Trump就職對旅遊相關投資的幾個可能影響
Potential Impacts of Trump's Presidency on Tourism-Related Investments

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

Trump就職對旅遊相關投資的幾個可能影響

旅遊政策並不是Donald Trump被選任美國總統的核心要素，但基於Trump一貫強調的貿易平衡原則與過往任期推動的旅遊政策，可以推測其就職後可能的施政走向。海擇資本從”美國人國內旅遊”、”外國人入境美國旅遊”、”美國旅遊企業出海”三個方向，思考Trump的旅遊政策如何兼顧美國優先與技術創新，又如何在簽證發放與商業監管取得平衡，進而推論諸般作為對旅遊投資產生的影響。

“探索美國”將成國內旅遊指導原則

從”美國人國內旅遊”角度看，Trump的政策旨在通過推廣美國作為旅遊目的地，鼓勵美國人探索本國的自然風光、文化和歷史遺產；一定程度上，可以理解為中國在2004年所推動”紅色旅遊”的加強版。2020年，Trump曾推動”探索美國稅收抵免(Explore America Tax Credit)”法案，該提案未能通過國會。本屆Trump一統參/眾議院，我們認為類似“探索美國”之類的法案不僅會續推，規模還會增大，比如同時延伸給到消費者(家庭、學生)與企業(餐廳、航司、酒店、郵輪公司和景區)補貼；特別在經濟困難地區(如農村和小鎮)，還會結合旅遊基礎設施投資，以旅遊消費帶動當地經濟收入。

當地巨頭或將主導技術創新

Trump前任期曾簽署對Brand USA(美國旅遊推廣機構)的資金再授權法案("Extension of Travel Promotion Act of 2009")。該機構定位類似各國的旅遊局，但不隸屬於政府，為非營利組織，它拿政府的錢，但不是只拿政府的錢；董事會成員涵蓋凱悅酒店集團(NYSE: H)、達美航空(NYSE: DAL)、Expedia(NASDAQ: EXPE)與迪士尼集團(NYSE: DIS)的領導層。未來美國旅遊行業升級，除了需要基建，也需要提升旅遊科技，特別是在支付、社交行銷與資料處理層面。Trump可能會倚重Brand USA或新建類似組織，這類組織的董事會(或決策群)成員的技術能力雖不是全球頂尖，甚至談不上美國頂尖，但他們的意見會被尊重，甚至能主導技術的投資與導入。

旅遊簽證議題有平衡策略

Trump會將簽證政策收緊已是共識。從”外國人入境美國旅遊”的角度看，Trump的對中簽證政策會特別尷尬。首先，按照美國國土安全部資料，2021年約有54%的非法移民屬於非法越境，未經授權從美墨邊境等地進入美國；但也有約46%的非法移民屬於簽證逾期，亦即簽證到期後未離境，成為非法滯留者。通過邊境管控處理非法越境能很快加強，其後處理簽證逾期勢將成為焦點，因此必須收緊簽證政策。中國不是赴美非法移民的大宗(2022年為1.9%)，但是政治正確會讓它看起來像。但從貿易平衡的角度看，2019年(疫前)中國遊客在美國的消費總額約150億美元，人均消費4,137美元，雖然疫後的復蘇進程屬緩慢，但仍比美國遊客在中國的消費總額及人均消費高，收緊簽證會惡化相關收入。考慮到後續在關稅等議題會與中國再起矛盾，將客源焦點轉向歐洲、日韓等地遊客作為替代市場，是必要手段，但最好是能區分出一批高消費能力的中國遊客。我們認為，最後可能會提出針對商務遊客或高端遊客的特殊簽證類別，比如以”文化”為名的新簽證，這還能對內宣傳中國遊客孺慕美國文化。從這個角度看，研學旅遊的方向不會變，但可能出現新的細分市場。

基礎建設投資可能帶動美歐合資

Trump將投資基礎設施，以支援旅遊業，目前看來以交通建設為主，會涵蓋增建高速公路、更新機場、擴建鐵路和地鐵，這能使國內旅遊更便捷，間接促進旅遊業。基建類投資還能創造大量就業機會，從參與基建的受惠業者看，由於全球TOP10市值的基建集團都在中國，而美國不會願意讓中國參與，這對中美雙方都很遺憾。而這會帶給後列公司增長機會，比如西班牙ACS集團(ACS Group, BME: ACS)或法國萬喜集團(Vinci SA, DG: EPA)。雖然市值規模不如中國，但歐洲也有一批基建類公司，這可能會帶來一波美歐合資、參與美國基建的新機會。

美國境內巨頭強者更強

從”美國旅遊企業出海”角度看，Trump過往政策傾向於放鬆管制，以協助國內旅遊企業增長，我們認為這會體現在放鬆創新科技的安全、究責與反壟斷監管上，因為一些企業認為這些法規限制其增長，特別是在自動駕駛、eVTOL和OTA等行業。降低限制會造成美國境內巨頭強者更強現象，經由收購可能造就更全面的巨頭，試想Booking在AI的應用深度結合Tripadvisor(NASDAQ: TRIP)海量評論後的可能發展。其後，可以想見Trump要求各國放寬對美國企業和旅遊服務的市場准入後，將在中國市場會有不一樣的結果。即便中國國務院今年提出”推進高水準對外開放更大力度吸引和利用外資行動方案”，對外資進一步開放，但實際上外資旅遊業在中國難以開展，不全是政策面的鍋，價格/服務競爭與用戶使用習慣的影響也很大，Booking(NASDAQ: BKNG)與Airbnb(NASDAQ: ABNB)此前鎩羽而歸就是例子。不過，美國旅遊企業難以在中國立足盈利，也會影響美國遊客入境中國，連帶讓新旅遊協議、航班數量/直航航線的拓展也受到限制。

本土與跨國旅遊企業走向兩套標準

Trump高概率會放寬ESG相關的可持續性要求，特別是碳排放部分。這會吸引一些成本導向的投資者，尤其是尋求高回報、對環保要求敏感的資本，例如傳統酒店、遊樂園開發商等，他們可能將美國視為一個“成本較低”的旅遊投資市場。不過，儘管美國本土玩家的壓力減輕，但走向國際市場一樣會面臨限制，特別歐盟在環保議題一般不會退讓。在歐盟市場推行碳足跡等政策背景下，一些大型跨國旅遊企業(如希爾頓、萬豪等)可能為了符合全球標準，繼續在美國主動投入ESG項目；相比之下，美國本土的中小旅遊企業可能選擇不投資，因為既沒有強制要求，也沒有相應資金支援，這會提高跨國企業收購美國公司後的合規成本。

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Potential Impacts of Trump's Presidency on Tourism-Related Investments

Tourism policy is not a central focus of Donald Trump's platform as U.S. President. However, based on Trump's consistent emphasis on trade balance and his previous administration's tourism initiatives, we can infer his potential policy directions. Haize Capital has analyzed the potential impacts of Trump's policies on tourism investments from three angles: "domestic tourism", "foreign tourism to the U.S.", and "the international expansion of U.S. tourism enterprises". These considerations reflect how Trump's policies might balance "America First" with technological innovation while finding equilibrium in visa issuance and commercial regulation.

"Explore America" as a Guiding Principle for Domestic Tourism

From the perspective of domestic tourism, Trump's policies are likely to promote the U.S. as a tourist destination, encouraging Americans to explore the country's natural landscapes, culture, and historical heritage. This approach can be compared to China's "Red Tourism" campaign in 2004, but with enhanced scope. In 2020, Trump pushed for the "Explore America Tax Credit" bill, which failed to pass Congress. With a unified Republican-controlled Senate and House, we expect similar initiatives to resurface, potentially at a larger scale. For instance, subsidies could be extended to both consumers (families, students) and businesses (restaurants, airlines, hotels, cruise lines, and attractions). Particularly in economically challenged areas (e.g., rural regions and small towns), tourism infrastructure investments could drive local economic growth.

Local Giants to Lead Technological Innovation

During Trump's previous term, he signed the "Extension of the Travel Promotion Act of 2009," reauthorizing funding for Brand USA, a tourism promotion organization. Similar to a national tourism board but operating independently as a non-profit, Brand USA is partially funded by the government and led by a board that includes executives from Hyatt Hotels (NYSE: H), Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE), and Disney (NYSE: DIS). Future upgrades in the U.S. tourism industry will require not only infrastructure development but also advancements in tourism technology, particularly in payment systems, social marketing, and data processing. Trump might rely on Brand USA or establish similar organizations. Although the technological expertise of such organizations' board members may not be top-tier globally or even nationally, their influence in directing technological investments and implementations will likely remain significant.

Visa Policy with a Balanced Strategy

Tightening visa policies under Trump is widely expected. From the perspective of foreign tourists visiting the U.S., his approach to Chinese visas presents particular challenges. According to data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), about 54% of undocumented immigrants in 2021 entered the U.S. illegally, primarily via the U.S.-Mexico border, while 46% overstayed their visas. Strengthening border control can address illegal crossings quickly, but addressing visa overstays will require tightening visa policies. While China is not a major source of illegal immigrants to the U.S. (accounting for only 1.9% in 2022), political narratives may amplify this perception. From a trade balance perspective, however, Chinese tourists spent approximately $15 billion in the U.S. in 2019 (pre-pandemic), with an average spend of $4,137 per person. While post-pandemic recovery has been slow, this expenditure still surpasses the total and per capita spending of U.S. tourists in China. Tightening visa policies could exacerbate the revenue gap. Considering potential trade tensions with China over tariffs, redirecting focus to tourists from Europe, Japan, and South Korea as substitute markets will be essential. However, distinguishing high-spending Chinese tourists as a separate group could be beneficial. We foresee the introduction of special visa categories for business or high-end travelers, potentially under the guise of "cultural exchange." This could also appeal domestically, emphasizing China's admiration for U.S. culture. In this context, educational tourism may remain a priority, with potential for further market segmentation.

Infrastructure Investments to Spur U.S.-EU Partnerships

Trump is likely to invest in infrastructure to support tourism, focusing primarily on transportation projects such as highway expansions, airport upgrades, and rail and metro extensions. These developments will enhance the convenience of domestic travel and indirectly boost tourism. Infrastructure investments will also create significant job opportunities. However, given that the world's top 10 largest infrastructure companies by market capitalization are in China, the U.S. will likely exclude Chinese participation—a missed opportunity for both sides. This situation could create growth opportunities for companies further down the list, such as Spain's ACS Group (BME: ACS) or France's Vinci SA (EPA: DG). While not as large as their Chinese counterparts, European infrastructure companies may benefit from a wave of U.S.-EU joint ventures to participate in U.S. infrastructure projects.

U.S. Giants to Dominate Further in the Domestic Market

From the perspective of U.S. tourism enterprises expanding internationally, Trump's past policies have leaned toward deregulation to support domestic tourism businesses. This may involve relaxing innovation-related safety, accountability, and antitrust regulations, which some companies view as barriers to growth, particularly in industries like autonomous driving, eVTOL, and OTAs. Lowering restrictions could lead to a "stronger gets stronger" phenomenon among U.S. giants, potentially driving mergers that create more comprehensive industry leaders. Imagine the potential synergy of Booking (NASDAQ: BKNG) combining AI applications with Tripadvisor's (NASDAQ: TRIP) extensive review database. Subsequently, Trump might push for other countries to relax market access for U.S. tourism businesses and services, though the outcome in China could differ. Despite China's State Council's recent proposal to "expand high-level opening-up and attract more foreign investment," foreign tourism companies face significant challenges in China, not solely due to policy barriers but also because of price/service competition and user habits. Booking and Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) struggled in China, illustrating these challenges. The difficulty for U.S. tourism companies to profit in China also affects inbound U.S. tourism, potentially hindering new tourism agreements and expanding flight routes.

Diverging ESG Standards for Domestic vs. Multinational Companies

Trump is highly likely to relax sustainability requirements under ESG, particularly around carbon emissions. This could attract cost-driven investors seeking high returns without stringent environmental constraints, such as developers of traditional hotels and theme parks, viewing the U.S. as a "lower-cost" tourism investment market. However, while domestic players might face less pressure, multinational companies aiming to enter international markets would still encounter restrictions, particularly in the EU, which remains firm on environmental issues. For example, multinational tourism companies (like Hilton and Marriott) may continue investing in ESG initiatives to meet global standards, even if U.S. regulations are relaxed. Conversely, smaller U.S.-based tourism businesses might opt out of ESG investments due to the lack of mandates and financial support, potentially raising compliance costs for multinationals acquiring U.S. companies.

Conclusion

Trump's potential tourism policies could drive domestic growth and infrastructure investments while posing challenges in visa strategy and international market competitiveness. The divergence in ESG approaches between domestic and multinational players may further reshape the investment landscape in U.S. tourism.

標籤 Label： Trump BKNG ExploreAmerica BrandUSA Booking.com H DAL OTA eVTOL ESG Invest AutonomousVehicles Hyatt Hilton Marriott