Day

Is Collaboration Between OTAs and Restaurant Reservation Platforms a Strategic Move?

Who benefits more from the collaboration between OTAs and restaurant reservation companies? Why haven't Booking and Tripadvisor's reservation subsidiaries seen explosive growth? How might related companies in Japan strategize at industry and capital levels? Haize Capital attempts to simplify this discussion.

Recently, the Taiwan-based activities-focused OTA "KKday" partnered with Japan’s restaurant content and reservation company "Tabelog". KKday aims to channel Taiwanese tourist traffic to Tabelog’s covered standard restaurant merchants. Beyond the commission income generated from transactions, KKday is seeking a deeper integration into the Japanese supply chain in preparation for share offerings following its anticipated IPO on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. For Tabelog, the partnership brings additional traffic to standard restaurants, as it aims to reclaim some market share lost to delivery platforms. Historically, neither party can claim guaranteed success from such collaborations, but the upside is that neither faces significant risk from failure.

How Large is the Dining Market Covered by Tourism?

The size of the dining market driven by tourism depends on a country’s tourism attributes and the maturity of its dining industry. In Taiwan and Japan, industry studies broadly show that local consumption accounts for over 80-85% of Taiwan's dining market, with international tourist spending at less than 15%. In Japan, with its more globalized market, international tourists contribute around 25-30% of the dining revenue, with local spending covering 70-75%. While most reports use credit card data, which might underestimate both numerator and denominator, these figures remain useful for reference. As a platform, KKday's effort to provide Tabelog with additional tourist traffic that was previously hard to reach is a sensible move.

KKday: Industry Aspect - Advancing with Gains, Retreating without Loss

Though the combination of OTAs and restaurant reservation platforms seems complementary, past industry outcomes indicate that such collaborations have not achieved impressive growth rates. After Booking (NASDAQ: BKNG) acquired OpenTable, it did not prominently disclose dining sector data, viewing it as one vertical within the broader travel ecosystem. Tripadvisor (NASDAQ: TRIP) treats TheFork as its third revenue growth stream, but its growth has been moderate. Ctrip’s acquired "Dianping Assistant" has faded from relevance, and Meishilin remains far from disclosing business data separately in its financial reports. We believe this is related to consumption frequency and industry segmentation. Most demand in the dining industry still stems from local consumers. OTAs can provide some additional foreign customer base but cannot offer critical support for large numbers of restaurants focused on local patrons. However, as an OTA in the local experiences sector, KKday is closer to the dining industry than accommodation-focused OTAs and general-purpose OTAs, suggesting a potentially higher conversion rate than other OTAs—a development worth observing in the future.

Capital Aspect – Aligning with IPO Plans

From a capital perspective, while KKday’s IPO timeline has been delayed after American investment banks withdrew from underwriting, its focus on a Tokyo Stock Exchange listing remains unchanged. Post-IPO, KKday will still need to prepare for share sales once the lock-up period ends, meaning that in the long term, Japan’s retail investors are likely to be its primary target buyers. Thus, strengthening connections with the Japanese public is essential. KKday’s previous acquisition of Activity Japan from H.I.S has shown limited success in penetrating the Japanese customer base. The dining industry, however, has a vastly larger network of suppliers and customers than the travel sector. If KKday can establish itself as a well-known customer source for Japan’s restaurant industry, it would be beneficial from an investor relations standpoint.

Tabelog: Industry Aspect – Redefining Value for Merchants

Previously, Haize Capital noted that Japan’s two leading dining content platforms, Gurunavi (ぐるなび) and Tabelog, have experienced a slower recovery post-pandemic compared to the broader industry. While other dining and travel-related companies returned to profitability much earlier, these two only reached profitability by Q1 2024. This seemingly surprising delay is deeply tied to their business model. Both Gurunavi and Tabelog operate primarily as advertising companies, with content promotion as their core service, while restaurant reservations/bookings are merely supplementary services for their merchants. High-end or Michelin-starred restaurants at the top of the pyramid, which don’t lack for customers, may have little need for their services, making the platforms’ main clients lesser-known establishments that struggle to attract diners. This model is not flawed in itself since there are plenty of such establishments, but post-pandemic, these clients now face decisions about “budget allocation.”

In other words, with limited budgets, should they invest in delivery platforms or content/reservation platforms? While delivery platforms have higher commissions, they charge only if a sale occurs, whereas advertising on content platforms may not guarantee orders. Moreover, delivery platforms offer their own promotions, often covering what content platforms provide. Choosing to work with delivery platforms can leave little to no budget for content platforms, as costs for delivery fees, packaging, technology services, promotions, refunds, and complaints add up significantly. As a result, platforms like Uber Eats, Demae-can, and menu have partially supplanted the value that content platforms like Gurunavi and Tabelog once held. Tabelog’s attempt to redefine its value to merchants with tourist traffic is a sensible move, although the outcome remains uncertain; regardless, it presents low risk with potential gains.

Capital Aspect – Possible Impact on Segment-Specific Competition

A fascinating phenomenon in Japan’s restaurant reservation market is that the local market of 42,000 dining establishments struggled to sustain platforms like Gurunavi and Tabelog, whereas international clientele from just 800 Michelin-starred restaurants have enabled various reservation startups, such as OMAKASE, Tourcandy, and byFood, to thrive. Admittedly, this comparison is imperfect due to differences in scale, product offerings, and post-revenue motivations between operators. However, a key reason behind this outcome is that popular high-end or Michelin-starred restaurants, which are often absent from general content platforms, prefer to collaborate with reservation startups focused on international tourists. This is due in part to these restaurants’ operational standards, prepaid reservation requirements, and strict no-show policies, all of which these startups accommodate. Additionally, the long-standing interactions pre-pandemic have fostered trust, and even exclusive product partnerships. Should content platforms gain significant influence over international tourists in the future, they could potentially disrupt the current landscape, replacing or acquiring these startups.

Ultimately, the key observation in collaborations between OTAs and restaurant reservation companies lies in the extent to which foreign OTAs can contribute to content platforms by attracting traffic to low-visibility merchants. Success could lead to a new model and an expanded market. If not, this segment has no shortage of eager startups waiting to seize the opportunity.

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