亞洲OTA市場爭奪戰背後的投資機會
Investment Opportunities Behind the Battle for the Asian OTA Market

海擇短評 Haize Comment：

亞洲OTA市場爭奪戰背後的投資機會

我們認為，無論是想彎道超車或穩固優勢，亞太市場的部分細分旅遊領域將是未來1-3年的重要焦點。攜程在中國境內市場的分項成績單，恰恰可能是未來亞太旅遊市場的決勝契機，將會產生許多投資機遇。海擇資本說明於下：

1. 本地玩樂產品：供應商將受益來自旅遊行業的增量。

活動體驗早已是近年備受重視的市場，但疫前”異地”色彩更重，主要以景區門票、體驗、小交通、上網產品為主。但疫後OTA逐步走向”本地”化，用攜程的說法，旅遊要體驗當地人的生活，比如時令特色美食與文化，特別是文化類的音樂會、展覽和體育賽事；而用Airbnb的說法，真正的旅遊需求圍繞“本地“，會從週五晚與家人的活動開始，取代去餐廳與在家裡看 Netflix，其實指的都是本地玩樂領域的機會。

2. 團隊旅遊產品：高端旅行拜疫情崛起。

雖然難以想像，但在Q3攜程集團度假事業收入YoY增長17%時，其出境團隊旅遊的收入增長了三位數。一方面這反映了團隊旅遊相對于自由行復甦滯後；一方面也顯示，在部分組團社因疫情淡出市場後，帶有風險性(如非洲旅遊)、稀缺性(如極地郵輪)、性價比高(組團社基於規模讓利)的行程，仍然有足夠的空白市場，甚至空白到讓不少新旅行社因此崛起，它們不是只賣高端產品的旅行社，但是高端產品是它們的核心收入來源。

3. 銀髮客群：針對老年人的內容、社群與產品，有爆發潛力。

銀髮族(老年人口)的旅行需求顯示巨大的潛力和增長，東亞將高度受惠。部分原因是東亞共同處於老年化環境，群體需求會被尊重；部分原因是民智已開，老年群體也更重視主體的自我實現。本年前三個季度，攜程50歲及以上用戶的預訂量YoY增長26%，高於其他年齡段，其中又以61至65歲年齡組增幅最大；除了訂單量大，消費能力也不差，一線和新一線城市的老年成員更偏向航空旅行與居住高星酒店。銀髮族也正成為線上旅遊內容的積極貢獻者，雖然人數上僅占創作者的7%，但產生了超過10%的旅遊內容，年產量更增長40%，這都顯示了銀髮族的消費潛力。

4. 日本地域：外資OTA在日本的競合強度將加劇。

疫後日本處於旅遊目的地必爭之地，但有趣的是，目前沒有哪家外資OTA具有絕對優勢。Trip.com Brand在Q3成為許多國家/地區市場下載量最大的OTA應用，包括港、澳、台、韓、新、馬、泰，唯獨日本不在其中。日本一直是Airbnb重視但始終不得其法的9大潛在市場之一，預計2025年從支付切入，尋找產品與市場的契合點。而Booking今年10月才在日本發生因拖欠佣金被業主集體訴訟的醜聞，顯然也頗有心有餘而力不足之勢。看來，通過投資/收購補強在日本的影響力，一定會是外資OTA的重要考慮。不過，最後也不能排除誰都拿不下，由日系OTA的Rakuten Tarvel與Jalan共分日本客源大餅的可能性。

5. ESG投資是進階OTA的必備高配：

美國新總統川普基於美國優先，高概率會比照上任期，從無益於美國企業的多邊組織“退群”，而對亞洲群雄來說，ESG的投入也可能從必做的合規重點，變成為競技時的自我要求，投入深度將有所調整。不過，有志于廣大歐洲市場與(脫亞入歐的)日本市場的玩家，仍必須兼顧與ESG相關的創新技術和政策趨勢，特別是碳足跡/碳補償、永續住宿和社區旅遊/地方創生等方向。只是，也許針對這些方向的技術、平台、系統、金融服務等投資，暫時以社會影響力為主，財務回報尚難規模化。

值得注意的是，在國際化的層面，攜程走得是一條與國內同業迥然不同的路。美團走向與中國在地緣政治更沒有風險的中東，同程則孤注單壓日本地區與酒管行業。如果要跟著攜程財報關注亞太市場的投資機會，不只要留意眾OTA的運營能力，可能大國在政治軍事的競合，也是左右成敗的關鍵。

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Investment Opportunities Behind the Battle for the Asian OTA Market

We believe that whether aiming to leapfrog competitors or consolidate its position, some niche travel segments in the Asia-Pacific market will be key focus areas over the next 1-3 years. Ctrip’s domestic performance may offer a blueprint for competing in the Asia-Pacific market and reveal significant investment opportunities. Haize Capital has identified the following areas of potential growth:

1. Local Experiences: Suppliers will benefit from incremental demand in the tourism industry.

Activities and experiences have gained prominence in recent years. Before the pandemic, the focus was on “non-local” offerings such as attraction tickets, small transport services, and internet connectivity products. Post-pandemic, OTAs are shifting toward localization. Ctrip emphasizes that travel should immerse tourists in the lives of locals, featuring seasonal delicacies and cultural experiences such as concerts, exhibitions, and sports events. Similarly, Airbnb identifies true travel demand as revolving around "local" activities, starting with Friday night outings with family, replacing dining out or watching Netflix at home—both pointing to opportunities in the local experiences sector.

2. Group Travel Products: Luxury travel sees a resurgence post-pandemic.

Although surprising, Ctrip reported triple-digit YoY growth in outbound group travel revenue while its overall vacation business grew by 17%. This indicates a delayed recovery of group travel compared to independent travel. Additionally, niche group tours with risks (e.g., African safaris), scarcity (e.g., polar cruises), or cost advantages (due to economies of scale) have created a blank slate for new travel agencies to thrive. While not exclusively high-end agencies, luxury products often form their core revenue.

3. Silver Economy: Elderly-focused content, communities, and products show explosive potential.

The travel demand among older adults holds immense growth potential, particularly in East Asia. Aging populations and increased awareness of self-actualization in these societies drive this trend. In the first three quarters of this year, Ctrip reported a 26% YoY growth in bookings by users aged 50 and above, outperforming other age groups, with the 61-65 age bracket seeing the highest growth. These travelers, especially from Tier 1 and emerging Tier 1 cities, prefer air travel and luxury hotels. Moreover, seniors are becoming active contributors to online travel content, representing 7% of creators but generating over 10% of content, with annual output growing by 40%, highlighting their purchasing power.

4. Japan as a Strategic Battleground: Foreign OTAs face intensified competition.

Post-pandemic, Japan remains a must-win destination, but no foreign OTA has achieved absolute dominance. Trip.com Brand ranked as the top OTA app in several markets, including Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand—but not Japan. Japan has long been a focus for Airbnb, which plans to integrate payment solutions to align products with market needs by 2025. Meanwhile, Booking faced a collective lawsuit from Japanese hotel owners over unpaid commissions in October, highlighting its challenges. Strengthening influence in Japan through investments or acquisitions will likely be a priority for foreign OTAs. However, it is also possible that local OTAs such as Rakuten Travel and Jalan may continue to share the domestic market.

5. ESG Investments: A necessity for advanced OTAs.

With former President Trump prioritizing “America First” policies, it is likely the U.S. will withdraw from multilateral organizations that do not benefit U.S. businesses. For Asian OTAs, ESG investments may shift from compliance requirements to competitive advantages. Players targeting Europe or Japan must continue prioritizing ESG-related innovations and policies, particularly in carbon footprint reduction, sustainable lodging, and community-based tourism. Investments in these areas, such as technology, platforms, systems, and financial services, may initially focus more on social impact than scalable financial returns.

Key Takeaways

On the internationalization front, Ctrip has taken a path distinct from its domestic peers. Meituan is expanding into geopolitically lower-risk regions like the Middle East, while Tongcheng focuses solely on Japan and the hotel management industry. For those tracking Asia-Pacific investment opportunities through Ctrip’s financial performance, it is crucial to evaluate not only OTAs' operational capabilities but also the influence of geopolitical and military competition among major nations.

標籤 Label： TCOM BKNG ABNB Booking.com Trip.com Airbnb Japan ThingsToDo PackageTour ESG Invest Accommodation